It looks like the 13th general election will not be held early next year after all - most likely towards the middle of 2012 instead. Umno watchers say after the recent annual assembly, it has become clear the party and the BN coalition it leads will be headed for steep losses if Prime Minister Najib Razak tried to stage GE-13 in January or February, as he had been expected to.
Uninspiring leadership and a lack of vision
Top on the list of impediments was Najib's failure to inspire his party and the nation at the assembly. Instead of charting a course for the Malays and Malaysians, he could only whip out tired old messages that only Umno could protect the Malays, while bashing the opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
The RM250mil NFC financial debacle involving Women's chief Shahrziat Jalil and her family was also another destabilizing factor. The Shahrizats have been accused of misusing as much as RM181mil from a government soft loan of RM250mil to pay themselves huge salaries, buy condos, car, holiday trips, residential land and so forth.
Najib and his deputy have fiercely defended her, rather than seek accountability at arm's length. This was possibly the worst thing they could have done as it gave Umno delegates at last week's assembly plus Malaysians across the country the impression that the party's ruling elite condoned graft, and would do everything to cover up for each other.
"We are now looking at May or June. The hints are already there, Khairy (Jamaluddin the Youth chief) has said he can only give the list of candidates for his wing in another 2 months' time and Ali Rustam (the Malacca chief minister) has also been quick to admit that the state's list of candidates is not ready," an Umno veteran toldMalaysia Chronicle.
"Of course, those who smiled and rushed to say they are only too happy to let Najib decide will be the ones to watch. These are the usual two-headed snakes and you can be sure they will stir up the biggest problems and infighting."
It was clear he was referring to leaders including ex-Terengganu chief minister Idris Jusoh, who has a long running feud with his successor Ahmad Said. Rivalry among party chieftains also exist in Negri Sembilan, Perlis, Selangor and Johor.
The Mother of all Infighting set to erupt
But perhaps, the greatest 'show' put on was when Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin declared he was "the most loyal deputy", in a bid to douse talk that he was gunning for Najib's position in party polls slated for the second half of 2012.
It is significant that while the Umno deputy president pledged loyalty, he did not promise not to challenge Najib for the presidency.
"That's right, the biggest rivalry will be between the two of them and neither can afford to let go or to give way, because after GE-13 will be the Umno party polls. Whether Umno wins or loses the federal government, there will still be a fight to be the Umno president. Mind you, there are a lot of assets in Umno and it can always make a comeback in GE-14. Whoever has more MPs on his side will have the stronger chance of winning the presidency, which will still be a much coveted post," the Umno veteran said.
"If Najib loses the federal government, of course, he can kiss the presidency goodbye but there are others like Abdullah Badawi and Mahathir Mohamad. They are all waiting at the wings and will also want to have their men in place, so that they too have better bargaining power and get a stab at the top seat later on."
How many seats each for Pakatan and BN
However, there are some who believe that GE-13 was more likely to be in March or at latest April as Umno had to hold its polls by October and needed 6 months for the entire process, which also involves a lengthy nominations process at the divisions throughout the peninsula and Sabah.
Counteracting these factors is Selangor Pakatan Rakyat's announcement that they would not hold simultaneous elections unless GE-13 was held after June 2012. Pundits also point out that Najib was now trying to delay GE-13 as much as he can because he needs time to try and win the hearts and minds of the people.
However, instead of shifting to the centre, Najib is expected to move further to the right and the Pakatan Rakyat led by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim can expect a very rocky six months ahead.
Non-Malay Malaysians, especially the Chinese, and those of Christian faith are also expected to be mercilessly attacked as Umno and Najib pushed ahead with their ill-advised strategy to 'corner' the Malay electorate.
"They have already given up on the non-Malay vote. This is why some of the delegates at the assembly called for BN to field only Umno candidates at GE-13. Why give MCA or Gerakan or MIC any chance when they will surely lose. In Sarawak, they are banking on Taib Mahmud's PBS and have written off the other parties which are likely to lose to DAP and PKR. In Sabah, they stand to lose many seats and basically can depend only on Sabah Umno and even that is shaky because Musa Aman (the chief minister) is so unpopular," the pundit said.
Latest odds racked up by election watchers now put Pakatan ahead of Umno, winning between 120 to 122 seats overall and Umno 102 to 100 seats. Gerakan and MIC are expected to be wiped out, while MCA may retain at most 3 of their 15 seats.
Malaysia Chronicle
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