GE-13: Najib's dilemma - who, why and when?

Looking at the current issues and major problems that are now confronting the Najib administration, it is timely for me to analyze our political leadership process, especially now that BN is being confronted by the Anwar factor.

Politics is about belief and not necessary the truth as in the case of Anwar Ibrahim, who had exploited other people's position so long as he could forge ahead to overthrow the current BN government under Prime Minister Najib Razak.

Anwar's recent public statement in support of Israel's security position in the Arab world against the Palestine (PLO) has created a wave here and abroad. By doing so, Anwar hopes to win back the support of the President United States and the US Congress, which he had lost in the last 2 years. Anwar speaks different languages to different audiences all the time, and when he is being confronted, he will always have another answer to defend his own guilt.

Pak Lah to blame for GE-12 aberrations

Malaysia has gone through 11 general elections safe and sound under the previous UMNO leadership. In the last general election, the 12th, the BN lost 4 important states and failed to recapture Kelantan. All blames went to former premier Abdullah Badawi for the mistakes that he had made, whether intentionally or otherwise. Although, I am privileged to know some of Pak Lah's political and administrative shortcomings, I am not willing to share my information publicly with Malaysia Chronicle and its readers.

In a nutshell, all the 11 general elections were won by BN on a democratic footing without much demonstration or serious condemnation from the voters and the people. Even the opposition parties, DAP and PAS, were quiet. However, whenever GE rolls along, it is normal even for UMNO and other BN component parties to squabble for seats.

Now, Najib's political camp is concentrating on nominating only "winnable candidates". Some prominent past leaders have put in their two cents worth of comments, notably ex-premier Mahathir Mohamad and former DPM Musa Hitam. I fully support the statement by Musa Hitam recently, "winnable candidates" are the final decision of the voters, either in Parliament or in the state assembly.

Rest assured, the BN leadership would have their own Standard Operating Procedure in selecting winnable candidates based on a number of factors. These will definitely take into the consideration of the voters and populace in the respective constituencies. I hope the political consultants will come up with the right criteria as part of the SOP.

"A nice guy"

Now, Najib is a nice guy and a pragmatic leader. He is also known to be a very soft-hearted person though he seldom minces his words. His anger and displeasure seldom shows on his face. At 58, he still looks boyish and handsome especially when he blushes with his "red face trademark". Having said that, how is Najib going to appease those frustrated party members who will not be selected, even though they have been nominated by their own divisions from UMNO and other BN parties? Seats are limited within each respective party and it's a difficult task for Najib and his vetting committee to agree on the winnable candidates submitted for final endorsement to represent BN in the 13th general election.

Those candidates dropped by the BN leadership because they were not their party's choice are bound to party-hop and sabotage the winnable candidates even before the nomination day and final leg of the GE-13 campaign. Some of those dropped may be notable divisional leaders themselves, but had tainted their positions due to corruption or have lost the favor of their party's central leadership.

So against such risks, Najib has to be brave and tough to carry out political reforms not only in UMNO but also in other BN component parties, without fear or favour. An example is the appointment of Ong Tee Keat, whose nomination as the Pandan BN chairman was kept in abeyance until its recent endorsement - with or without the MCA's green light. This is something for the current MCA leadership to take note of.

Don't let Johor go the way of Selangor

Coming back to the dilemma of the current UMNO-BN leadership, Najib will have to face a different set of political and administration scenarios than his predecessors. Not only is there the squabbling that always comes because of the limited seats, he also has to seek the endorsement of some of the State Rulers - the Sultans - who are also interested to play politics so that their reign over their states will be smooth running and to their general satisfaction.

One state that needs to be highlighted is Johor. It is one of the most important and vibrant states, with the Iskandar Malaysia corridor strategically to the nation - not just Johor itself. Therefore, it is vital that the Sultan endorses the right candidates for the top state leadership. Otherwise, the development progress in the Iskandar corridor will be delayed. Same goes for some of the other Economic Development Corridors.

It is indeed a huge responsibility and a real mind boggling effort for Najib to get the right balance and mix. It worries those of us who are loyalists to the party and the BN government. Najib also has to deal with human problems including sexual assaults that are public knowledge, some of which involve BN leaders and their supporters.

MAY, JUNE or NOVEMBER 2012

As the incumbent BN leader and Head of Government, Najib has the final say and decision on when to call for the coming 13th general election. This is a million dollar question, which even during the recent Maulidur Rasul celebration in Putrajaya, one of the main speakers joked about it:

"People asked Najib when is the 13th general election at almost all the press conferences after the official or political functions. The speaker surprised the audience with his divined answer, i.e "Only Najib knows the date, even Allah does not know when the next general election is going to be held. IF NAJIB HIMSELF DOESN'T KNOW THEN WE ARE ALL IN DEEP TROUBLE!

In conclusion, when is the conducive date and time for GE-13, given that some of the strategic issues are yet to be resolved. Is the Election Commission in a state of readiness? What about the new SOP for winnable candidates - are UMNO-BN leaders finally agreed on the modus operandi? What about the issue of whether we should allow overseas Malaysians to vote, which is an issue that has been debated for more that 50 years?

Then, when the PM looks into his transformation programs, does he believe the people really accept the economic transformations, etc, that he has introduced to benefit the rakyat (citizens). These "feel good factors" take time to be digested and absorbed into the hearts and minds of the people.

So my fellow friends and bloggers, WHEN IS THE 13TH GENERAL ELECTION... MAY, JUNE, NOVEMBER 2012?

Datuk Mustapha Ong is an active blogger and an Umno loyalist