Inevitable defeat the reason why Najib fears GE-13 and keeps delaying it

The next General Election, the 13th, is widely expected to be called on paper between May this year and April/May next year when the five-year term of the present Parliament ends. The five-year term of Parliament is calculated from the first day of the first sitting of the first Parliament for the term/tenure.

Once Parliament is dissolved, elections would have to be held within two months.

However, if Parliament is not dissolved within its five-year term, it stands automatically dissolved at the end of that term. In that case, elections would have to be called within six months. This factor might be playing on Malaysian Prime Minister Mohd Najib Abdul Razak’s mind, desperate as he is to stretch out his term in office.

GE-13 can even be in second-half of 2013!

Najib seems to have come to the conclusion, albeit grudgingly, that there are no guarantees that he will be Prime Minister after GE 13. That may be the sole reason why his wife, Rosmah Majid, is forever off somewhere on shopping sprees if not hunting for a spot in exile at the expense of the people.

Whether Najib will be Opposition Leader and/or allowed to do so by his deputy Muhyiddin Yassin – rooting for a Mahathir dynasty -- and Mahathir Mohamad himself is a RM 1.5 billion question.

Najib does not have a mandate of his own.

He continues to shamelessly ride on that obtained by his sacked predecessor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, in 2008. Mahathir was able to get rid of Badawi because the Umno Supreme Council members, corrupt beyond redemption, are in his pocket.

Najib should have obtained his own mandate by now but he fears, as he has never feared before in his cushy life so far, the prospect of testing the electoral waters on his own.

No Prime Minister has been that fearful in the history of the country. Najib just doesn’t have the guts to ignore Mahathir and his (Mahathir’s) Umno Supreme Council and call for the 13th GE and accept like a man whatever is in store for him. Neither has he the foresight to make a deal with the opposition alliance to accept his faction at least into their government-in-the-making and save the political dynasty built by his late father.

Too risky for BN to call GE-13 now

There are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies in politics, only permanent interests. That doesn’t mean the opposition alliance will accept Mahathir as well unless he agrees to flee the country for good and leave his ill-gotten gains behind.

There’s too much at stake to go for the GE 13 now and even go for it at all, not just for Najib who is not that big a factor, but Umno, the establishment and the entire system which stands at risks of being dismantled and many of its members incarcerated for very long stretches, if not for good.

This is one reason why the Prime Minister declared not so long ago that he can always do what his father, 2nd Prime Minister Abdul Razak, did in the wake of the searing race riots between the non-Malay communities and the Malay-speaking communities in Peninsular Malaysia in 1969. However, Najib was quick to add that he “would not do so”. But why mention it if he has no plans to do so? Was that a veiled threat to vote him back into power or else?

Najib was referring to the declaration of a state of emergency, the shutting down of Parliament, suspension of democracy, the shutting out of the political parties, and the setting up of the National Operations Council under Abdul Razak as Direction of Operations.

Abdul Razak also set up the National Consultative Council, with its members drawn from various walks of life but not the political parties, in lieu of the disbanded Parliament. He chaired the NCC.

Abdul Razak went on to form the Barisan Nasional, a concept which circumscribed the democratic process and denied the majority meaningful participation by endorsing elite power-sharing. The BN which was formed included the opposition parties which had made spectacular gains during the 1969 polls.

Emergency rule and forcing DAP to join BN

It will be a sheer miracle if Najib does not do what his father did in 1969/1970 considering his sudden morbid fear of going to the polls and especially with Mahathir breathing down his neck to achieve the impossible: get back the ruling Barisan Nasional’s (BN) coveted two-thirds majority in Parliament.

There are attempts being made to force the Dap to join the BN.

At the same time, Umno does not seem to reckon with the fact that its legislators will abandon Mahathir for good – notwithstanding his Big Black Book of Everyone’s Sins -- and flee in droves to the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) after the 13th GE “in order to buy political protection and avoid a stint behind bars, if not bankruptcy and/or the prospect of being reduced suddenly to abject poverty”.

When that happens, Taib in Sarawak -- notwithstanding his and his maternal Uncle Abdul Rahman Yakub’s Big Black Book of Everyone’s Sins -- will become an instant turncoat, and will be among the first to fall down on his hands and knees shamelessly in Putrajaya and beg Anwar Ibrahim for forgiveness. Taib will sell anyone, even his recently dead mother whose funeral he didn’t attend, to get what he wants.

The Mahathir factor

Even Mahathir has now concluded that Najib will not be able to win back the two-thirds majority in Parliament, let alone win GE with a simple majority, and is urging that GE be further delayed.

Mahathir’s excuse for the delay is that Najib needs to win back the Chinese. How so? Accept the Dap?

What will Mahathir advise Najib next: declare a state of emergency to force Dap into a corner?

He didn’t mention the Indians who, although not have a single ethnic-majority seat in Malaysia, decide the winners in 67 of the Parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia.

Mahathir also did not mention the need for Taib Mahmud to win back the Chinese in Sarawak. There are seven Chinese parliamentary seats at stake are set to fall to the Pakatan Rakyat (PR), the opposition alliance.

East Malaysia

Sarawak itself would be an unmitigated disaster of sorts considering that the BN is not expected to do any better in Peninsular Malaysia than it did in 2008 and the fact that it cannot repeat its last performance in Sabah.

In the Land Below the Wind, the assessment among the opposition is that it can take 40 seats in the state assembly i.e. 18 non-Muslim Dusun – including Kadazan or urban Dusun and Murut – 16 Muslim seats including Dusun Muslim and eight Chinese seats.

This will translate into at least 20 seats in Parliament and coupled with the seven Chinese Parliamentary seats in neighbouring Sarawak, the opposition alliance will have a rich haul of 27 seats in the next Parliament from Malaysian Borneo. This assumes that the opposition, in a worst case scenario, will not win any Dayak or Malay parliamentary seats in Sarawak.

The spoiler in all this is the Sabah Progressive Party (Sapp) which is determined to go for the 40 state seats – the same seats expected to be won by the opposition -- in Sabah.

In return, they are prepared to allow the opposition to contest the other 20 – and unwinnable – state seats at stake in Sabah and also allow them to contest the majority of the 25 Parliament seats in the state. Labuan provides another seat in Parliament.

It’s difficult to get over the feeling that Sapp is in cahoots with Umno to sink the opposition’s chances in Sabah.

Electoral reforms

Najib has previously cited the need for ensuring that electoral reforms are in place before calling for GE 13. We must wonder what is his interpretation and understanding of electoral reforms if not doing something to favour his electoral chances.

The issue of electoral reforms only arose because the opposition pointed out that the electoral process was not free and fair. After the so-called electoral reforms now supposed to be underway, elections will be even less free and fair to the opposition under some cosmetics changes to give some semblance of being even-handed. It’s a numbers game.

Najib had also mentioned not so long ago that he wants his GTP (Government Transformation Programme), ETP (Economic Transformation Programme), KPI (Key Performance Index) to be all in place before elections can be called.

All these are cosmetics and gimmicks on paper. His latest desperate gamble, instead of introducing real reforms, is to keeping throwing public money, but only on paper, at problems to buy voter support: new salaries for the already bloated and underworked civil service of 1.4 million; RM 100 each for school children; RM 500 each for those households earning less than RM 3,000 per month; some measly funds, again on paper, for Hindu temples even as they are demolished, Tamil schools, mission schools, Chinese interests and the like.

Inevitable Umno will lose power

God alone knows where all this is leading in the weeks and months ahead. We should all get down on our hands and knees and start praying for our country.

It’s pay back time for all the evil that has been perpetrated during the last half a century and more of rule by those who stepped into the power vacuum created in the country when the colonial British authorities departed for good.

However, order can only come from chaos. It was Dr Stephen Hawking, the famed University of Cambridge physicist, who reminded us that the only predictable property of the universe is chaos.

Malaysia will not be under Umno and BN forever. The country cannot be an oasis of peace, progress and stability forever given the gross injustices being perpetrated in the country by the powers-that-be.

All things, whether good or bad, - ugly, beautiful or evil – must come to an end one way or other. There’s no escaping karma – the scientific law of cause and effect – which is neutral but is perceived in the human mind as good, bad, ugly, beautiful or evil.

It’s only those who can accept his or her karma that can neutralise it. The same goes for nations and political parties, especially Umno, who has had far too good for the past 55 years.

Malaysia Chronicle