Remember the adage, an enemy of your enemy is your friend. Well then in that case, I'll like to introduce to you, my new friends called Zaki Zahid, Ghani Othman, Lim Kang Hoo and an entity to whom the Mahabloggers refer to most disrespectfully as the Ghost Of Johor. Out of respect to the institution the Ghost of Johor is supposed to represent, we shall no longer refer to it as the Ghost of Johor.
The above four folks have been the target of a lot of attacks by the Big 3 Mahabloggers with a Big Cat named Ai getting increasingly guilty by association. Whatever they have been doing, on behalf of the 80% Malaysians who oppose Dr Mahathir, I would like to say
"THANK YOU"
to these brave men.
And why is that? By laying out the attacks, one must know that this is coordinated and planned.This is not a one off or just random whacks, no it bears the trademark style of an "blogger character assassination" job, a job these guys are so famous for.
And why is that? By laying out the attacks, one must know that this is coordinated and planned.This is not a one off or just random whacks, no it bears the trademark style of an "blogger character assassination" job, a job these guys are so famous for.
The question we should ask is "why?"
This is my theory.
I believe that right now, Maha cronies are being squeezed out of Johor, and for that I salute all involved. These Mahacronies would have been eyeing quick fix, land flipping, crony like contracts. However, due to the current circumstances, they find their path blocked. These folk then would have got in touch with the Mahabloggers. Money would have presumably changed hands and then the Mahabloggers would have got together to plot their strategy.
However, apart from just giving the biggest sense of euphoria to all the anti Maha's out there, I am quite surprised as what this attacks are supposed to achieve.
I think the Mahabloggers should perhaps take a bit of Ibrahim Ali's advice and to show much more deference to the institutions whose members are blue blooded. And furthermore, I find it to be the height of hypocrisy that Mahabloggers are willingly using such demeaning epithets on those institutions when they previously have savaged the DAP for much less.
"Menteri Besar Datuk Abdul Ghani Othman said Gwee was being extremely disrespectful by refusing to wear the proper attire especially the songkok in the Sultan’s presence.
The utter disrespect and rudeness to HRH Sultans now escalated to His Majesty Seri Paduka Yang DiPertuan Agong.
Yesterday, in His Majesty Seri Paduka Baginda Yang DiPertuan Agong Tuanku Mizan Zainal Abidin Ibni Sultan Mahmood official visit to Penang, the Chinese Chauvinist DAP Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng acted rude to the King. He used his index finger to point, instead of the thumb.
http://bigdogdotcom.wordpress.com/2011/06/26/return-of-the-min-yuens/
| Mana PERKASA? Benda mcm ni tak nak komen ke |
| Harap jangan jadi kes chakap tak serupa bikin... |
PS: The title "The Southern Front" refers to the situation in World War II when Nazi Germany had to face an onslaught from the Western and the Eastern front. Hopefully, the same will happen to the Mahas and "those the Mahas have insulted" will see that the order must have come from much higher powers, if not these Mahabloggers would not have proceeded.
**************************************************************
Can Johor Fall?
Well, I've got about 25 mins to try and come out with a non Parpu based posting and what better way than to call into question the common wisdom that states BN in Johor is impregnable.
Lets cut to the chase and check out this graph
The bars in red refer to DUN's based on 2008 voter demographic that is less than 60% Malay. Further interesting reading is as follows: 18 of those seats have absolute non Malay majority.Of those 18 seats, the average Chinese population is about 55%, the minimum is 36%.
The interesting distribution, in fact the major peak is at the interval between 50% - 60% Malay. The average Chinese is about 38%, the average Indian is about 7%.
Ok so what does all of this mumbo jumbo mean.
The Chinese vote is actually much less fractured than the Malay or Indian vote for that matter. If indeed the tsunami hits Johor, we can expect something like 70% of Chinese voting for Pakatan, as a minimum. (This is what happened in 2008. But in 2012, we got some new thingy called Perkasa hooray!)
The seats then look something like this
The bars in red represent areas where 70% of the Chinese vote alone accounts for greater than 35% of the total vote. So in a place like Tangkak, 70% of the Chinese vote going to Pakatan means that in the bag Pakatan has 37% of the total vote. All they need to do is get another 13%, which is highly achievable for them to take the seat.
On the other hand, places like Semarang, Sedili and Pasir Raja have a high Malay representation, so 70% of the Chinese vote still means nothing.
The black line shows where the DUN majority lies.
Lets look at it in finer detail, all areas where Pakatan has in the bag 30% of the total electorate, by virtue of taking 70% of the Chinese vote.
What do we have. The DUNs in red are virtually in the bag for Pakatan. 12 DUNs in all.
There are a further 23 Duns where Pakatan is competitive because of the Chinese vote, but still not assured of victory. But in virtually all of these DUN's Pakatan has a base of at about 30% of the vote. So they are very competitive.
If Pakatan slams the initial 12, and wins 50-50 the above middle ground duns, then we get Pakatan with 12 + 0.5*23 = 23 seats in the Johor DUN. BN will have 33 seats.
So BN still retains with a slim 10 seat majority, prone to hopping of course.
Maybe not enough to take the Government, but that is assuming the rest of the seats work towards BN. And we are completely discounting PAS or PKR making in roads into the Malay dominated areas, which you never know.
Conclusion:
Well looking from a strict demographic view, it is certainly very easy for Pakatan to at least have 23 elected representatives in the Johor Assembly if the current polemic still continues. An absolute victory is still possible, they would just need to win an additional 5, and who knows, the Kluk Klek could deliver upsets of their own.
Lets cut to the chase and check out this graph
The bars in red refer to DUN's based on 2008 voter demographic that is less than 60% Malay. Further interesting reading is as follows: 18 of those seats have absolute non Malay majority.Of those 18 seats, the average Chinese population is about 55%, the minimum is 36%.
The interesting distribution, in fact the major peak is at the interval between 50% - 60% Malay. The average Chinese is about 38%, the average Indian is about 7%.
Ok so what does all of this mumbo jumbo mean.
The Chinese vote is actually much less fractured than the Malay or Indian vote for that matter. If indeed the tsunami hits Johor, we can expect something like 70% of Chinese voting for Pakatan, as a minimum. (This is what happened in 2008. But in 2012, we got some new thingy called Perkasa hooray!)
The seats then look something like this
The bars in red represent areas where 70% of the Chinese vote alone accounts for greater than 35% of the total vote. So in a place like Tangkak, 70% of the Chinese vote going to Pakatan means that in the bag Pakatan has 37% of the total vote. All they need to do is get another 13%, which is highly achievable for them to take the seat.
On the other hand, places like Semarang, Sedili and Pasir Raja have a high Malay representation, so 70% of the Chinese vote still means nothing.
The black line shows where the DUN majority lies.
Lets look at it in finer detail, all areas where Pakatan has in the bag 30% of the total electorate, by virtue of taking 70% of the Chinese vote.
There are a further 23 Duns where Pakatan is competitive because of the Chinese vote, but still not assured of victory. But in virtually all of these DUN's Pakatan has a base of at about 30% of the vote. So they are very competitive.
If Pakatan slams the initial 12, and wins 50-50 the above middle ground duns, then we get Pakatan with 12 + 0.5*23 = 23 seats in the Johor DUN. BN will have 33 seats.
So BN still retains with a slim 10 seat majority, prone to hopping of course.
Maybe not enough to take the Government, but that is assuming the rest of the seats work towards BN. And we are completely discounting PAS or PKR making in roads into the Malay dominated areas, which you never know.
Conclusion:
Well looking from a strict demographic view, it is certainly very easy for Pakatan to at least have 23 elected representatives in the Johor Assembly if the current polemic still continues. An absolute victory is still possible, they would just need to win an additional 5, and who knows, the Kluk Klek could deliver upsets of their own.
"Can Johor Fall?"....
dream on dude.
i live in muar.
dream on dude.
i live in muar.
Posted by Sir Wenger Khairy
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