After Kadir's trail-blazing resignation, timing the only issue for Ku Li and Tee Keat

Several UMNO leaders have welcomed the resignation of former Tourism minister Kadir Sheikh Fadzir, who got into trouble with outspoken comments about the endemic corruption in the party. Some called him a traitor and an ingrate but this is to be expected - UMNO needs to 'save face' after the abrupt way in which a fed-up Kadir appeared only too willing to give up his long-held membership.

Now, the deputy president of reform NGO Angkatan Amanah Merdeka or Amanah, it is clear that Kadir has better fish to fry than to cross swords with the like of UMNO sec-gen Tengku Adnan or information chief Ahmad Maslan.

Although Kadir has not said what he plans to do next, his quitting has already set off speculation if he would join an opposition party, work full-time to bring up Amanah or retire from politics. Of the three, the last option is the least likely given Kadir's renewed activism following the set-up of Amanah in July last year by another UMNO stalwart Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

Anwar congratulates Kadir for his decision

The reaction from the opposite side of the fence has been positive. Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim has welcomed Kadir's move to "join the reform agenda" while other Pakatan Rakyat leaders predict more resignations from the BN to follow. BN parties including UMNO has been slowly but visibly disintegrating over the past few years due to weak leadership, stale politics and a resistance to change with the times.

Within UMNO, while leaders including Malacca chief minister Mohd Ali Rustam have quickly denounced Kadir as a traitor, the party's refusal to cede even an inch that it might be its own policies and fault for prompting its members to surrender is a reflection of the simmering tensions in UMNO. Many members are becoming more disgruntled by the day and question whether they have any future there at all.

After 5 decades of near absolute power, the founding leaders and the families of the previous presidents now consider the party as their personal property and whoever is to head UMNO must come from either the Mahathir Mohamad family, the Abdul Razak family or the Hussein Onn family, or at least be someone who has their endorsement.

Glass ceiling and death warrant

This glass ceiling is the main barrier to new blood and talent joining UMNO. It is also the death warrant for the party. If Kadir, who has given decades of his life to UMNO, can just up and go like that, what more the younger leaders in whom ambition and passion would surely burn hotter.

An exodus is for sure, either to PKR or PAS. In a cocoon of his own, current UMNO chief and Prime Minister Najib Razak has not said one word about further democratizing UMNO or fast-tracking young talent to the top leadership. Instead, he and his minders continue to busily build a super-aura for him, much like the dictatorships of North Korea, and for the purpose of perpetuating an indefinite rule for his administration.

Given such a gloomy outlook, it is not at all surprising that all eyes are on who will next leave UMNO and BN, especially as regards the Amanah leaders. Kadir had resigned after a tell-all on UMNO’s dirty money politics. He also refused to retract what he has said, and his will not be an isolated case. Recently, other UMNO veterans like former Pulau Manis UMNO assemblyman Mohd Ariff Sabri Aziz and Negeri Sembilan UMNO veteran Aspan Alias too left UMNO for DAP, and although the pair were less senior, their move still raised eyebrows.

Ku Li next?

What about Tengku Razaleigh or Ku Li, the Amanah founder and Gua Musang MP who has been touted as a possible savior for UMNO by the centrists and left-wing in the party. After all, when Tengku Adnan publicly ticked off Kadir, his words were also meant for Ku Li, who too has been very vocal in slamming UMNO's antiquated and racist-bent politics.

But a check with pundits show that they think Ku Li might "not be ready" yet to leave UMNO as there was still an opportunity for him to replace Najib and implement the changes that he has been touting for years now. Recently, former finance minister Daim Zainuddin pointed out that Najib would have to step down if the BN did not improve on its 2008 electoral results. In such an event, Daim said he would expect Muhyiddin or a new 'challenger' to step forward. This challenger would most likely be Ku Li, who in 2008 had already challenged Najib for the party presidency but failed.

Four years have passed, and it is a different story now for Ku Li. If before he was unsure which was the winning horse, it is now clear that the politics touted by Mahathir and practiced by Najib have been rejected by the people and UMNO needs to drastically reinvent itself if its is to survive. However, at 75, time is against Ku Li although he is healthy. Even so, Ku Li is likely to want have a say in UMNO at least until the annual assembly and party polls due later this year.

Ku Li himself knows the odds well. When asked on the possibility of leaving UMNO, Ku Li recently said, "If I wanted to leave Umno, I would have done so a long time ago."

Tee Keat too bides his time

But if the 13th general elections are held before the UMNO polls, then perhaps Ku Li will decide earlier. Gua Musang is his bastion but will he contest there on UMNO's ticket? After all, it would be awkward to shift allegiance later on. For sure, Ku Li is on Najib's 'winnable list' of candidates and will be picked to defend Gua Musang in the hope that this will satisfy him and keep him quiet while earning UMNO an easy seat.

In the case of BN compatriot and Amanah colleague Ong Tee Keat, who has already given warning he plans to defend his Pandan stronghold with or without BN, his supporters say he is unlikely to be on Najib's winnable list due to blacklisting by arch rival, MCA president Chua Soi Lek who appears willing to run MCA aground just to best Tee Keat.

The question that applies to Kadir applies also to Ku Li and Ong. Will they join the Pakatan Rakyat or contest as Amanah members? Ku Li's answer when asked this question is telling, “We cannot write off anything because the possibilities are there”. Despite keeping the Pakatan door open, Ku Li's answer shows he clearly prefers to contest under his own Amanah seat.

However, Amanah may not obtain permission from the authorities to contest in elections. It was set up as an NGO, not a political party, and given the latest reaction to Kadir's critique and resignation, the UMNO-led government won't be doing it any favors.

Major shift in public sentiment towards the Pakatan

When Amamah was formed last year, UMNO was still talking about getting two-thirds majority in Parliaments. Now, UMNO is wondering if Najib can even hold onto a simple majority. Najib himself concedes his worst nightmare was a hung Parliament. Ku Li and the other Amanah members should know there has been a major shift in voter preference since, and if before they had favoured UMNO-BN, they may no longer be so keen to support or to help it now.

As for the Pakatan, they are keeping their cards close to the chest. "We remain open to all discussion and forms of co-operation with Amanah," PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle, declining to guess what was the most plausible next step Amanah would take.

Indeed, it looks like the ball is in the court of the individuals - Ku Li, Tee Keat and even Kadir. They will only get a permit to cotest under the Amanah ticket if they agree to act as spoilers for the BN versus the Pakatan. And while, individually, they are strong leaders, chances are high they will lose out to BN or Pakatan should these two major coalitions field candidates against them.

Amanah too must realize that the mindset and perception of people have changed towards the Pakatan, which is now seen as a savior for Malaysia. There seems to be a growing national purpose - to dislodge the UMNO-BN and put in a new and fresh government who will resolve all the ills of the past. That is the ardent wish of Malaysians.

Whether Amanah survives as an NGO depends on the sincerity of its leaders. If they choose wrongly, they will be castigated and thrown into the same rubbish bin that houses the likes of Perkasa, Jati and Kita. These are seen as the bad guys who sold out for money to help UMNO continue to oppress and bully the people.

The decision is actually a 'no-brainer' for Amanah. Perhaps, it is the timing that is now the last issue. But once Parliament is dissolved, Malaysians can expect to see new battle lines drawn. And it is guaranteed, they will be shocked!

Malaysia Chronicle