Analysts say BN will overshadow PR in upcoming polls

March 18, 2012

Pundits predict a BN victory in the upcoming elections. - file pic

KUALA LUMPUR, March 18 — The upcoming 13th General Election has set political pundits into a pre-poll frenzy churning political forecasts and analyses in the shadow of pre-election preparations by the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalitions according to a Bernama Online report today. Although the last GE saw BN lose more than one third of its parliamentary seats, most analysts are of the opinion that the current coalition government can retain its grip on the federal government. The Bernama report argues that a victory for BN in the next GE is high due to the various affirmative projects carried out by the government such as the 1 Malaysia and Government Transformation Programme. Political analysts such as Penang-based Datuk Cheah See Kian believe that although supporters from both sides remain loyal to their party of choice, it is the votes from the neutrals that count and could help to swing the fate of a political party.

According to Dato Cheah the decisive factor in determining the victorious side in the next election are the twomillion new and young voters will cast their votes for the first time. His opinion is echoed by Liew Chin Tong who is DAP’s strategist and member of Parliament for Bukit Bendera who stresses the important role that the neutrals play in determining the victor and the loser. YB Liew adds that the 10 per cent vote swing from the middle ground voters matters and new personalities, differing sentiments and changing themes influence votes.

YB Liew highlighst that the BN’s vote share has declined  by eight per centbetween the 1995 and 1999 elections, and continued to plunge in 2004 with a 13 per cent drop in vote share. He added that the Opposition won 54 out of PR’s 83 seats in Peninsula Malaysia with a majority of less than 10 per cent also known as ‘marginal seats’. However, the 10 per cent swing in BN’s favour in the next GE will render PR with only 29 seats to win. Nevertheless, a 10 per cent swing in PR’s favour would have a huge blow on BN and could cause a threat to its grip on power.

Throughout the country’s election history, the closest BN has been to winning more than two thirds (66.67 per cent) of popular votes was in the 1995 GE where it won 84.38 per cent of Parliament seats. BN enjoyed its best elections in 200 when it won 90 per cent of the seats with only 63.9 per cent of votes. 

However, more votes do not necessarily translate to more seats, and vice versa. According the the BN Selangor Publicity chief, Datuk Yap Pian Hon, explains that a large voter turnout for PR will not guarantee a resounding win for the party since demographics and other factors are the determining factors for the most number of seats.

According to Yap, the 2008 GE saw a split in votes between the Malays and non-Malays that resulted in the 82 parliamentary seats won by PR. He added that the final tally showed that 90 per cent Indian voters chose to cast their ballots in favour of PR followed by 70 per cent of the Chinese voters and 50 per cent of the Malay voters. However Dato Yap asserts that the Indian votes are currently split 50-50 between BN and PR and a small increase in Chinese votes has taken place bringing the total to 80 per cent. He stressed that the Malay voters have the final say in determining the fate of the two coalitions in the next GE as they make 60 per cent of the voters in this country. The increase in the votes from the Malay voters can make up the decline in the non-Malay votes for BN.

Yap maintains that PR will remain as the Opposition unless it manage to win a simple majority of 112 which is 94 out of the 165 seats in Peninsula Malaysia and 18 out of the 57 seats in Sabah, Sarawak, and Labuan. Analysts doubt a PR win in Sabah and Sarawak as it is hampered by problems such as logistics, candidacy, support and a strong election machinery. PR is predicted to perform well in Chinese-majority areas such as Kudat, Tawau, Kota Kinabalu and Sandakan as overall support for in Sabah and Sarawak is 55 per cent, and for PR only30 per cent. 

The outcome of the 13th GE may look grim for PR, but an undaunted Liew Chin Tong is optimistic of a victory for the Opposition hopeful that the “magic of campaigning, which can tip the balance