While Pakatan Rakyat is gung-ho about capturing one-third of the parliamentary seats in Johor - or even unseating BN in this southern stronghold of the ruling coalition - it is first of all seen to be in dire need of a solution to its Gelang Patah parliamentary constituency stalemate.
The stalemate arises from both Johor DAP state chief Dr Boo Cheng Hau and his counterpart in PKR Chua Jui Meng (left) eyeing the Gelang Patah seat and if this problem is not resolved, political observers believe, the seeds of destruction ruining Pakatan's chances will be sowed in this key battle for Johor.
Gelang Patah is a huge constituency of more than 100,000 voters and comprises two state seats - Skudai and Nusajaya.
With 54.3 percent Chinese, 33.85 percent Malay and 11.7 percent Indian voters (going by 2008 figures), it is one of the very few Chinese-majority parliamentary constituencies in Johor, making it a preferred battlefield for the opposition.
Another reason for opposition to conquer Gelang Patah is Nusajaya, not for its Legoland Malaysia and Hello Kitty Theme Park, but its symbolic status.
Currently held by Umno, Nusajaya not only houses Kota Iskandar, the state government administrative centre where the new official residence of the menteri besar, state assembly building, and state government departments complex are also located, but it is also at the heart of the Iskandar Malaysia economic development region, the fastest growing zone in Johor.
It is therefore no surprise that Boo and Chua are eyeing to be the MP for Gelang Patah.
It is also one of the four 'black seats' the BN has identified in Johor, as revealed by Information, Communications and Culture Minister Rais Yaim last month. The other three are thr parliamentaryh seats of Kluang, Bakri and Batu Pahat.
The stalemate arises from both Johor DAP state chief Dr Boo Cheng Hau and his counterpart in PKR Chua Jui Meng (left) eyeing the Gelang Patah seat and if this problem is not resolved, political observers believe, the seeds of destruction ruining Pakatan's chances will be sowed in this key battle for Johor.Gelang Patah is a huge constituency of more than 100,000 voters and comprises two state seats - Skudai and Nusajaya.
With 54.3 percent Chinese, 33.85 percent Malay and 11.7 percent Indian voters (going by 2008 figures), it is one of the very few Chinese-majority parliamentary constituencies in Johor, making it a preferred battlefield for the opposition.
Another reason for opposition to conquer Gelang Patah is Nusajaya, not for its Legoland Malaysia and Hello Kitty Theme Park, but its symbolic status.
Currently held by Umno, Nusajaya not only houses Kota Iskandar, the state government administrative centre where the new official residence of the menteri besar, state assembly building, and state government departments complex are also located, but it is also at the heart of the Iskandar Malaysia economic development region, the fastest growing zone in Johor.
It is therefore no surprise that Boo and Chua are eyeing to be the MP for Gelang Patah.
It is also one of the four 'black seats' the BN has identified in Johor, as revealed by Information, Communications and Culture Minister Rais Yaim last month. The other three are thr parliamentaryh seats of Kluang, Bakri and Batu Pahat.
Two state chiefs in war
First elected as Skudai assemblyperson in the 2008 general election after two failed attempts in 1999 and 2004, Boo, 48, is currently opposition leader in the 56-member Johor state assembly, leading five other opposition representatives - two from PAS and three from the DAP.
Operating a private clinic in the fast-growing town of Skudai, the trilingual medical doctor, who also possesses two other degrees in chemistry and law, has been serving the people of Gelang Patah for more than 10 years.
His consistent hard work over the years is widely believed to have slowly transformed Skudai into a major DAP base in Johor.
On the other hand, Chua, 69, is no stranger to Johoreans.
The lawyer-turned-politician is a five-term MP for Bakri (1986 to 2008), two-term health minister (1995 to 2004) and five-term MCA vice-president (1990 to 2005) before he joined PKR in 2009, a year after failing to clinch the party presidency, for the second time, in MCA polls.
Seat negotiations between DAP and PKR at the Johor state levelcollapsed last September, after both Chua and Boo traded criticisms in the media. The central leadership of Pakatan has since taken over the negotiations.
Gelang Patah topped the list of disputed seats between the two parties.
According to DAP, it reached a 'gentleman's agreement' with the late Johor PKR chief Abdul Razak Ahmad in 1999 to contest the seat with PKR on a rotational basis. PKR contested Gelang Patah twice in a row, in 2004 and 2008, hence DAP claim that it now the party's turn in the next general election.
But PKR claims that the seat belongs to it.
Major split in votes seen
Another valid reason for DAP wanting to contest the seat is the voting pattern in last general election.
The total votes secured by Boo in Skudai and PAS candidate Mohd Shah Lamat in Nusajaya was 32,383 - which surpassed the parliamentary votes polled by PKR candidate Dr Zaliha Mustafa in Gelang Patah by 7,604.
In other words, these 7,604 constituents voted for Boo and Shah but did not vote for Zaliha, causing her to be defeated by MCA incumbent Tan Ah Eng with a majority of 8,851 votes.
According to a Johor DAP insider, most of the split votes were in Skudai, probably due to two reasons - Zaliha is not as popular as Boo, and the Chinese constituents voted along the ethnic line.
Therefore, the insider argued, should Boo, with his popular support in Skudai, contest Gelang Patah, the chance to capture the MCA stronghold is higher Chua's chances.
However, Boo's prospects may not be that optimistic if he decides to run in both Skudai and Gelang Patah.
Usually, candidates will avoid contesting both state and parliamentary seats that overlap each other because electors may choose to split their votes to get more representatives they wish in, instead of giving both seats to a single candidate.
"But we think that there are more pros than cons for Boo to run in both seats. He can expand his influence in Skudai to Nusajaya, and help the PAS candidate contesting there as well," the insider explained.
Chua: Bakri my best battlefield
For PKR, it has no popular leader in the area.
"If we are given Gelang Patah, there will be only one candidate, and that is Chua," said a Johor PKR Youth leader.
Chua, who is from Muar, has been laying the ground in Gelang Patah with a number of activities, including the state-level PKR level Chinese New Year open house in Skudai this year.
However, Gelang Patah is not seen as a smooth ride for Chua as his decades-old rivalry with the DAP, during his time in MCA and his recent open spat with Boo, will not be easily forgotten by DAP supporters, especially in a area where Boo has been ploughing his efforts for more than 10 years.
Hence, many political observers believe that Chua is leveraging on Gelang Patah to raise his bargaining chips for the parliamentary constituency of Bakri, his previous fiefdom that was taken over by DAP in the last general election after the MCA dropped him.
Chua gave his strongest hint on this at a dinner at Muar last month, claiming that the lastest candidates list had been finalised and that he was only waiting for DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng's greenlight for PKR to contest in Bakri.
"People have been saying that when they think of Bakri, Chua Jui Meng comes to their mind. If I am given the chance to contest in Bakri, this will be the best battlefield for me," he was quoted as saying by Chinese daily Nanyang Siang Pau.
Will DAP newbie sacrifice?
Apparently, the only hurdle for Chua to make a comeback is not BN but the current Bakri MP Er Teck Hwa of the DAP, a political novice who sprang a surprise by capturing the MCA stronghold with a razor-thin majority of 722 votes in 2008, making it the sole parliamentary seat the opposition won out of 26 in Johor.
Er (left), a humble and hardworking grassroots politician, had told Malaysiakini in an interview last December that he prefers to defend Bakri in the next general election.
However, it was reported that Er softened his stand during a speech in Tangkak last month, saying he was willing to contest any seat as instructed by the party.
"The best solution is to allow both state chiefs to contest in their political bases - Chua in Bakri and Boo in Gelang Patah - to avoid widening the crack between the two parties," said Ledang PKR division leader Lau Teck Hai.
Chua's blue-eyed boy on the block
Internal friction is not exclusive to Pakatan, for Gelang Patah MCA too faces a similar problem, which is simmering behind the scene.
The two-term incumbent Tan Ah Eng, who was aligned with former MCA president Ong Ka Ting, is likely to be replaced by Gelang Patah MCA division chief Jason Teoh, the blue-eyed boy of current party president Dr Chua Soi Lek.
Tan's disatisfaction with Chua was evident in 2010 when she openlycomplained that despite her status as MCA Wanita deputy chief, Chua did not recommend her to fill in the post of women, family and community development deputy minister, which had been vacated by MCA Wanita chief Chew Mei Fun (right).
Instead, Chua's son Tee Yong, a first-term MP and political greenhorn, was recommended by Chua and appointed as deputy agriculture and agro-based industries minister.
It will be interesting to observe whether Tan's supporters in Gelang Patah, especially from the Wanita wing, will boycott, if not sabotage, Teoh during the campaign.
However, Teoh, a 43-year-old businessman with a mechanical engineering degree from Campbell University, United States, has been sweating to convince party members and voters that he is a better representative.
"We cannot depend on infighting among the opposition to defend the seat. The opposition can be very aggressive in their statements, therefore we need to win the hearts of the people through our service and personal touch.
"The voting patterns in the previous elections (split voting) showed that many voters cast their ballots based on the candidate, not on the party. So the personal touch of the candidate is crucial to win this battle," said an aide to Teoh.
First elected as Skudai assemblyperson in the 2008 general election after two failed attempts in 1999 and 2004, Boo, 48, is currently opposition leader in the 56-member Johor state assembly, leading five other opposition representatives - two from PAS and three from the DAP.
Operating a private clinic in the fast-growing town of Skudai, the trilingual medical doctor, who also possesses two other degrees in chemistry and law, has been serving the people of Gelang Patah for more than 10 years.
His consistent hard work over the years is widely believed to have slowly transformed Skudai into a major DAP base in Johor.
On the other hand, Chua, 69, is no stranger to Johoreans.
The lawyer-turned-politician is a five-term MP for Bakri (1986 to 2008), two-term health minister (1995 to 2004) and five-term MCA vice-president (1990 to 2005) before he joined PKR in 2009, a year after failing to clinch the party presidency, for the second time, in MCA polls.
Seat negotiations between DAP and PKR at the Johor state levelcollapsed last September, after both Chua and Boo traded criticisms in the media. The central leadership of Pakatan has since taken over the negotiations.
Gelang Patah topped the list of disputed seats between the two parties.
According to DAP, it reached a 'gentleman's agreement' with the late Johor PKR chief Abdul Razak Ahmad in 1999 to contest the seat with PKR on a rotational basis. PKR contested Gelang Patah twice in a row, in 2004 and 2008, hence DAP claim that it now the party's turn in the next general election.
But PKR claims that the seat belongs to it.
Major split in votes seen
Another valid reason for DAP wanting to contest the seat is the voting pattern in last general election.
The total votes secured by Boo in Skudai and PAS candidate Mohd Shah Lamat in Nusajaya was 32,383 - which surpassed the parliamentary votes polled by PKR candidate Dr Zaliha Mustafa in Gelang Patah by 7,604.
In other words, these 7,604 constituents voted for Boo and Shah but did not vote for Zaliha, causing her to be defeated by MCA incumbent Tan Ah Eng with a majority of 8,851 votes.
According to a Johor DAP insider, most of the split votes were in Skudai, probably due to two reasons - Zaliha is not as popular as Boo, and the Chinese constituents voted along the ethnic line.
Therefore, the insider argued, should Boo, with his popular support in Skudai, contest Gelang Patah, the chance to capture the MCA stronghold is higher Chua's chances.
However, Boo's prospects may not be that optimistic if he decides to run in both Skudai and Gelang Patah.
Usually, candidates will avoid contesting both state and parliamentary seats that overlap each other because electors may choose to split their votes to get more representatives they wish in, instead of giving both seats to a single candidate.
"But we think that there are more pros than cons for Boo to run in both seats. He can expand his influence in Skudai to Nusajaya, and help the PAS candidate contesting there as well," the insider explained.
Chua: Bakri my best battlefield
For PKR, it has no popular leader in the area.
"If we are given Gelang Patah, there will be only one candidate, and that is Chua," said a Johor PKR Youth leader.
Chua, who is from Muar, has been laying the ground in Gelang Patah with a number of activities, including the state-level PKR level Chinese New Year open house in Skudai this year.
However, Gelang Patah is not seen as a smooth ride for Chua as his decades-old rivalry with the DAP, during his time in MCA and his recent open spat with Boo, will not be easily forgotten by DAP supporters, especially in a area where Boo has been ploughing his efforts for more than 10 years.
Hence, many political observers believe that Chua is leveraging on Gelang Patah to raise his bargaining chips for the parliamentary constituency of Bakri, his previous fiefdom that was taken over by DAP in the last general election after the MCA dropped him.
Chua gave his strongest hint on this at a dinner at Muar last month, claiming that the lastest candidates list had been finalised and that he was only waiting for DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng's greenlight for PKR to contest in Bakri.
"People have been saying that when they think of Bakri, Chua Jui Meng comes to their mind. If I am given the chance to contest in Bakri, this will be the best battlefield for me," he was quoted as saying by Chinese daily Nanyang Siang Pau.
Will DAP newbie sacrifice?
Apparently, the only hurdle for Chua to make a comeback is not BN but the current Bakri MP Er Teck Hwa of the DAP, a political novice who sprang a surprise by capturing the MCA stronghold with a razor-thin majority of 722 votes in 2008, making it the sole parliamentary seat the opposition won out of 26 in Johor.Er (left), a humble and hardworking grassroots politician, had told Malaysiakini in an interview last December that he prefers to defend Bakri in the next general election.
However, it was reported that Er softened his stand during a speech in Tangkak last month, saying he was willing to contest any seat as instructed by the party.
"The best solution is to allow both state chiefs to contest in their political bases - Chua in Bakri and Boo in Gelang Patah - to avoid widening the crack between the two parties," said Ledang PKR division leader Lau Teck Hai.
Chua's blue-eyed boy on the block
Internal friction is not exclusive to Pakatan, for Gelang Patah MCA too faces a similar problem, which is simmering behind the scene.
The two-term incumbent Tan Ah Eng, who was aligned with former MCA president Ong Ka Ting, is likely to be replaced by Gelang Patah MCA division chief Jason Teoh, the blue-eyed boy of current party president Dr Chua Soi Lek.
Tan's disatisfaction with Chua was evident in 2010 when she openlycomplained that despite her status as MCA Wanita deputy chief, Chua did not recommend her to fill in the post of women, family and community development deputy minister, which had been vacated by MCA Wanita chief Chew Mei Fun (right).Instead, Chua's son Tee Yong, a first-term MP and political greenhorn, was recommended by Chua and appointed as deputy agriculture and agro-based industries minister.
It will be interesting to observe whether Tan's supporters in Gelang Patah, especially from the Wanita wing, will boycott, if not sabotage, Teoh during the campaign.
However, Teoh, a 43-year-old businessman with a mechanical engineering degree from Campbell University, United States, has been sweating to convince party members and voters that he is a better representative.
"We cannot depend on infighting among the opposition to defend the seat. The opposition can be very aggressive in their statements, therefore we need to win the hearts of the people through our service and personal touch.
"The voting patterns in the previous elections (split voting) showed that many voters cast their ballots based on the candidate, not on the party. So the personal touch of the candidate is crucial to win this battle," said an aide to Teoh.
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