Hung Parliament: Najib's self-fulfilling prophecy?

There’s more to it than meets the eye in Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak’s outburst earlier this week when he expressed fears that a hung Parliament situation - the norm in India, Britain and elsewhere - might result from the country’s 13th General Election results.

“That would be the worst possible outcome,” he cried after an address to the newly inaugurated Foreign Correspondents Club of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur.

Najib’s statement, taken at face value, might appear to indicate that the lesser of two evils would be voters deciding firmly between either the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) or the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) by giving at least a simple majority to the victorious party.

It’s unlikely that Najib is thinking all of a sudden so magnanimously along these lines after warning Malaysians only last weekend in Beruas against “forsaking the future” by backing the opposition alliance.

First possibility

So, the more accurate reading of Najib’s statement might indicate either of two distinct possibilities.

The first possibility is the obvious fact that a hung Parliament situation in fact emerged in Peninsular Malaysia at the 12th General Election on March 8, 2008. The Pakatan Rakyat coalition led by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim won 80 parliamentary seats with 51 per cent of the votes considered, while BN collected a modest 85 seats.

It took another 55 seats from Sabah (24), Sarawak (30) and Labuan (1) for the ruling party to get a comfortable 140 seats in Parliament. It takes 112 seats to get a simple majority of two seats in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat, the lower house of Parliament. Pakatan took a seat each in Sabah and Sarawak to bring its final tally in Parliament to 82.

How the above nightmare scenario emerged for BN is really beside the point now and in any case is water under the bridge. When Mohamad didn’t go to the Mountain, the Mountain moved and came to him. Having once moved, it’s not that easy for the Mountain to move right back to where it was before 2008.

The pertinent point is that Najib doesn’t want the 13th GE in Peninsular Malaysia to be a repeat of the 12th GE. Heaven forbid if the tables are reversed and PR eclipses BN 83 : 82 in the finally tally in Peninsular Malaysia.

Yet, it could happen all too easily given that the BN is unlikely to better or repeat its performance the last time in Johore (25 : 1) and Terengganu (7 : 1). There are also grey areas for BN in Perak and Negri Sembilan which would force it to be even more dependent than before on Sabah and Sarawak, BN's 'Fixed Deposit' states.

BN won't improve on its 2008 results in the peninsula, may suffer heavy losses in East M'sia

Keeping on the safe side, come the 13th GE, BN will never better its performance in 2008 when it conceded only a seat each in Sabah and Sarawak.

The next time around, 10 parliamentary seats – 6 in Sarawak and 4 in Sabah – would be in Pakatan’s bag through the DAP. These are all Chinese seats. Kudat, Tawau, Sandakan and Kota Kinabalu are in Sabah and were allotted to BN component parties outside Umno. Except for Kudat, the other three are in opposition hands.

In Sarawak, we have Kuching, Sibu, Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang and Miri, all in great danger of being lost by the divided Sarawak United People’s Party (Supp). Dap has already taken Kuching and Sibu. The Chinese in the state, as in Sabah, are sore like the others that the King Maker role of Malaysian Borneo has been little appreciated by the BN in the wake of 2008.

In addition, there’s a distinct possibility of the opposition taking four grey Sarawak seats viz Mas Gading, Seratok, Baram and Bintulu, all Dayak seats held by the troubled Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP).

The story in Sabah is by no means over since not all the remaining 8 seats allotted to the BN component parties outside Umno are winnable. Pensiangan, won uncontested by Deputy Federal Minister Joseph Kurup after a disputed Court victory, is already expected to fall to the opposition. The seat was allotted to the Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS).

Second Possibility

The great expectation in the BN camp is that the opposition will never be able to take on the ruling party in Sabah one-to-one.

Strong disagreements have been noted between Pakatan on the one hand, and two other parties viz. the State Reform Party (Star) and the Sabah Progressive Party (Sapp) on the other. Kita meanwhile wants to contest in all seats, Parliament and state, in Sabah. The Sabah People’s Front (SPF), rumoured to be linked to Umno veteran Lajim Ukin, might also enter the fray and if so, that would be good news for the opposition.

This is where the second, and greater possibility, comes in and is likely to materialize.

In both Sabah and Sarawak, Pakatan can only eat into BN’s 2008 support level by first dividing the seats among its three component parties i.e. PKR, DAP and PAS. This is the easy part for these Peninsular Malaysia-based national parties.

The next stage would come when each Pakatan component party negotiates and haggles with one, or even two, local opposition parties including the locally-incorporated Kita to put up a united front to face the BN one-to-one in Sabah and Sarawak.

On paper, if this scenario, appearing increasingly promising and tantalizing, materializes, BN would be in real trouble in its two Fixed Deposit states. Already, BN is on the defensive in Sabah and Sarawak. By the time that the 13th GE is held, the coalition may have its back to the wall, if not having been cornered or painted itself into a corner.

Sad to say, the reality is that Star, Sapp, Kita and SPF may not win enough seats or even any seat to be regarded as a formidable or credible Third Force. Nonetheless, opposition disunity in Sabah and Sarawak, as seen during the state elections in the latter state last year and in 2008 in the former, will only play into BN’s hands and hand it victory by default. And this is what Najib has plotted for, so the Pakatan needs to watch out.

3 blocs in Parliament not impossible

Under the 2nd possibility, there would be three distinct blocs in Parliament i.e. BN, Pakatan and another faceless group from Sabah and Sarawak which for want of a better term might call itself the 3rd Force. The 3rd Force, Najib’s worst nightmare, would create the hung Parliament situation that he so much fears.

However, it wouldn’t be much of a hung Parliament situation if the 3rd Force comes into being with the active co-operation of PR. The opposition alliance’s thinking in that case would be very simple: “where we can’t take away seats from the BN in Sabah and Sarawak, we will help someone else, a local party, to do so”.

If all these are not enough to give Najib sleepless nights, there’s one remaining possibility which both BN and PR may be contemplating at the back of their minds. The Indian community doesn’t have even one state or parliamentary seat in Peninsular Malaysia. But at the parliamentary level, the community decides in 67 parliamentary seats.

These seats which fell in equal measure to PR and BN would be another battleground between the two coalitions.

BN’s predictable stand, in the distinct possibility of a hung Parliament, would be to tell the King that Pakatan is not a registered political coalition and must be looked at separately. Hence, and this is where Najib’s worst possible outcome theory comes in, none of them can claim to be able to form and lead the Federal Government.

Umno hopes that the resulting “stand-off”, with shades of Perak 2009 in mind, would buy it enough time to woo the vulnerable from the 3rd Force, if not from the Pakatan, “with the promise of a better deal for Sabah and Sarawak”.

However, the newly-formed Amanah group within Umno and founded by Tengku Razaleigh Hamah might also wish to position itself better once the horse-trading begins and that may not be too good at all for Najib, if not others in his party and coalition.

Patently, the future of politics in Malaysia is up for grabs!

Malaysia Chronicle