Voters may opt for political status quo

Fence-sitters, a crucial block, are not happy with the performance of BN and Pakatan, says an academician.

GEORGE TOWN: Voters are likely to maintain the political status quo, despite a change of guards in several states, in the next general election, forecasts an academician.

Political observer Sivamurugan Pandian said Barisan Nasional (BN) may continue to helm the government after the country’s much-awaited 13th general election.

But he said BN would be denied a parliamentary two-thirds majority for the second successive term and perhaps Pakatan Rakyat would even increase its parliamentary tally.

His main reason is that neutrals or fence-sitters were generally unsatisfied with the performance of both BN and Pakatan.

As much as they desire change, he said these neutrals would also punish non-performance and non-delivery of the incumbent elected representatives and state governments.

“Their votes – crucial and decisive – can go either way.

“There would be some shocking losses and upset victories for both sides,” Sivamurugan, the deputy dean of the school of social sciences in Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), told FMT here today.

Fence-sitters are estimated to constitute some 30% to 40% of the electorate.

Sivamurugan said fence-sitters were disappointed with both political blocks for failing to live up to people’s expectations and aspirations for the past four years.

Cosmetic changes

In aftermath of the 2008 polls, he said the neutrals expected both BN and Pakatan to show different style of governance, especially in implementing policies for political transformation and reforms.

“But both failed to do it, except for some cosmetic changes,” Sivamurugan said.

He warned that the fence-sitters, who were predominantly fresh, cyber-savvy and critical young voters, would vote eccentrically and turn conventional electoral predictions upside down.

He said these voters do not have any favourite party or candidate, adding that they would instantly reject candidates with baggage.

He said the voters would critically gauge the performance of the incumbents, scrutinise newcomers and judge each government’s fulfilled and unfulfilled last election’s promises and manifestos.

This, he said, could result in some state governments changing guards, shock defeats for some political top guns and upset wins for novices.

“Selection of winnable candidates will be vital for both coalitions.

“Delivery and performance of the federal and state governments will be crucial,” he said.

Internal bickering

Sivamurugan noted that BN chairman and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak was trying hard to convince the people that his government can give different governance.

But he said to the neutrals, Umno, presided by Najib, did not undergo any transformation and has failed to learn the harsh lessons of 2008.

“To many, Umno, and to a certain extent BN, is still the same,” he said.

Similarly, he said Pakatan has also toned down on its transformation and reform agenda in the states it ruled after much hype on it initially.

He said Pakatan state governments have not implemented any impressive policy changes to mark a departure from the previous BN-style of governance.

“It looks like business as usual, with no distinction between both [sides],” Sivamurugan said.

He added that internal bickering and power tussle in BN and Pakatan would be a telling factor because they could lead to sabotage of the election machinery and campaign.

Unlike 2008, where the ground sentiments were very much anti-BN, this time he expects voters’ backlash against “parachutists” due to local sentiments.

He said both political blocks now have the money, machinery and media strength to neutralise each other.

On the media front, he said Pakatan has been way ahead of BN in cyber media that could capture the imagination of urbanites.

On the other hand, he said BN strength was in the print and electronic media, giving it a decisive advantage with rural votes.

He urged both political blocks to drop non-performing incumbents, especially the old guards, and throw young and eager political aspirants into the fray.

“Those who have lost the political zest should go voluntarily. They should not wait for others to tell them to do so,” Sivamurugan said.