Dr M won't be able to save himself, what more you Najib: GE-13 in COLD STORAGE!

How can it be? How can UMNO with three million members, five decades in power, a mile-long string of successes as claimed by their leaders, still be so unsure of when it is safe to hold the country's 13th general election?

No doubt, the party grassroots and warlords will point the finger back at Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is also the UMNO president. Some leaders will even defend him. It's up to him, he's boss, it is his prerogative. Yet the more critical ones will slam him - it's his fault, he is to blame for having no confidence in himself and the people to return the UMNO-BN back to power for another 5 year mandate.

But whether they take Najib's side or go against him, a late GE-13 does no one nor the nation any good. The global economy is sinking and Asian stock markets are crashing. Adding political uncertainty to an already scary cocktail is not going to help. Worst still, for Malaysians to continue supporting a weak leadership unable to reform because of internal bickering within the ruling party itself, i.e. UMNO, is certain suicide.

Never before has any PM been so afraid of calling for an election

So, why is Najib is so apprehensive about GE-13. If the UMNO pundits are right, BN will still scratch together a small victory. It may not be as glamorous or flashy as Najib would like but a win is still a win. With his back to the wall, Najib should be thankful to get through with a pass rather than aim for flying colours such as winning two-thirds of the 222 seats in Parliament.

Indeed, UMNO's own internal polls show that Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Rakyat is likely to win 107 to 109 seats, which may trigger a hung Parliament and thence a mass exodus into the Pakatan, sealing the nation's first regime change ever since obtaining independence from British rule in 1957.

"UMNO must not take it for granted that money can buy everything. There are many BN leaders waiting to cross over but in politics, timing is everything. They won't do it until they get a clear signal from their people," PKR MP for Batu Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.

Indeed, even in the 12th general election held in 2008, Pakatan won more than half the popular vote but lost in terms of the number of seats due to gerrymandering of electoral boundaries by the past BN governments led by Mahathir Mohamad.

Now that nearly 5 years have passed, and Pakatan has been able to show it can do the job of a good government as proven by the state administrations of Selangor and Penang, popular demand is expected to rest on the side of a regime change instead of being cautious and sticking with the status quo.

BN has run out of 'good times': Stop dreaming, Najib

GE-13 strongly touted to be in June this year, then shifted to July and later to September is again 'blowing in the wind'. No one except the most gung-ho still imagine going to the ballot boxes in July. Najib himself put paid to speculation that GE-13 would be in September when he announced that the Budget 2013 would be brought forward and held on September 28.

Speculation is now rife Najib may try to gain 'extra advantage' by holding GE-13 during the pilgrimage or haj season in October but that will backfire and anger Muslim voters as his predecessor Abdullah Badawi has warned with a pre-emptive salvo - albeit directed against the opposition rather than at Najib himself.

"Don't tell me the prime minister wants to hold the election then. He is also a Muslim," Abdullah told reporters over the weekend.

Yes, Abdullah's warning - indirect as it was - is crystal clear. Najib, whose approval rating plunged to 65% from 69% after ordering ill-judged police attacks against the Bersih 3.0 rally goers during their April 28 sit-in for free and fair elections, does appear 'lost' and in need of 'guidance' from his predecessors.

Najib is biting his nails, hoping for a period when the situation is good enough to hold the GE-13. But it looks like he may only be dreaming because that won’t happen, at least from now until March 2013 when the BN's mandate expires and Parliament will have to be automatically dissolved.

“The real issue is to clean up the electoral roll but Umno does not want to do it. Najib is looking for opportunities as to how to ensure his victory, which includes calling for election during the haj season. Najib knows that PAS supporters, many of them, would be away on the haj during that time,” PAS president and Marang MP Hadi Awang said over the weekend.

Propped up by Dr M: Infighting brings the party down

Nothing that Najib has done thus far has really worked; from economic policies to social programs - it has all gone terribly wrong. Almost everything has gone wrong and he is now clinging to power with the help of former premier Mahathir Mohamad.

At 86, Mahathir is now indisputably the most powerful 'warlord' or 'power-broker' in their party - able to influence who gets to become the next UMNO president at internal polls slated for later this year.

According to BN critics, the people of Malaysia could actually live in peace in harmony much better without the interference or input of UMNO. Or to be more precise, to forever draw the curtains on its brand of abrasive politicking that champions the vested interest of its ruling elite first and foremost at the expense of the ordinary people.

"UMNO is bad for the country as has been proven by the endemic corruption and plunder of wealth that the UMNO leaders are fighting hard to keep secret from the masses. When one power broker has the upper hand, he will rule according to his whim and fancy as Malaysia belongs to him and his family," said an academic teaching political science at a local university. He asked not to be named.

"UMNO will also be bad for Malaysia when there is no warlord powerful enough to control the party, thereby exposing the country to haphazard policies and meddling as the factions within UMNO jostle for space and authority within their own party."

Selfishness and the talent vacuum in Umno

How did this come about? Selfishness may well be the answer, according to pundits.

They said the selfishness of top leaders such as Mahathir and Najib in keeping out talented newcomers has led to a situation where despite its claims of a 3 million membership, UMNO is basically a closed-door 'old-boys' club.

Indeed, UMNO is about a core group of leaders who struck the political limelight during the 1960s and 70s and are now clinging on. They do appear to be trying their best to pass off their 'inheritance', i.e. their power and authority in the party, to their own kids and family.

But times have changed and UMNO insiders themselves admit Najib has mismanaged the party and Malaysia so badly that his failures can no longer be tolerated or hidden. He has failed to understand that the simmering troubles in UMNO have ballooned and reached a stage whereby no one person manage these single-handedly - not even Mahathir.

That's right Mahathir won't be able to save Najib. UMNO has had enough of Mahathir and for many of the large factions, the situation has reached a stage where it is 'either us or them' - with 'them' referring to Najib and Mahathir. The party is polarized - those siding Mahathir and indirectly Najib and those who blame the duo for plunging UMNO to its current abyss.

So, while Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Rakyat remain an ever looming danger, Najib and Mahathir may get their just deserts from 'internal sources' instead of from external foes.

Situation in UMNO irreversible

Even so, Najib is still adamant and continues to stick to his agenda - emboldened by Mahathir 's support. Najib continues to ignore what is going on in UMNO and tries to focus on GE-13. Despite the strong warning from the Bersih 3.0 rally, he stubbornly carries on with the much-criticized use of the government machinery to win votes, distributing election goodies such as granting cash handouts to the people to blatant vote-buying and vote-rigging.

BUT the people of Malaysia have changed with the times and Najib may not succeed despite all his attempts to secure a win by hook or by crook at GE-13. He can rig the results but will the people accept an outcome if it is obviously against their wishes and obtained by cheating.

Looking at the hundreds of thousands of Malaysians who came to support Bersih's call for clean polls, Najib and Mahathir would do better to forget about their 'bright' idea of trying to steal the people's mandate by devious means.

Mahathir too appears to have run out of fresh ideas on how to improve things in UMNO except to blame Badawi for all the party's problems. Mahathir is not able to make UMNO strong and united. Deep in his heart, Mahathir knows that he is the one who has failed both UMNO and Malaysia. He even admitted it on several occasions. Sad to say, it is too late and the situation in UMNO is not reversible.

Implosion mode

Najib's list of 'winnable candidates' for GE-13 has still not been finalized. The BN grapevine has it that each seat has at least two 'winnable' individuals and Najib - indecisive as ever - does not dare to make a final decision yet for fear of losing support from his own side.

But no one in the list is willing to sacrifice for UMNO or BN. Like it or not, Najib will have to be the 'bad guy' and make a decision. For example, who can fill the shoes of the Selangor Menteri Besar if UMNO really manages to regain this prized trophy?

There is also no certainty that UMNO-BN can win back the five states despite its mudslinging and onslaught against the Pakatan leaders. Instead, it is Pakatan which is very likely to make further inroads and may even win Terengganu, Perlis, Negeri Sembilan and Perak.

Najib's deputy Muhyiddin Yassin has also started to worry because the impending disaster for UMNO-BN is so clear for all to see except for Najib and his core group of advisers, who frankly have bungled on every major issue. Several prominent ex-civil servants and personalities have also joined the Pakatan. One can be sure that Pakatan will soon reveal the 'dark secrets' of the UMNO-BN leaders as they fight tooth and nail for the federal government.

Mahathir's son Mukhriz has been openly rejected by Kedah UMNO as the next Menteri Besar. What a slap in the face and a real warning for his dad, who behaves like the country's de-facto prime minister, and for Najib who had hoped to secure Mahathir's favor by giving Mukhriz the Kedah state government. Provided of course, UMNO can wrest it back from the Pakatan in the first place.

Other signs of big trouble brewing include several top UMNO leaders announcing they will contest in seats other than in their traditional stronghold areas. What message are they sending Najib?

UMNO is also troubled by the scandals involving their topmost leaders. No, the Malaysian Anti Corruption Commission's declaring Wanita UMNO chief Shahrizat Jalil 'innocent' won't give her back her lost credibility. The RM250million NFC corruption scandal still sticks out like a sore thumb and it is a certainty women members will show their displeasure over Najib's double standards in this matter. For reasons best known to himself, Najib has insisted on standing by Shahrizat over the debacle involving her family.

It does look like UMNO is a gone case and with the rest of the BN component parties also in disarray, pundits say Malaysians should wise up. There may be much more stability in a regime change than in sticking with a status quo that has already moved into IMPLOSION MODE!

Malaysia Chronicle 

How can it be? How can UMNO with three million members, five decades in power, achieving so many successes as claimed by all UMNO leaders, members and supporters and yet Najib is so unsure?

Najib himself declared on live television that his transformation programs are successful and have already benefited the country. Everywhere that Najib, Muhyiddin, Mahathir, Rais and other ministers went they have all told the people of the achievements and successes. UMNO has already told the people that under UMNO/BN, Malaysia has the best in everything, best education, best democracy, best, best and best.

Further to that UMNO/BN has also got the support from so many groups, NGOs and important people in the country. UMNO has NGOs like PERKASA, PEKIDA, Jati, silat organisations, HALAU and even Restoran Sekinchan Ikan Bakar are all behind the best and beloved political party in Malaysia; UMNO. UMNO also have those doing butt exercises in their favour. Don’t forget the hawkers and petty traders who set up business in front of Ambiga’s house and not to mention the UMNO cyber troopers led by Rocky Bru!

The PDRM, EC, MACC, AG and the courts are all in UMNO’s are all under UMNO’s favour if not under its jurisdiction. Some say that PDRM is the armed wing of UMNO and the EC is the component party of BN. Even the Muftis of Wilayah Persekutuan Kuala Lumpur and the state of Perak have supportive of UMNO/BN. The KL mufti issued a “fatwa” (edict) that any demonstration against the ruling government is unconditionally “haram” (forbidden). UMNO has Azam Mohd Nor, Zulkifli Nordin, Umi Hafilda, Hassan Ali, Ibrahim Ali, Nallakaruppan, Afdlin Shauki, M.Daud Kilau and many other personalities.

Najib has also made the promise of “you scratch my back and I scratch yours”. Najib has been portraying himself as being so caring for the people by the various handouts and the PTPTN.

UMNO also boasted that 200,000 gathered in the Bukit Jalil National Stadium that Najib candidly mentioned that he would seek the consent from the Agong to dissolve parliament on the next day of the 66^thUMNO birthday gathering. The recent Gathering of One Million Youth was so successful that the mainstream media mentioned not one, but two million attended the five-day event. Compare that to the recent BERSIH 3.0 event had only 22,711 participants Rais Yatim said and that is based on the technic used by the BBC! Well Najib should be able to announce it any time now!

UMNO also have stone and egg throwers supporting them and not to mention diehard supporters who are willing to shed blood for UMNO, but of course not their own blood; the blood of others as the ones spilled in the recent Anwar’s PKR ceramah in Lembah Pantai.

On 29^thMay the NST reported, “GROSS NATIONAL INCOME BOOST: RM20b investments in 21 new projects, including Sepang International City and Kulim Hi-Tech Park creating 40,000 more jobs” and that should be good news and improve UMNO/BN tremendously!

But, why then Najib is so apprehensive in officially announcing the date of the GE-13? What have gone wrong?

The only conclusion on can make is that there are so many things that have gone terribly wrong in UMNO, BN, BN component parties and the country as a whole. Nothing that Najib has done thus far has really worked; it has all gone terribly wrong. Almost everything has gone wrong in Bolehland.

Najib is biting his nails, just hoping that there is a period when the situation is good enough to hold the GE-13. Najib is only dreaming because that won’t happen, at least from now until March 2013.