Political miscalculations of PAS-Umno saga

The writings on the wall indicate the PAS is probably making a move that will be costly to the Pakatan.

COMMENT

By Ali Cordoba

After the 1999 general election, some pro-Umno newspapers hailed a possible Umno-PAS merger, calling it the “union” of the future for the Malay-majority community in the country.

PAS has since then been on the threshold of a “real” possibility of re-joining the Barisan National. But at what cost will it take that plunge into Umno’s arms?

Before 1999 – the reformasi era – PAS was weak with only Kelantan remaining strong in its hands. But that, as we know it, was always an affair of the Kelantan PAS and not a result of any greatness in PAS’ national leadership.

The Kelantan PAS under Nik Aziz Nik Mat has remained until today the only one that has not been defeated by the Umno-BN machinery. It is the only state that slipped from the hands of Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Umno has never managed to wrest it back.

On the national level, PAS has been boosted by its alliance with the reform movement launched by Anwar Ibrahim before his ISA arrest. It is known that the early leaders of the reform movement – many of whom have since returned to Umno – were setting up committees with the help of PAS to free Anwar from jail.

PAS – at the national level – was hoping that these “reformasi” elements would join the party in droves and would leave Umno bare. Many did leave but their move to PAS was hijacked by the creation of the Justice Party, better known as Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), in the aftermath of Anwar’s beating and his infamous black eye.

It could be said that without PKR and Anwar’s trials and the calls for reform by the pro-Anwar elements in the country, PAS would have remained a “Kelantan champion” and the party would have had little impact nationally.

Those who joined the “tsunami” of the reform movement did so because they saw an opportunity to make personal gains. The 2008 political tsunami swept the country in five states.

Among these cunning politicians who joined the reformasi movement, many have since been ejected from the movement, or were worn out by the lengthy fight for power or were attracted by the greed of easy comfort elsewhere.

And PAS is bound to join them in this category if it were to jump ship at the last minute.

The writings on the wall indicate that PAS is probably making a move that will be costly to Pakatan.

PAS-DAP issue

However, due to the nature of today’s politics and the slippery political landscape in Malaysia, a PAS move towards Umno may not yield the expected result.

A PAS-Umno alliance on the eve of the 13th general election may end up being an empty shell.

The attacks by Shanon Ahmad and deputy mursyidul am of PAS, Harun Din, against the DAP and Anwar recently are signs of a crack within the PAS leadership. It also shows the impatience that has ruined the peace within PAS.

It’s clear that many among the PAS leadership do not approve of PAS working together with the DAP. But this opposition is probably based on the possibility that if this issue is exploited, then PAS would join Umno in the end.

Harun’s statement that Anwar has his own ways of doing politics and that he is not as “Islamic” as the PAS leaders is is offensive to many Muslims.

It is also a statement that shows there is a basis for a “mini-revolt” within the PAS and that may take shape soon.

If these statements are reinforced by actions of the anti-DAP leaders of PAS, it could lead to a few very uncomfortable moments for Anwar and the Pakatan coalition. It may also be at a very, very high cost to PAS.

A break-up of PAS from the Pakatan pact is a potential threat. The belief that it is “haram” for PAS to deal with DAP, Anwar’s “un-Islamic ways” and the hudud issue, may lead to the break, according to Harun.

The situation may get worst with unnecessary public statements by DAP or PKR leaders and more such irresponsible statements by PAS leaders.

In the event of such a debacle, PAS risks being divided into two.

There are members of PAS who would never want to pinch their nose to swallow the oil called Umno. They may jump ship and remain within Pakatan under PKR or a new formation if, for example, Nik Aziz was to be silenced or removed by the newly revived pro-Umno leadership.

In this case, PAS will be weaker still if it joins Umno to form a new government of “Muslim” unity.

Umno ‘sleepers’ inside PAS

A weaker PAS in the BN will mean nothing much has changed for the ruling coalition as Umno will remain as the “only” party that will dictate the path for the BN in the upcoming polls.

And that will simply mean that PAS will then be seen as one of the greedy political organisations that jumped on the “reformasi” bandwagon only to abandon it when it thought the grass was greener elsewhere.

It is the wave of “reformasi” that gave PAS a victory in Terengganu in 1999 as it is the same pro-Anwar waves that gave PAS a larger share of MPs in Parliament in 2008. The same PAS that was flattened – along with the PKR – in 2004 was given a boost with 20 seats it controls in the current parliamentary session.

What has kept the BN in power for 55 years is not only due to the weakness of the opposition parties in Malaysia since the nation’s independence, but is also due to the great political machinations by the BN, with its infiltration of political parties and the major crackdowns on its political opponents during its tenure in power.

It is thus certain that many inside PAS are from the pro-Umno clique. Time and again, when Umno feels it is necessary, these sleepers within the PAS would leave the party at election time or urge the party to join Umno in a sort of a “holy” Muslim alliance.

Alternatively, they will wreak havoc within the party as has been seen since the dawn of Pakatan’s rise in 2008.

The final option for PAS will be to remain an opposition force outside Pakatan, thus hoping to hurt the chances of Pakatan by causing three-way fights in Peninsular Malaysia.

In this scenario there is the risk that PAS will be flattened as it was in 2004 and PKR will probably lose seats too as in 2004, thus ensuring a victory for Umno.

But is PAS that dumb that it will create such havoc after enjoying “glory” with Pakatan?

The greed for greener grass may simply drag PAS into the arms of Umno once again and it may give the BN a slight margin gf victory in the end or it might also turn out to be the very reason for a massive Pakatan victory in the next general election.

The political landscape in Malaysia remains murky and shadowed by the possibility of political suicides by some emotional elements within the opposition.

It remains a slippery platform for many but one thing is for sure: the rakyat seem to have made their choices in advance and only after the election is held will Malaysia know what will happen next.

Ali Cordoba writes extensively on local politics.