GE WATCH SABAH Although acceptance of former Umno man Lajim Ukin into the Pakatan Rakyat fold in Sabah is likely to contribute to the Beaufort parliamentary seat, things are more tenuous for former Upko man Wilfred Bumburing in Tuaran.
Located an easy 40-minute drive from downtown Kota Kinabalu, theTuaran parliamentary constituency has three state seats under it - Tamparuli and Kiulu, which have a Kadazandusun Murut majority, and Sulaman, where most are Muslim Bumiputera, like the Bajau.
Early troubles appeared soon before nomination day when Tuaran PKR chief Ansari Abdullah announced (left) himself as Tuaran PKR MP candidate, only to be sidelined for Bumburing who allied himself along with his NGO APS.
Cracks widened when Tuaran PKR, a 12-year-old division which has deep roots in the area and had made inroads among the Bajau community there, declared support for Independent candidates - Ansari's daughter Erveana for Tuaran and Ali Akhbar Ali for Kiulu - who are using the hibiscus logo.
Splintering within a party can affect a campaign on several fronts, like machinery boycott and splitting of votes, but in this case, the team referred to by locals as "hibiscus candidates" and by the local branch as "PKR ori (original PKR)" are unlikely to achieve either.
"I only know who these people are after nomination, but Ansari people recognise," local resident Mohd Lain Nasir, who votes in Sulaman, told Malaysiakini.
The hibiscus campaign also appears more muted, compared to the centrally backed PKR candidates who have Bumburing's loyal supporters on the ground.
Bajau ties
But it is the ties forged over the last decade between Ansari plus the local PKR division and the Bajau community which Bumburing lacks in his campaign, which could spell his downfall.
Sulaman, where most of the Bajau reside is the state seat with the most voters at 19,616 and is the stronghold of incumbent and popular Umno warlord Hajiji Noor, who trounced Ansari with a majority of than 60 percent.
Voting trends from 2004 to 2008 indicate that Ansari is unlikely to win over Hajiji. His votes were constant at about 3,500 in both polls, while Hajij's vote bank grew by about 2000.
However, Ansari has greater influence compared than PKR's 2013 Sulaman candidate Gulabdin Enjih, who despite help from central leaders like de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim, could not draw in significant crowds to his events.
Will he make enough of a dent to help Bumburing retain his seat?
"Hajiji is strong and will win Sulaman, but what we need to win Tuaran is 25 to 30 percent of the Bajau votes, in order to win Tuaran," an APS man who is managing the campaign in Tamaparuli said.
The APS-PKR campaign team - or PKR celup (fake PKR) to the local branch--are mostly made up of Bumburing's loyal supporters. They claim that of 10 homes they visit in the Tamparuli and Kiulu area, eight say they will back the PKR candidates.
In yellow caps and T-shirts bearing the PKR logo, the campaigners distribute a 48-page booklet which labels Bumburing (left) "Bapa Perubahan Sabah" and details Bumburing's position on Sabah's future.
"Some people we visit actually campaign to us, telling us about how they're unhappy with the illegal immigration issue etc, that we have to sit there and listen," Biah, who is leading the backbone of the campaign team, a group of betel leaf-chewing middle-aged women, said.
When told that Bumburing is lucky to have such passionate supporters, she said: "No, we are lucky because we have a leader like him, who is willing to go from heaven to hell to right a wrong."
A good man jumping into the sea
An incumbent MP, Bumburing appears popular among the Kadazandusun Murut community who are his support base. He even has Star, which is contesting two state seats there, campaigning for him for the Tuaran parliament seats.
He also appears popular than his predecessor Wildred Madius Tangau who is running against him in this polls.
Located an easy 40-minute drive from downtown Kota Kinabalu, theTuaran parliamentary constituency has three state seats under it - Tamparuli and Kiulu, which have a Kadazandusun Murut majority, and Sulaman, where most are Muslim Bumiputera, like the Bajau.
Early troubles appeared soon before nomination day when Tuaran PKR chief Ansari Abdullah announced (left) himself as Tuaran PKR MP candidate, only to be sidelined for Bumburing who allied himself along with his NGO APS.Cracks widened when Tuaran PKR, a 12-year-old division which has deep roots in the area and had made inroads among the Bajau community there, declared support for Independent candidates - Ansari's daughter Erveana for Tuaran and Ali Akhbar Ali for Kiulu - who are using the hibiscus logo.
Splintering within a party can affect a campaign on several fronts, like machinery boycott and splitting of votes, but in this case, the team referred to by locals as "hibiscus candidates" and by the local branch as "PKR ori (original PKR)" are unlikely to achieve either.
"I only know who these people are after nomination, but Ansari people recognise," local resident Mohd Lain Nasir, who votes in Sulaman, told Malaysiakini.
The hibiscus campaign also appears more muted, compared to the centrally backed PKR candidates who have Bumburing's loyal supporters on the ground.
Bajau ties
But it is the ties forged over the last decade between Ansari plus the local PKR division and the Bajau community which Bumburing lacks in his campaign, which could spell his downfall.
Sulaman, where most of the Bajau reside is the state seat with the most voters at 19,616 and is the stronghold of incumbent and popular Umno warlord Hajiji Noor, who trounced Ansari with a majority of than 60 percent.
Voting trends from 2004 to 2008 indicate that Ansari is unlikely to win over Hajiji. His votes were constant at about 3,500 in both polls, while Hajij's vote bank grew by about 2000.However, Ansari has greater influence compared than PKR's 2013 Sulaman candidate Gulabdin Enjih, who despite help from central leaders like de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim, could not draw in significant crowds to his events.
Will he make enough of a dent to help Bumburing retain his seat?
"Hajiji is strong and will win Sulaman, but what we need to win Tuaran is 25 to 30 percent of the Bajau votes, in order to win Tuaran," an APS man who is managing the campaign in Tamaparuli said.
The APS-PKR campaign team - or PKR celup (fake PKR) to the local branch--are mostly made up of Bumburing's loyal supporters. They claim that of 10 homes they visit in the Tamparuli and Kiulu area, eight say they will back the PKR candidates.
In yellow caps and T-shirts bearing the PKR logo, the campaigners distribute a 48-page booklet which labels Bumburing (left) "Bapa Perubahan Sabah" and details Bumburing's position on Sabah's future."Some people we visit actually campaign to us, telling us about how they're unhappy with the illegal immigration issue etc, that we have to sit there and listen," Biah, who is leading the backbone of the campaign team, a group of betel leaf-chewing middle-aged women, said.
When told that Bumburing is lucky to have such passionate supporters, she said: "No, we are lucky because we have a leader like him, who is willing to go from heaven to hell to right a wrong."
A good man jumping into the sea
An incumbent MP, Bumburing appears popular among the Kadazandusun Murut community who are his support base. He even has Star, which is contesting two state seats there, campaigning for him for the Tuaran parliament seats.
He also appears popular than his predecessor Wildred Madius Tangau who is running against him in this polls.
Some locals met said Tangau was a poor representative for them while others cite incidents where he had rubbed people the wrong way for being haughty.
Tangau contested and won for BN in 2004.
Albert Simbun Maijun, who manages the central BN operations room for the area, however dismisses suggestions of Tangau's lack of popularity by saying: "He only had one term."
In contrast, he has more kinds words for Bumburing, admitting that he has "contributed much to the community" (banyak berjasa) and is a "good man".
Locals told MalaysiakiniBumburing channeled funds fairly between the state constituencies, while Tangau was less even-handed.
"I was a Bumburing supporter, too, but in the end, we can't follow him if he chooses to jump into the sea. The BN has a clear direction, while Bumburing's fate is uncertain," Albert, a soft-spoken man said.
Compared to its counterpart, the BN campaign team in Tamparuli and Kiulu appears to lack fire in their bellies.
Ceramahs are less popular in Sabah, but the PKR team are still organising small ones to get the word out. Unike their Umno friends in Sulaman who have roped in scandalous speaker Umi Hafilda Ali, BN, in the Kadazandusun Murut areas, have no rallies in store.
APS helps PKR make inroads in interiors
And although they are better equipped--the PKR lot operate on the porch of a sundry shop cum local karate association while BN's centre has three airconditioned offices - a visit to the offices found dispassionate young men surfing Facebook.
BN in Kiulu and Tamparuli also appear to lack a solid Kadazandusun Murut leader, with Hajiji being the one officiating the operation rooms instead.
With PKR's team in Sulaman being the weakest link, it is Hajiji, whose wife is Dusun, and his clout that could undermine Bumburing's chances there.
Losing Tuaran - which is still 50-50 - however, may not mean that the APS tie-up is coming up to nought as the inclusion of the NGO into the Pakatan fold has lent the a more organised structure to the fractious Sabah PKR especially in the northern part of the west coast.
In Matunggong, an almost three-hour drive through windy roads north of Kota Kinabalu, 1500-odd people attended a PKR rally and said they will support APS deputy president Maijol Mahap, contesting under PKR against incumbent and PBS deputy president Maximus Ongkili (left).
Pakatan Rakyat may not have been able to make these are inroads in the more interior Kadazandusun Murut areas without APS support making the Tuaran gamble a calculated one which may pay dividends elsewhere.
Albert Simbun Maijun, who manages the central BN operations room for the area, however dismisses suggestions of Tangau's lack of popularity by saying: "He only had one term."In contrast, he has more kinds words for Bumburing, admitting that he has "contributed much to the community" (banyak berjasa) and is a "good man".
Locals told MalaysiakiniBumburing channeled funds fairly between the state constituencies, while Tangau was less even-handed.
"I was a Bumburing supporter, too, but in the end, we can't follow him if he chooses to jump into the sea. The BN has a clear direction, while Bumburing's fate is uncertain," Albert, a soft-spoken man said.
Compared to its counterpart, the BN campaign team in Tamparuli and Kiulu appears to lack fire in their bellies.
Ceramahs are less popular in Sabah, but the PKR team are still organising small ones to get the word out. Unike their Umno friends in Sulaman who have roped in scandalous speaker Umi Hafilda Ali, BN, in the Kadazandusun Murut areas, have no rallies in store.
APS helps PKR make inroads in interiors
And although they are better equipped--the PKR lot operate on the porch of a sundry shop cum local karate association while BN's centre has three airconditioned offices - a visit to the offices found dispassionate young men surfing Facebook.
BN in Kiulu and Tamparuli also appear to lack a solid Kadazandusun Murut leader, with Hajiji being the one officiating the operation rooms instead.
With PKR's team in Sulaman being the weakest link, it is Hajiji, whose wife is Dusun, and his clout that could undermine Bumburing's chances there.
Losing Tuaran - which is still 50-50 - however, may not mean that the APS tie-up is coming up to nought as the inclusion of the NGO into the Pakatan fold has lent the a more organised structure to the fractious Sabah PKR especially in the northern part of the west coast.
In Matunggong, an almost three-hour drive through windy roads north of Kota Kinabalu, 1500-odd people attended a PKR rally and said they will support APS deputy president Maijol Mahap, contesting under PKR against incumbent and PBS deputy president Maximus Ongkili (left).Pakatan Rakyat may not have been able to make these are inroads in the more interior Kadazandusun Murut areas without APS support making the Tuaran gamble a calculated one which may pay dividends elsewhere.
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