Case for BN victory: Raw anger is gone

This time around, Najib Tun Razak is leading Umno and the BN into GE13 on a much better footing

COMMENT

By Habhajan Singh

The 13th general election (GE13) is the first national poll in which the people have considered the possibility that the ruling coalition could lose.

Never in recent collective memory of the rakyat have they entertained such thoughts in the past. Back then, Barisan Nasional had always been “kebal” (impenetrable).

On the whole, the mood seems to suggest that BN will continue its hold on Putrajaya. Here is the gist of the arguments of some BN strategists.

First, the raw anger is gone. The then prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi led the coalition into the 2008 GE amid much noise and distraction, both within the BN and outside. Within, there was a revolt against the leadership of Abdullah.

Fellow mediamen who have covered him on assignments described the Penang-hailing politician, fondly known as Pak Lah, as one of the nation’s finest foreign ministers. He was good at it.

As the numero uno at Putrajaya, though, Abdullah could not shake off the perception of being a mere stop-gap premier. Worst, he was perceived to be weak. This emboldened his political opponents and led to the buildup of anger within Umno.

A good deal of the anger was directed at so-called “fourth floor boys”. The many operatives, official and unofficial, moved in the name of the prime minister. They have an inside view of politics at the highest level. Some were big players, supposedly influencing government policies and party politics.

This time around, Najib Tun Razak is leading Umno and the BN into GE13 on a much better footing.

He has a better handle on the party. He has displayed enormous energy and zeal as prime minister.

Even former premier, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, has stayed on his side. Mahathir was Abdullah’s worst nightmare in 2008. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me, reminds a Chinese proverb. Najib may have taken heed of it.

The second argument from BN supporters: There is now enough anger with Pakatan Rakyat. Idealism is what precedes experience; cynicism is what follows, someone wrote. How true.

Renewed confidence

The Pakatan coalition won control of Kelantan, Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Perak. The last state checked out from its grip when some lawmakers turned indies. Five years down the road, people have experienced life under Pakatan rule in these states.

The BN supporters believe there are enough of them who are frustrated, angry or disappointed with their performance, enough to move back their vote to the BN this time around.

Third, there is a sense of renewed confidence in their Chinese and Indian votes, more of the latter.

“Some suggest 80% of the Chinese votes would go to Pakatan. Now, if it can slice it down to 70%, that’s huge,” said one political analyst.

If all else remain the same and Indian votes swing 10% to BN, the ruling coalition stands to regain six Parliament seats, according to the Parliament voter swing simulator at undi.info. The seats are Teluk Intan, Ulu Selangor, Kuala Selangor, Hulu Langat, Kuala Langat and Wangsa Maju.

A 10% Chinese swing to BN will give Najib and his team 22 more Parliament seats including Nibong Tebal, Sungai Siput, Kuantan and Seremban.

Put them together – a 10% Indian and Chinese votes – BN will have a chance of a firm two-thirds majority in the lower house of the Parliament.

Fourth, Sabah and Sarawak. BN still believes it has a firm grip on these seats.

Fifth, the various Najib-led transformation programmes. The BN strategists believe the impact of the Economic Transformation Programme and the Government Transformation Programme is beginning to trickle down.

They are hoping to capitalise on it.

“A little here, a little there, the trickle will add up to give us enough seats to win comfortably,” summed one BN strategist.

Habhajan Singh is the executive editor of The Malaysian Reserve.