New Malay dilemma: Stay with Umno or not?

But now that BN seems weakened, the Malays are getting cold feet

In a poll by the Merdeka Centre conducted in January and February, 72 per cent of Malays said the country was headed in the right direction, versus just 20 per cent of Chinese who felt that way. Asked if they were happy with the government, 63 per cent of Malays polled said they were, compared with 20 per cent of Chinese.

Reme Ahmad, ST

IN the 1999 general election, many Malays were upset with Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN) over the sacking of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim.

But Chinese voters backed BN, arguing against changing a stable government that had grown the economy, never mind the perceived corruption in parts of the government.

Thirteen years later, the roles are reversed.

The issue of corruption is finding more resonance now with Chinese voters, many of whom are swinging towards Datuk Seri Anwar. That has given the opposition its best chance to topple the long-serving BN.

But now that BN seems weakened, the Malays are getting cold feet, some analysts say.

Indeed, many who had misgivings about BN earlier now seem to be rooting for it, according to several private pollsters and surveys by government agencies.

There are sound reasons for this.

Under BN, the Malay community's wealth and educational levels have risen sharply over the decades. Some Malays are also concerned that the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance, if it won power, would dilute Malay and Muslim rights.

"There is a long, deep-seated relationship between the Malay community and Umno," says Malaysian writer Karim Raslan.

Malays form 63 per cent of the country's population of 28.3 million.

In a poll by the Merdeka Centre conducted in January and February, 72 per cent of Malays said the country was headed in the right direction, versus just 20 per cent of Chinese who felt that way. Asked if they were happy with the government, 63 per cent of Malays polled said they were, compared with 20 per cent of Chinese.

Umno leaders have long been a steady presence in towns and villages, attending to community needs and winning the loyalty of Malay voters.

But this could be changing, Mr Raslan said, with younger Malays not as anchored to Umno.

Indeed, you might call this the New Malay Dilemma.

To be sure, reading the tea leaves on Malay sentiment isn't easy. Although they still embrace Umno, many are uncomfortable with its image as a party that has not always acted firmly against the corrupt.

The young and Internet-savvy avidly follow the scandals that have surrounded some BN figures, such as the one where a government soft loan to breed cows was ploughed into buying expensive real estate.

Urban Malays, along with the Chinese and Indians, are also irked by other issues - for instance, inflation and rising crime in Kuala Lumpur and Johor Baru.

Take Mr Muhammad Hafifi, 28, a former Penang factory worker who now helps his mother sell fruit in Simpang Ampat, Perlis.

Mr Muhammad gets his news from links provided by friends through Facebook postings.

There is a "big difference", he says, in how issues are discussed online and in the mainstream media.

His parents, he said, are for Umno, but he has yet to decide.

Still, the government is reasonably certain that come Election Day, Malays will still vote for Malaysia's Grand Old Party, Umno.

"We live comfortably in our country. I don't think we want to see problems with racial harmony, though I do know there are weaknesses in Barisan," said retail shop supervisor Embong Zahari, 48, in Alor Setar.

The Pakatan Rakyat has said it plans to ease affirmative action for Malays, and help everyone based on needs, not race.

But these are programmes that have also produced a surge in the number of Malay engineers, accountants and rich businessmen.

Some Malays are worried that the Chinese, who dominate business and the rich lists, would become even more dominant economically.

BN leaders such as Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad have played up this fear of an end to affirmative action.

Dr Mahathir, 87, is a hero among rural Malays for taking the community out of poverty and overseeing the rise of Malaysia's prosperity.

The BN is tapping into these fears by - indirectly and directly - fielding two controversial candidates from Malay supremacy group Perkasa. Should they win, it would be a clear sign that the Malays are suspicious of PR's agenda.

And while Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) talks a lot about religion, there are Malays who feel it has failed to protect Malay and Islamic rights in Selangor and Penang, where PR is in power.

Also, in places where PAS has implemented Islamic laws, not all Malays liked what they saw.

Yes, Malays do want Islam retained as Malaysia's official religion and do not want alcohol sold in convenience stores. But they baulk at laws that for instance, require men and women in Pas-controlled Kelantan to use separate supermarket counters.

"Umno practises moderation in religion and offers a balance between material and spiritual development," said Kelantan BN campaign director Hassan Harun.

In the end though, it could come down to a perception that life has indeed improved for the majority of Malaysians.

Retiree Rahim Salleh, 65, in Pendang, Kedah, has two sons who are engineers in the industrial town of Sungai Petani and in Penang. His daughter is a teacher in Kuala Lumpur.

"I am happy that they don't have to work under the sun like me," said the former padi farmer.