Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak chose to dissolve the Parliament on 3 April 2013, the fourth anniversary of his premiership. There is a special meaning and if we add up the numbers of the date, 03413, it equals to 11, his favourite number.
However, as a political leader who has not led in a general election, Najib is facing a great pressure. He has tried his best to meticulously plan everything. It now depends on whether internal and external factors are on his side.
How strong is Umno actually?
Since Umno is the backbone of the BN and the component party expected to be contesting in most constituencies, the first test then comes from the party itself.
Former Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Badawi was defeated by factional problems in the 2008 general election. Therefore, Najib must have a stronger leadership to overcome the challenge.
In March 2009 party election, Najib is the only one who gained sufficient nominations and became the party president without contesting. Therefore, he was not voted by the party's central committee and the general election this time will verify his level of support among grassroots.
It is favourable to Najib when former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad lent a helping hand to resolve undercurrents within the party. Mahathir's attack against Abdullah was one of the factors causing the BN's lose of votes in the 2008 general election and allowed Pakatan Rakyat to reap the profit.
Pak Lah and Samy Vellu to contest still?
The second test is, would the strategy of fielding only candidates with the greatest winning odds encounter resistance from local factions?
The coming election is a life-and-death battle for the BN and Najib. Therefore, the Prime Minister intended to field only candidates with the greatest odds of winning to secure more seats. There were also rumours saying that Umno would contest in some constituencies on behalf of other BN component parties, while senior leaders, including Abdullah and former MIC president Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu, would continue contesting.
For strategic needs, Pakatan Rakyat can flexibly deploy its candidates to any constituencies. As for the BN, due to its complicated organisation and tangled political interests, Najib must eliminate factionalism to ensure a smooth operation for his election deployment.
If candidates are fielded based entirely on grassroots wishes, how could new blood and elite be added into the Cabinet after the election? If the grassroots voices are ignored, emotional rebound would be triggered. Therefore, a balance might be stricken between the two.
Referendum on Najib
The third test is the BN's support rate.
As a prime minister for all, Najib hopes to gain the trust of all people. However, it is not easy to do so.
If they fail to gain expected number of Malay and Chinese votes, Umno might review its policy after the election and return to its previous route.
Therefore, the 13th general election also serves as a referendum for Najib, including his 1Malaysia concept and transformation plans.
Can the deadwood be removed?
The fourth test is whether ministers with unsatisfactory performance can be removed.
On the eve of the 2008 general election, Abdullah planned to replace some ministers but failed, due to some factors. Two Umno preferred state Menteri Besar candidates were unable to take up the posts after the election.
To replace a Menteri Besar, it must be started from fielding candidates and let the preferred candidate to lead the team, instead of allowing a double-head carriage.
Will the FD states hold firm
The fifth test is, whether the fixed deposit states can still help in stabilising the overall situation.
There are some uncertainties in all fixed deposit states, including the announcement of the decision of fielding DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang in Johor has set off a wind of anti-ruling; Pahang is hitting by the rate-earth refinery and cyanide gold mining issues; two Sabah members of Parliament have withdrawn from the BN while the video by Global Witness on alleged corruption might affect the election in Sarawak.
If the fixed deposit states are unstable, Pakatan Rakyat would then have the opportunity to seize Putrajaya.
After preparing for four years, the result will soon be revealed.
-Sin Chew Daily
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