Opposition will clinch the popular vote in the 13 th GE

 

Joe Fernandez

Familiarity breeds contempt.

There’s no doubt whatsoever that Umno/BN is very unpopular notwithstanding attempts by it to bribe its way back into power with the people’s money. If there needs to be a basis for comparison we can use Pakatan Rakyat (PR) in the opposition.

The Opposition in general and the PR Opposition Alliance in particular will clinch the popular vote come the 13thGeneral Election. On paper, Umno/BN can win 112 seats in Parliament by getting as little as 18.9 per cent of the votes cast because there are many tiny seats in Malaysia like Putrajaya which has only 15,000 voters. But they won’t have a moral mandate to rule.

PR has a very short history unlike Umno/BN which has had plenty of practice over the last 56 years rubbing people the wrong way.

There’s universal unhappiness with Umno/BN and that includes the Malays who, except for government jobs, free degrees, subsidies and handouts and a few ringgit in Amanah Saham Bumiputera, have nothing more than the proverbial shirts on the backs. Handouts are something to be ashamed about. It simply shows that the Malays, after 56 years of rule by a Melayu Umno Government, have degenerated into a community of beggars, forever dependent on the Government.

So, it can be said that the great majority of the Malays are very unhappy with Umno/BN. Even then, let’s keep on the safe side given the propaganda on bangsa, agama dan negara and confusion and assume that 60 per cent of the Malay votes cast will be for Umno/BN. That’s 9 per cent more than in 2008.

The great majority of the Chinese are very unhappy with Umno/BN. In 2008, the figure was 65 per cent. This time, it will be at least 70 per cent of the Chinese votes cast going against Umno/BN. Since Umno can no longer command the undivided support of the Malays, the Chinese see no reason to back the parties claiming to represent the non-Malays in the BN.

An Umno/BN Government not in the interest of Indians

The great majority of the Indians are very unhappy with Umno/BN. In 2008, it was an unprecedented 85 per cent voting against Umno/BN.

This time, it’s said the underclass Indians in particular have cooled down somewhat despite Umno/BN still not doing anything for them. It’s more like that they have given up on politics and government.

It would be interesting to know what percentage of the Indians registered as voters the last time turned out to vote. Was it a higher percentage than in 2004?

A higher voter turnout means the people are angry and therefore the Government of the Day would be in trouble.

An Umno/BN Gov't is not in the best interest of Indians.

Indians suffered 56 years of internal colonization under Umno/BN. Even now, Umno/BN is just bullshitting the Indians because the racist civil service doesn't release funds to Indians despite public pledges by the politicians. It's more important to throw out Umno/BN than for the Indian underclass to quarrel with PR over the Hindraf Blueprint.

Many underclass Indians are stateless and can’t vote

It's not in the Indian interest to “destroy” PR.

Anyway, the Indians – the underclass in particular -- have to decide which way their bread can be buttered.

If they decide wrongly, they will have to live with the consequences for 5 years, hopefully not another 50 years.

Abstaining will deny PR the Indian votes needed and help BN to “win”.

Indians must speak with one voice i.e. the Indians in general and members of the underclass who are not stateless.

Divided they would be that much weaker.

Indians can't be rooting for Umno/BN after having suffered internal colonization under them for 56 years. Indians will get a great benefit by voting for PR: they will be able to get rid of Umno/BN once and for all. That benefit itself is enough for the moment.

The enemy (PR) of my enemy (Umno/BN) is my friend.

Fortunately for PR, many Indian underclass are stateless and can’t vote while others and Indians in general may not entirely root for Umno/BN despite the Persatuan Hindraf Malaysia (PHM) or Hindraf Malaysia Association (Himas) urging them to do so in return for the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed too little too late with them by the outgoing ruling coalition. Many hardcore Hindraf Makkal Sakthi (HMS or Hindraf) activists themselves are taking an apolitical approach in line with the ad hoc apolitical human rights people’s movement’s objectives despite Himas claiming ownership of Hindraf.

Sarawak has historical opportunity to secede before May 5 or after

The issue before the electorate for the 13th GE: no party or coalition of parties should be in power for more than two or three terms at a stretch. 
The BN has been in power, by hook and by crook, for 56 years and should be asked to go, to be replaced by the Opposition.
The BN's by hook or by crook methods are no longer working.
The likely results, according to my Crystal Ball, come the 13th GE to be held on May 5:
BN 107 parliamentary seats (Umno Malaya 53 + Sabah Umno 12; other BN in Malaya 12; other Sabah BN 6; Sarawak BN 24).
(Note 1: BN will probably try to form a Minority Gov't on the grounds that PR is not a registered organisation and that it (BN) holds the single largest block of votes in Parliament, if not try to hand over power to the Army in the face of imminent UN Sanctions and withdrawal of diplomatic representation by Commonwealth and many countries, if Dap or Pas refuses to abandon PKR and join the BN Government and Sarawak BN decides to secede – “it now or never” -- or remain neutral to wrest greater political concessions for “Sarawak”.)
(Note 2: If it doesn’t secede (it’s now or never), Sarawak BN 24 will either remain neutral or support PR “at a price” to form the Federal Government. PR Prime Minister will be from PKR since it will have more seats than Pas and PKR/Pas combined will have more seats than Dap. Pas will support PKR to hold the Prime Minister’s post. Sarawak BN too will support PKR for the Prime Minister’s post if it comes to a count.)

It’s in the interest of a 3rd Force to have a Hung Parliament

DAP 49 (Malaya 41; Sabah 2; Sarawak 6)
PKR 31 (29 Malaya + 1 Sarawak + 1 Sabah)
(Sabah Umno 12 and 10 Umno in Malaya likely to support PKR after the GE)
Pas 25 (Malaya)
Star 5 (Sabah) – from United Borneo Alliance (United Borneo Front 3; Usno 2)

(Other Sabah BN 6 likely to support Star)
Independents 5 (Malaya)
(MIC will collapse completely if it fails to retain at least 2 of its parliamentary seats)
Note: Both BN and PR will have to focus on the 3rd Force -- Sabah, Sarawak, Sabahans and Sarawakians in Malaya, Orang Asli, Christians in Malaya, other minorities, fence sitters, Indian underclass and other Indians --  some of the seats likely to be won by Usno and Star, if not woo them.
It's in the interest of the 3rd Force to ensure that the next Parliament is a Hung one.  However, it’s not in their interest for PKR to swallow Umno or vice versa. We don’t want a repeat of Umno Baru swallowing Semangat ’46.

Brave New World from creative destruction and chaos

The State Reform Party (Star) in Sabah and Sarawak is taking the "better safe than sorry" position and maintaining that it really doesn't know who will form the Government in Putrajaya on May 5.

It could be, according to Star strategists and insiders, any number of combinations:

(a) Umno/Hindraf-BN Borneo-3rd Force;

(b) Umno/Hindraf-BN Borneo-3rd Force-Dap;

(c) BN/Hindraf;

(d) PR-BN Sarawak;

(e) PR-Umno Sabah;

(f) PR-BN Sarawak-Umno Sabah;

(g) PR-BN Sarawak-Umno Sabah-3rd Force; or

(h) any other combination of parties.
A New Order for a brave, new world can only come out of creative destruction and chaos.

All Governments are Evil and must be constantly cut down to size

If Umno/BN manages to form a Minority Government, come May 5, or a simple majority government – with or without the popular vote – it should share Federal Cabinet and Government posts with the Opposition without the necessity of a Coalition Government. In Parliament, they would continue to sit at the opposite poles.

Sharing the Government will be a pre-emptive strike, preventing the Opposition from taking to the streets and occupying Dataran Merdeka to launch a Malaysian Spring. The Opposition will take this approach if it’s convinced that Umno/BN cannot be overthrown at the ballot box.

If the Opposition forms a simple majority government, it can “return the favour” although it has pledged to conduct due diligence of Umno/BN’s 56 years in power; audit all development plans of the previous government for corruption elements; and review or scrap Umno/BN development plans as and when deemed necessary.

Royal Fugitive Blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin wrote in http://www.malaysia-today.net/mtcolumns/56233-in-this-game-of-thrones  “Remember one more thing. There is no such thing as a good government, never mind which government you choose. All governments are bad. And the longer they remain in power the worse they become (as Barisan Nasional and many other governments all over the world that have been in power for too long have proven). The only thing is how do we prevent the bad government from being bad? That is what you and I must now concentrate on.”

That’s a gross understatement on his part sitting in comfort or otherwise in England.

All Governments are Evil and must be constantly cut down to size and thrown out every term so that the people can be safe from the scoundrels – Jeffrey Kitingan, Joseph Pairin Kitingan, Bernard Giluk Dompok, Daniel Tajem, Nurul Izzah Anwar, Khairy Jamaluddin, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, Nik Aziz, Hadi Awang, Lim Kit Siang, Lim Guan Eng, P. Uthayakumar, P. Waythamoorthy and his bosom pal Najib Abdul Razak excluded -- who call themselves politicians as a first resort.

Except for Najib, Nurul, Khairy, LGE and Razaleigh, those named are in politics as a last resort. The jury is still out on whether those named are scoundrels or otherwise.

Whether a threat or a vow, Hudud is of no consequence

Democracy is all about the right of the majority in Parliament to rule and the right of the minority -- not the Opposition in Parliament -- i.e. the losing votes in an election to be heard. Under our first past the post system, the voice of the minority is not heard. The majority cannot be viewed in terms of the 55 per cent Malay majority and neither can the minority be viewed in terms of the 45 per cent non-Malay minorities.

Pas has not threatened to implement Hudud. It has vowed to implement it. The Government should cower in fear of the people and not vice versa.

Whether a threat or a vow, Hudud is of no consequence.

Hudud and creeping Islamisation are not only against the Constitution of Malaysia and the 1963 Malaysia Agreement; it's against the vested interests who will not hesitate to take out the pro-Hudud lobby.

We cannot in law and the Constitution have two separate criminal systems to judge the same people -- i.e. Malaysians -- for a crime. The idea that Hudud would only be for Muslims is therefore nonsensical. No Government in Malaysia, even with a two-thirds majority, can amend the secular Constitution and implement Hudud.

The great flaw in Islamic and Chinese legal systems is that they are based on the naive idea that "if headache, pass a law to cure it. If toothache, pass a law to sure it." That's Rule by Law.

Modern law is based on jurisprudence, principles and maxims. So-called Islamic jurisprudence discredits itself when it draws from wahy (divine revelation). That's Rule by Law. God cannot choose to hide himself from mankind for all eternity and claim to rule Earth. The Earth is ruled by man. Man subscribes to the Rule of Law.

Having said that, Pas is neither about religion nor about Islam but politics.

I will be glad if May 5 is the beginning of our "problems".  Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim has publicly pledged that Sarawak will have a new Chief Minister after May 5. Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud has been cowering in fear since that public pledge.

Detention or house arrest of Taib pre-emptive strike to prevent secession

I hope that May 5 is not at all about self-preservation (the more things appear to change, the more they remain the same). It's said that change comes but seldom, but when it comes it's sudden. In physics, we learn about resistance in the Law of Inertia: A body at rest tends to stay at rest, unless acted upon by external forces. A body in motion tends to stay in motion, unless acted upon by external forces.

If Sarawak wants to capitalize on the political disunity in Malaya and the weakness of Putrajaya, the State Assembly should preferably pass a Resolution before May 5 to secede; in which case it would automatically be out of the 13th General Election, although it can also pass the said Resolution after that date. This assumes that the members of the State Assembly are not rounded up before May 5 and detained. Alternatively, the detention or “house arrest” of Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud alone should be sufficient to get the State Assembly members in line.

Sarawak’s secession, if any, before May 5 should not bring the 13th GE to a screeching halt in Malaya and the declaration of a State of Emergency. The GE in Sabah should be terminated.

Sabah became independent on 31 Aug, 1963 and Sarawak on 22 July, 1963.

The Federal Government has been in non-compliance on the 1963 Malaysia Agreement and other constitutional documents on Malaysia which supposedly came into being on 16 Sept, 1963. Both the governments of Sabah and Sarawak will be super rich when these two Borneo nations are no longer in Malaysia. Their peoples will be ten times better off than they are now.

For another theory on the 13th GE see the following which I didn’t read:http://abrahampenrose.wordpress.com/2012/12/08/ge13-malaysia-forecast-using-the-uniform-swing-theory/

Joe Fernandez is a graduate mature student of law and an educationist, among others, who loves to write especially Submissions for Clients wishing to Act in Person. He also tutors at local institutions and privately. He subscribes to Dr Stephen Hawking’s “re-discovery” of the ancient Indian theory that “the only predictable property of the universe is chaos”. He feels compelled, as a semi-retired journalist, to put pen to paper -- or rather the fingers to the computer keyboard -- whenever something doesn't quite jell with his weltanschauung (worldview) or to give a Hearing to All. He shuttles between points in the Golden Heart of Borneo formed by the Sabah west coast, Labuan, Brunei, northern Sarawak and the watershed region in Borneo where three nations meet. He’s half-way through a semi-autobiographical travelogue, A World with a View.