Survey: BN, Pakatan in 'neck and neck race' to May 5

One week to polling day, BN and Pakatan Rakyat are quite even in terms of the latest perception survey conduced by the Universiti Malaya's Democratic and Election Centre (Umcedel) as both are estimated to have more than 40 percent of the people's support.

Umcedel director Prof Mohd Redzuan Othman (right) said the difference between the BN and Pakatan coalitions in its survey conducted between April 4, the day Parliament was dissolved, till last Saturday, was just five percent.

However, Redzuan did not want to reveal who was leading, or the actual percentage each of the two coalitions obtained in the Umcedel survey.

"The percentage of ‘undecided voters' has reduced from 21 percent in March to nine percent as of this month. 

"We see the Chinese voters, who were previously in the majority of the ‘undecided' 21 percent, have mostly decided on who to vote for. We believe the ‘undecided voters' will reduce to zero percent come election day.

"What will move these voters is the final few days of campaigning. This was seen in the 2008 general election, where the final four days of active campaigning by the opposition resulted in the March 8 tsunami," Redzuan said.

The 18-day survey covered 1,407 respondents in Peninsular Malaysia only. The respondents are voters of various ages and Sabah and Sarawak voters were not covered.

The study was done by face-to-face interviews with the respondents, each lasting 30 to 45 minutes.

There are a lot of factors that can influence the voting pattern on May 5, Redzuan said,. The afternoon heavy downpours in the evenings the country is experiencing will mean many not attending ceramah sessions and listen to radio or watch television instead.

'Voters more attracted to Pakatan manifesto'

Redzuan and his team of researchers also found the voters to be more attracted to what is being offered by Pakatan over that from the BN.

Forty-two percent of the respondents said they preferred the Pakatan manifesto, while 36 percent favoured BN and 22 percent were undecided.

The survey also showed an almost even support from the Malay community for BN (38 percent) and Pakatan (37 percent). However, more Chinese preferred Pakatan (61 percent) compared with BN (25 percent).

The Indian community favoured BN (53 percent), compared with backing for Pakatan (21 percent). 

However, Redzuan quickly pointed out that favouring a coalition's manifesto does not necessarily translate into votes. 

“We have found that Pakatan accusations of BN as taking ideas out of its manifesto has worked to move the people's perception,” he said.

Ideas such as reducing petrol prices, said Redzuan, abolishing the National Higher Education Fund (PTPTN) loan and reducing the prices of cars were very attractive to the people.

The survey also found that the putting up of posters or flags have a minimal effect in influencing the voters, with 66 percent of those polled saying that there was no effect on them, while 29 percent saying the flags and posters have an effect.

The study also showed that the PKR battle cry Jelajah Merdeka Rakyat getting a 19 percent attraction compared with the widely publicised BN's Janji Ditepati campaign (16 percent), followed byJelajah Negara Kebajikan of PAS at 10 percent and DAP's Ubah, four percent.

“Of the 1,407 respondents, 49 percent says they did not attend any ceramah,” Redzuan said.

“The Janji Ditepati call is not effective as some of those polled, such as teachers, have complained that they have been forced to attend ceramah  and that what was said at such campaigns by the BN were not being adhered to,” he said.

Redzuan maintained the final push in the coming eight days of the election campaign from tomorrow would well determine who would form the next government.