Will GE13 campaign prove crucial?

Many of the factors which played out in 2008 are no longer relevant in today’s setting. Malaysia has been in a permanent state of campaign for the past two years.

COMMENT

By Galvin Wong

On April 3, Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak finally announced the dissolution of Parliament, something many Malaysians have been waiting for since 2012.

His announcement will set the final stage of what is considered the most competitive political battle since Independence.

With polling day falling on May 5, all eyes now turn to the last few weeks of campaigning.

In 2008, the campaigning period between dissolution and polling day generated staggering momentum for the opposition and largely contributed to its best ever showing.

Will the campaigning period for the 13th general election have similar importance and effect?

The campaigning period back in 2008 was effective because of a number of factors. Most importantly, the large turnout at ceramah allowed the opposition to spread the message of the failures of the BN government and swing votes.

These ceramah allowed the people to hear what exactly had been going on in the country that they might not have known due to the government’s control of mainstream media.

Among the issues pushed then were the government’s poor handling of crime, cost of living, the Bersih and Hindraf protests, as well as scandals such as the VK Lingam case; all these led people to come out in droves at opposition ceramah to listen to what the opposition had to say.

These unprecedented huge turnouts were widely reported in social media and Internet news portals.

As the word spread, the momentum generated resulted in even more people coming out to attend opposition events. Near polling day, top opposition leaders were pulling crowds of up to 30,000.

Another effect of this momentum was that people slowly believed that change was possible and that the opposition could make crucial gains after almost half a century of insignificance in Parliament.

The momentum amplified the effect of the opposition’s message and the impact of the government’s past misdeeds.

Merdeka Centre’s surveys during the campaign period saw Barisan Nasional start out with 57% of support when Parliament was first dissolved but drop to 48% by polling day on March 8.

Another factor that resulted in this large drop during GE12 was the long official campaigning period of 13 days between nomination and polling day.

This allowed the opposition to cover more ground and sustain its message of change among the people for a longer period of time.

The combination of the message reaching more voters and increasing sentiment of the already upset voters during the official campaign trail accounted for two-thirds of the drop in support from 54% to 48%.

Undecided voters

Many of the factors above are no longer relevant in today’s setting. Malaysia has been in a permanent state of campaign for the past two years.

The opposition has organised numerous ceramah over the past two years reaching the urban and rural voters alike. Thousands attend Anwar Ibrahim’s ceramahs weekly. Such large turnouts are now considered normal for both parties and no longer generate the excitement as before.

Also, the message the opposition intends to spread about corruption and poor governance is further facilitated due to social media’s increasing penetration among the Malaysian people.

Over the four years, people have also come to believe that a change in government is also possible.

In fact, the opposition has over the past year stressed its ability to win a majority in Parliament this coming election. The factors that generated momentum and excitement among the people will no longer have much effect on this campaign.

However, this does not mean that the campaign trail is no longer important and will not have much impact on the final outcome of the election.

While the campaigns of the last two years have formed solid blocs of support for both coalitions, there still remains a large segment of voters that remain undecided.

According to a UMCEDEL survey, they make up almost 21% of total voters. With 42% of people stating BN will win and 37% believing Pakatan will win, winning a large majority of these voters will prove decisive.

These fence-sitters are made up of three groups of voters. The first group of voters are those that do not care about politics and are disconnected from the current issues.

The second group are those that know the issues but are still unable to make a decision and the last group of voters are those that will refuse to vote due to factors such as disillusionment and disgust with both parties.

The coming campaigning period will be crucial to winning the votes of the first two groups. When the campaigning begins, the whole nation’s focus will be on the impending general election.

Everyone alike will be catching up on issues and attending political events. This means that this is the best time for a parties to reach out and convince the first group of voters that will start paying attention to what they have to say.

It is also the final time that the parties will make a pitch to convince the second group of voters. It is unlikely to have any impact on the third group and may even alienate them even more.

For example, those disillusioned with both parties will be disgusted even more due to increased attacks highlighting the faults on both sides.

Galvin Wong is a political analyst.