"Jika Pilihanraya Esok Pembangkang Boleh Menang 2/3 Parlimen"

Saya ingin tujukan tulisan ini khas kepada ahli Majlis Tertinggi UMNO, Menteri-Menteri UMNO, KB, AJK Bahagian dan semua ahli UMNO. Dengar baik-baik. This is serious ok. 

Saya lebih selesa menulis dalam BI sebab lebih cepat menaip, boleh melebihi 110 km/j.

During 22 years of Tun Dr Mahathir's rule, Dr Mahathir was ever ready to dissolve Parliament and call for  snap elections. I recall Dr Mahathir saying it once - 'We can dissolve Parliament even tomorrow'.  

This was not arrogance by Dr Mahathir. It was the solidness of the administration, it was a comfort that we always had that the BN would always win the general elections at any time.  That is now past history.

Yesterday evening I had a long conversation with a very astute VVIP and he said, 'If we have the general elections tomorrow the Opposition will win 2/3 majority in Parliament'.

I think this is a correct observation.  Kalaulah pilihanraya diadakan esok, Pembangkang boleh menang dengan 2/3 majority. 

Saya rasa jika pilihanraya diadakan tiga tahun dari sekarang mungkin Pembangkang akan menang 3/3 kerusi Parlimen.  Ahli MT UMNO bolehlah  tanam jagung. 

OK tuan-tuan dan puan-puan di sini ada sedikit lagi berita gempar.  55 kerusi Parlimen UMNO terletak dalam kawasan Felda.  In the recent PRK Rompin,  UMNO  lost over 6000 votes to PAS. Many of these votes are from Felda. Maksudnya sokongan bagi UMNO di kawasan Felda pun makin merosot.

Now here is some bad news about Felda Global Ventures from The Star :

• Felda Global Ventures target price cut to RM1.91
• Wednesday, 27 May 2015
• target price for Felda Global Ventures from RM2.01 to RM1.91 
• core net loss RM44mil in first quarter March 31, 2015
• results below full yr projections of RM311mil & RM430mil, respectively
• lower FFB output and RM44m downstream losses
• stock remains a Reduce, potential removal from FBM 30 index 
• FFB output (-20% on-year), lower CPO prices 
• losses from canola operations in Canada, oleo operations in US, refineries
• higher earnings from 51%-owned MSM (sugar division)
• one-off gains RM29mil and RM12mil from disposal of AACo and FISC
• FGV impacted by low CPO prices and floods 
• exploring disposal of non-core biz, Canadian operations
• group has used up IPO proceeds
• FGV’s estates posted steeper 15% fall in FFB yield 
• concerned by this and poor results
•  FGV may lose spot in KLCI index during next review 
•  expect dividend payments to be cut 

The listed Felda Global Ventures or FGV is in deep trouble. From a hugely profitable plantation giant they are now making losses. The share price has gone from RM5.50 at IPO in June 2012 to just above RM1.91 per share by June 2015.  

That is a drop of  65% in three years.

This means close to 65% of FGV's market capitalisation has been wiped out since FGV was listed on June 28,  2012.  

The market cap of FGV went from RM17.1B in December 2012 to just over RM7.0B now.  Humpty Dumpty has had a great fall.

Ok here is something else. There is something called Koperasi Permodalan Felda or KPF - this is a coop society which is owned directly by the Felda settlers. The KPF holds shares and stakes in the Felda companies including a small stake in FGV. 

Being a coop they used to distribute good dividends to the members. In good years they have given over 15% dividends. Even in 2012 and 2013 their dividends were 10%.

The talk now is with all the losses being racked up by FGV and Felda overall, there may not be any profits in the Koperasi as well for this year.  

Without profits, the Koperasi CANNOT declare any dividends (this is a law under the Cooperatives Act).  

So kepada semua ahli UMNO, sila semak maklumat ini dan bersedialah untuk menghadapi sedikit lagi isu "Felda berpenyakit".  

Here is some old news about Felda :

1. MACC cleared (Felda) of any wrongdoing in purchase of two hotels in London.
2. did not address whether son of Felda Chairman Isa involved in purchase 
3. RM538m for Grand Serviced Apartment, RM330m for Grand Plaza Kensington

So that is the Felda story.  Mula peneroka kerja macam lembu, berpeluh baldi-baldi, kena patuk ular ada juga dibaham harimau.  Tetapi dapat hidup senang sikit dengan bantuan Felda.  

They sold their FFBs and made money. 

They also got dividends from the koperasi 10%, 15% and even 17% a year.

Then the korporat guys came in. Gedam gedum, listing lah, FGV lah, beli saham IPO lah, beli hotel di London lah entah ape lagi.

Now FGV is making losses. Saham FGV is becoming 'paper lama'. 

Peneroka yang beli saham pula kena bayar hutang 'pinjaman beli saham FGV' kepada bank. The FGV  share is  worth 35% of its IPO price.

And then to add salt to the injury, the peneroka may also not be getting any dividends from their Koperasi either. 

So tuan-tuan dan puan-puan MT UMNO, the question is can UMNO hold those 55 Parliamentary seats in the Felda areas?  

My friend says if the general elections are held tomorrow the Pembangkang will win 2/3 majority. 

You know the problem. 

Masalahnya bukan Hang Tuah. 

Bukan Hang Kasturi. 

Bukan Hang Lekiu.

Masalahnya Hang Pi Mana?