WILL THE SELANGOR GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE TONIGHT?

Or what if Umno, Khalid Ibrahim, and 16 others from PAS and PKR manage to form a new coalition of 29 members and the Sultan consents to this new government? Tomorrow morning the Sultan can swear in this new government and that would be the end of the Pakatan Rakyat Selangor State Government.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Pakatan Rakyat has ceased to exist, said Lim Guan Eng of DAP today. Rafizi Ramli, however, said that PKR’s political bureau will meet tonight to discuss its position and future in response to DAP’s official declaration that Pakatan Rakyat is now officially dead.

The PAS Youth Chief, Nik Mohd Abduh Nik Abdul Aziz, on the other hand, said that Pakatan Rakyat will continue to exist despite DAP’s declaration that the pact no longer exists. Nik Abduh insists that as long as all three parties do not officially dissolve Pakatan Rakyat, a two-party coalition between PAS and PKR should suffice to ensure that Pakatan Rakyat lives on.

In other words, what Nik Abduh means is that DAP can be considered as having left Pakatan Rakyat but as long as PAS and PKR agree to stay married then Pakatan Rakyat would continue to exist.

So there you have it, three coalition members with three different views as to whether Pakatan Rakyat is already dead or whether it still exists.

So the ball is now at PKR’s feet. If tonight PKR says that Pakatan Rakyat still exists then it would have to exist as a PAS-PKR coalition minus DAP. If, however, PKR agrees with DAP, then tonight Pakatan Rakyat would be buried.

The issue of kicking PAS out of Pakatan Rakyat and PKR continuing in the coalition with DAP no longer applies. This is because of DAP’s official announcement today that it regards Pakatan Rakyat as dead.

PKR now has to decide whether it wants to divorce PAS or it wants to divorce DAP. It can only choose one partner and cannot remain married to both. And after tonight Pakatan Rakyat would either be a PAS-PKR coalition or a DAP-PKR coalition. It will no longer be a PAS-PKR-DAP coalition.

And this would trigger yet another problem. Selangor is a Pakatan Rakyat government of PAS, PKR and DAP. Once one of the three leave (or get kicked out of) the coalition, then the PAS-PKR-DAP government technically collapses.

What would happen to Selangor then? Would Menteri Besar Azmin Ali seek the consent of HRH the Sultan of Selangor to dissolve the State Assembly and allow fresh state elections to be held? Or would a new coalition be formed with PKR, DAP and ‘independent’ PAS State Assemblypersons?

The new Selangor coalition government of Pakatan Rakyat Baru would need at least 29 members of the State Assembly. 15 can be from DAP and 13 from PKR. That is only 28. So they need at least one more State Assemblyperson from PAS to make it 29.

But are all the 13 State Assemblypersons from PKR agreeable to what DAP is doing — sticking a knife in the back of PAS? We are, of course, assuming that all 15 from DAP and all 13 from PKR are united and that at least one or two from PAS will cross over.

However, the even more important question to ask is would HRH the Sultan agree to this new coalition? What if Azmin seeks an audience with the Sultan to present this new and alternative state government to the Sultan and HRH rejects it? Would Azmin then dissolve the state assembly?

Or what if Umno, Khalid Ibrahim, and 16 others from PAS and PKR manage to form a new coalition of 29 members and the Sultan consents to this new government? Tomorrow morning the Sultan can swear in this new government and that would be the end of the Pakatan Rakyat Selangor State Government.