IN ONE FELL SWOOP, NEW MALAY HEROES AMANAH CAN CHOP OFF 'CORRUPT' NAJIB, 'EXTREMIST' PAS

The stakes are high at the twin parliamentary by-elections in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar on June 18 - will newcomers, Parti Amanah Negara, become a viable alternative to PAS in the Pakatan Harapan opposition coalition?

If Amanah survives by putting up a good showing, does that mean that Pakatan stands a better chance in the next general elections? If it does badly, does it mean the end of opposition chances to win GE14 despite Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak coming under siege over 1Malaysia Development Bhd or 1MDB and other issues?

And if BN wins against an opposition divided, does that necessarily mean an endorsement for BN under Najib and his dalliance with PAS to move forward amendments to Islamic law which allow for increased penalties for offences?

That’s a lot of weight on Amanah’s infant shoulders and even a herculean effort, which includes securing the services of former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and former trade and industry minister as well as former Kuala Kangsar MP Rafidah Aziz, may not be enough, according to conventional political wisdom which puts BN as clear favourites. But is that really so?

Both Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar were marginally won seats previously for BN (see chart). In the 2013 elections, BN won Sungai Besar by a mere 399 votes in a direct fight against the PAS candidate. In Kuala Kangsar, the margin of victory for BN against the PAS candidate in a three-cornered fight which included an independent was 1,082.

This time, in Sungai Besar it is a three-cornered fight between PAS, Amanah and BN and in Kuala Kangsar it is a four-way contest with an independent entering the fray in addition to the three parties.

The key question is how much will the opposition vote be divided by PAS and Pakatan Harapan being on opposing sides in this battle and how the vote will be divided. While it may be easier to predict how the Chinese votes may go in the current environment, and to a lesser extent the Indian votes, the Malay votes are going to be much more difficult to predict.

Let’s take Sungai Besar first, the seat with a higher number of voters at 42,365 with Malays accounting for 66%, Chinese 31% and Indians 2%. With PAS moving the so-called hudud bill forward with Umno’s support, the Chinese are likely to be solidly against both PAS and Umno.

Let’s assume 80% of Chinese votes go to Amanah - that will mean Chinese votes for Amanah will account for 24.8% (80% of 31). Let’s assume 60% of Indian votes go to Amanah - that works out to 1.2%, giving total Chinese plus Indian votes to Amanah of 26% of total.

Since PAS is less likely to endear itself to Chinese and Indian voters and due the work of MCA and MIC in BN, let’s assume that of the remaining 20% Chinese votes and 40% Indian votes, 80% will go to BN and only 20% to PAS. Our calculations indicate the number of Chinese and Indian votes Umno will get in that case will be about 5.3% and PAS, about 1.3%. The tally so far, Amanah 26%, Umno 5.3% and PAS 1.3%.

Now for the all-important Malay vote of 66%. We are going to assume that Umno has just 45% Malay support, less than majority because of 1MDB and related issues. Let’s say PAS has 35% and Amanah only 20% as it is relatively new. Total Malay votes under this scenario for Umno is 45% of 66 or 29.7%, PAS 23.1% and Amanah 13.2%.

Add this to the tally in the previous paragraph and it works out to 39% of total votes for Amanah, 35% for Umno and 25% for PAS. And victory for Amanah! This is of course just one scenario and there are many other ways that it can play out. But what it shows is that despite an opposition split, Amanah can win.

We repeated the same calculations for Kuala Kangsar with the same ratio of support for the various parties and their corresponding support among the three main races. And what do you know, it still works out to a victory for Amanah but just barely. The figures are Amanah 37%, Umno 36% and PAS 25%.

The figures seem to indicate that Amanah has a better than even chance of winning both seats and the fight may turn out to be one which is largely between Amanah and Umno, if the Chinese largely reject PAS and Umno in favour of Amanah. And Amanah can win even if they have very low relative levels of support from Malays.

But that’s because of a split in votes between Umno and PAS. Note that in our scenario in both Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar, Umno plus PAS beats Amanah, although admittedly we have given a very low level of acceptance for Amanah among Malay voters. The implications are clear - if Umno and PAS ally, they can win lots of seats based on a solid Malay support base. Which is why Umno is courting PAS.

Conversely if PAS were to somehow ally with Pakatan Harapan in spite of everything else, that would form a formidable and the strongest opposition to BN and Umno in the future although that seems unlikely with Amanah in the picture now.

Amanah may not need a herculean effort to win the two seats - it is not the impossibility that it seemed at first glance. Still the strongest opposition will be one with PAS in it and its absence in Pakatan Harapan will be strongly felt.

For Najib, if Amanah wins both seats despite a split opposition, it will be big blow and add further pressure for him to step down. But if Umno keeps both, it may not necessarily be a public endorsement for him considering the opposition was split anyway. - M'kini