RANTAU POLLS | For more than 14 years, Mohamad Hasan has had a firm grip on Rantau. All his victories in this seat have been nothing less than landslides, with his support level never going below 65 percent of the total votes cast.
Having led Umno to victory as the party's acting president in two previous by-elections, the expectation is that this former Negeri Sembilan menteri besar is formidable to easily pick up his hometown in tomorrow's by-election to make it a perfect hattrick.
However, Mohamad no longer appears as invincible as he once was. While still formidable, the Rantau by-election will be his first serious test against Pakatan Harapan, which has the power of incumbency.
This by-election is a four-cornered contest, but it is essentially a two-horse race between Mohamad and Pakatan Harapan's Dr S Steram. The other two are independent candidates R Malar and Mohd Nor Yassin.
Though BN and Harapan have boasted about respectable turnouts at their ceramah events, many in the audience - often clad in party colours or uniforms - are not voters in Rantau but supporters who have been mobilised nationwide to help in the by-election campaign.
Unlike the Cameron Highlands and Semenyih by-elections, where BN's imminent victory was apparent towards the final stretch of campaigning, voter sentiment in Rantau still appears murky on the eve of polling day.
Many Rantau voters Malaysiakini spoke to were unchanged in their entrenched support for either BN or Harapan. If a large part of these voters maintains the status quo, it could become a close contest.
Rantau did not vote at the state level during the last general election as Mohamad received a walkover. However, they did vote at the parliamentary level, which provides some insight into their preferred choice in the 2018 general election.
Based on how the Rantau residents voted at the parliamentary level, about 48.01 percent chose Harapan while 45.6 percent backed BN. PAS received a mere 4.54 percent of the votes cast.
This does not necessarily mean that Mohamad would have lost if there was a contest for the Rantau state seat in the 14th general election, as he is well-liked by the locals and has personal appeal.
'Mohamad's personal touch'
Born and raised in Rantau, Mohamad is a familiar face to most voters there, who know him as Tok Mat and cherish his contributions.
"He has helped the Indian community a lot. Schools, temples and education for our children, he helps every one of every race," K Murugan, a 53-year-old mechanic told Malaysiakini when met in Taman Kelab Tuanku, a polling district where BN won in the last general election at the parliamentary level.
Malay voters in rural areas are especially fond of how Mohamad would make time to attend celebrations or funerals.
In Kampung Sega, which has the highest concentration of BN voters in Rantau, local Harapan chief coordinator Azmi Said admitted the majority there would still vote for BN.
"They are still loyal to Tok Mat and Umno. He always attends kenduri or events. He doesn't observe protocol when he enters the kampung.
"He enters kitchens and eats food (with the villagers) or packs food as he pleases. That is his advantage," Azmi, who is also the Kampung Sega Hilir village committee chief said.
He added that his own family still supports BN, even though he has been a PKR man for 18 years.
On the campaign trail, Mohamad often ventures out on his own to visit voters in the late afternoon, without informing the media or his own officers.
In comparison, Streram - who has lived in Rantau for more than three years, is described by detractors as an awkward character.
"We had a drink with him once. We tried (to get to know him), but we couldn't understand what he was saying," said Felda Sendayan voter Saiful Sarani. The 37-year-old is squarely behind Mohamad.
Another BN supporter from Kampung Sega Hulu, Mohd Amin Hashim, told of his distaste for Streram's interactions with a local flood victim.
"Streram was brought to see a flood victim in the village once. They already had their belongings destroyed, but all Streram did was look.
"(He asked) 'How bad was the flood' and we showed him the water that had risen to about three feet, and then he left!" Mohd Amin said.
His wife, Intan, chimed in and said Streram "was not responsive". Mohd Amin said the flood victim eventually got aid from Mohamad.
Streram, an anesthesiologist, appears to lack charisma and can sound monotonous when speaking in English and Bahasa Malaysia.
'Streram's appeal to Indian voters'
Harapan's campaign has also put less emphasis on Streram as a person and instead focused on promoting on the ruling coalition's top leaders, including PKR president Anwar Ibrahim, who is the MP for Port Dickson, which is adjacent to Rembau. Rantau is a state seat within the Rembau parliamentary seat.
However, Streram speaks Tamil fluently and fares better with Indian voters, who make up 27 percent of the voters in Rantau.
Of the 505 state seats nationwide, Rantau has the eighth largest Indian population, making this community an important factor in determining the outcome of the by-election.
While many elderly Indian voters are still loyal to BN, the young have been shifting towards the new ruling coalition.
"Many of the youths here are with Harapan," said 42-year-old lorry driver K Aramugan when met at Taman Angsamas.
Even if Harapan can increase its Indian support, it must contend with the traditional trend of lower turnout in a by-election among Chinese voters, which have to date, given strong support to the coalition.
Furthermore, while PAS may have a very weak presence in Negeri Sembilan, the Islamist party's support for BN could still make a difference in a close fight.
Considering these factors, Harapan not only must defend its Malay support but also seek to increase them, even marginally, if it is to stand a realistic chance against Mohamad.
The wildcard
A wildcard that could influence the election’s outcome is a small but notable number of Umno members who have defected to PKR, Bersatu, or Amanah.
Taman Angsamas Bersatu branch leader Rusmi Abdul Rahman claimed to have registered 100 new members after the general election. He is confident that Harapan can increase its majority in the Angsamas polling district from 22 to more than 100.
Both PKR and Bersatu have also staged events to accept membership forms on the campaign trail.
One PKR convert put it bluntly that it is about supporting the government of the day.
"Before the general election we supported BN, but now the government has changed so we must support the government," Hashim Dollah, 65, said when met in Kampung Sri Lalang last week. Hashim's wife, Kamisah Mat Shah, is now the Ulu Lalang PKR branch chief.
Harapan leaders appear cognisant of such sentiments, as they repeatedly stress during ceramah sessions that Mohamad, as an opposition leader, cannot do anything for the people of Rantau, whereas Streram would have the ear of the government.
However, it is yet unclear how many of these new defectors would actually vote for Harapan on April 13.
Angsamas Bersatu branch leader Rusmi Abdul Rahman said it is not unusual for the new PKR or Bersatu members to still be card-carrying Umno members.
Malays voters from Rantau also tend to shy away from the limelight during the Harapan ceramah programmes, choosing to lurk around the corners. One such BN-turned Harapan supporter was Mohd Daud Samek, who was met during a ceramah at Taman Angsamas.
"Many of my neighbours were strong BN supporters but when the government changed, the Malays don't want to make it obvious as they would feel embarrassed if they encounter old leaders (from the previous government) while they are leaning towards PKR," he said.
However, Harapan must also contend with some voters who are disillusioned at the ruling coalition's pace of implementing its general election pledges.
Overcoming voter disillusionment
"If Harapan wins here in Rantau, it must deliver what it promised to the people as quickly as possible," said local voter S Rajkumar, who hails from Bandar Ekar.
"I know youths who voted for Harapan last year, but now support BN again because the PTPTN promise was not fulfilled," Rajkumar added.
Harapan had promised to allow borrowers earning less than RM4,000 a month to defer National Higher Education Fund (PTPTN) loan repayments - within 100 days of coming to power - but is still working on a suitable scheme.
The Rantau seat fell vacant after the Federal Court upheld a decision to void Mohamad's walkover win last year.
This stemmed from the returning officer's move to block Streram from filing his nomination papers in the 2018 general election.
Mohamad will go into the polls tomorrow in a formidable position - but it won't be a walk in the park like it used to be - for the three-term assemblyperson. - Mkini
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