See Russia-Ukraine tension through peace lens

 

Some Western leaders look at Russia-Ukraine tensions through the binoculars of war, warning that a Russian attack on Ukraine is imminent and threatening to impose sanctions against Russia in the event it invades Ukraine. 

For instance, the White House National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne stated recently that “President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February.” 

In anticipation of this “invasion” Bob Menendez, chair of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations said lawmakers were devising the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia that would be “crippling to their economy.” 

However, Russia denied any plans to invade Ukraine, accusing the West of escalating the situation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, while recognising the existence of tension, has stated that “we don’t want a war”, but at the same time, he said “we won’t let our interests be rudely trampled on and ignored.”

Russia feels that Western powers are infiltrating Eastern Europe to such an extent that it threatens its security and deprives it of its traditional "sphere of influence." 

Ukraine is one of the Eastern European countries where Russia's "vital interests are rooted [not only in geography but also] in national history and culture." 

As a former Soviet republic, Ukraine shares a border with Russia and has deep social and cultural ties with it, where Russian is widely spoken. 

Russia, for security reasons, does not want Nato to expand its "sphere of influence" to countries in Eastern Europe. But to Russia’s displeasure, Nato has already accepted some former Soviet republics, such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as its members. 

In 2008, Nato pledged Ukraine that it too would one day join it as a member – a pledge which Russia does not like. Russia wants this commitment be rescinded, but Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg has so far rejected Russia’s demands. 

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov

Russia wants Ukraine to be barred from Nato membership. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has said: “For us, it’s absolutely mandatory to ensure Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of Nato.”

However, it appears Nato’s door kept open to Ukraine. Some Western analysts argued that Nato should close its door and no longer follow through its 2008 pledge that Ukraine will ultimately become a member of the alliance. They believe that if this concession is given to Russia, it will reduce the existing tension, otherwise, the danger of invading Ukraine persists. 

Good if steps are taken to deescalate the tension but if the tension persists then that does not necessarily mean there will be a war. In fact, the two main parties in this conflict, namely Russia and Ukraine, said war is not imminent. Why should the outsiders hold a different opinion of the situation? Do they understand what they are saying? 

Saying that invasion of Ukraine is imminent or any statement to that effect puts that country in a state of "panic" making it to stop all economic and social activities and focus on preparing for war, a war that no one is sure will ever happen. 

Resolve conflict peacefully

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, reiterating the immanency of the war creates too much “panic weighing on the country’s economy. 

He said: “I don’t consider the situation now more tense than before. There is a feeling abroad that there is war here. That’s not the case.”

Assuming that war occurs between Russia and Ukraine, which we hope will never ever occur, will Nato would join the fight on the side of Ukraine to fight Russia? 

The answer appears to be no, as was made clear by Nato that since Ukraine is not a member it does not enjoy the right of collective security under Article 5 of its charter, which considers an armed attack against any of its members as an attack against all of them and all of them together attack the attacker. 

This means if Russia invades Ukraine, according to Article 5, Nato and its members, including the US, have no legal obligation to defend it. In such a situation, Ukraine has to defend itself alone. 

Western countries may provide Ukraine with military assistance but this may mean prolongation of a possible proxy war.

Russia has said it will not invade Ukraine. In fact, Russian armed forces chief Valery Gerasimove even denounced reports of an impending invasion as a lie. If Russia means what it says, then what makes outside players think otherwise? 

It is not clear. Yes, in 2014 Russia annexed the autonomous Crimea in southern Ukraine, but this does not mean that Russia will do exactly the same thing to the remaining territory of Ukraine, though the skeptics may think otherwise.

Russia-Ukraine conflict must be resolved peacefully. Given the deadly and destructive effects of war and what it will bring to the world economy, we can boldly say that war is not a good option, it should be shunned and avoided, because it brings nothing but misery and homelessness, especially for the innocents. 

Give diplomacy a chance to take its course. The 20-year failed US-Nato war in Afghanistan teaches us a good lesson that war is not the way forward. Moreover, starting a war at this difficult time, in which the Covid-19 epidemic has caused great suffering to humanity, is morally incorrect and legally dubious. 

Article 2(4) of the Charter of the United Nations generally prohibits the use of force in international relations. All parties to the conflict must abide by this basic rule of international law, reduce the tension and resolve their dispute through dialogue, mediation or any other peaceful means of their choice. - Mkini

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MOHAMMAD NAQIB EISHAN JAN is a professor at the International Islamic University of Malaysia.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.