Will Muhyiddin cross the Rubicon and quit Umno?

Muhyiddin Yassin must make some bold moves in the wake of his suspension as deputy president by Umno, analysts say, or risk being a casualty in the party chief’s bid for survival.

The most effective way for party dissidents Muhyiddin and vice-president Mohd Shafie Apdal to make a dent in Umno president Najib Abdul Razak’s seemingly formidable armour is to leave, banking on creating a strong ripple effect as the two jump ship.

“If they are willing to do so, Barisan Nasional will lose at least two parliamentarians. The number may not be significant but at least there is a new show.

"Once they quit the party, it depends whether they can become the core and prompt others to follow suit," political scientist Wong Chin Huat pitched to Malaysiakini, when contacted.

Ousted from the deputy prime minister’s post last year, Muhyiddin was suspended yesterday by the Umno supreme council for repeatedly speaking out publicly against the party leader.

The potential impact - should Muhyiddin make that leap of faith - should not be underestimated.

He once held the Johor menteri besar’s post, is the BN parliamentarian for Pagoh, and remains its division chief.

Shafie, too, can tip some things over if he shifts his weight. In addition to being the Semporna MP, he is one of the pioneers who paved the way for Umno's entry into Sabah in the early 90s.

Both could get some support from other disgruntled leaders. Prior to today's Umno supreme council meeting, former Kedah menteri besar Mukhriz Mahathir, who was also axed by Najib, has said that any action against Muhyiddin would be “the final nail in Umno's coffin”.

He has also warned that such a move would lead Umno members to leave the party.

Serious about Mahathir

Both Muhyiddin and Shafie joining forces with Mukhriz’s father and former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad in the fight against their common enemy will amplify the chance of Najib’s removal.

Muhyiddin has no other option but to work with Mahathir, argues Universiti Islam Antarabangsa (UIA) assistant prof Maszlee Malik.

"If he wants to walk his talk and save the nation and be viable in politics, he must be serious (in joining hands) with Mahathir.

"Otherwise, he will be kept in (Umno’s) cold storage," he said.

The Malay party, however, attempted to contain the impact of the Muhyiddin factor by suspending his key party position rather than revoking his membership to avoid an internal uprising.

The suspension seems to be a well-planned move to rein in Muhyiddin’s influence but not to the extent of ending his political career.

"If Muhyiddin is kicked out of Umno he will not be alone; 1998 Reformasi will be repeated," he said.

During Reformasi in 1998-1999, sacked deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim led a series of street demonstrations against Mahathir after he was sacked from party, sparking a revolt which echoes were felt a decade later when BN lost its two-thirds parliamentary majority in the 2008 national polls.

Currently, BN has 134 parliamentary seats while the opposition has 87, with Khalid Ibrahim representing Bandar Tun Razak as the sole independent after he was sacked by PKR.

If the Muhyiddin camp makes its move, the ground will at least rumble, even if it doesn’t shift. But can be play a key role in the offensive against Najib?

Ideas chief executive Wan Saiful Wan Jan offers a healthy dose of skepticism in the ex-DPM’s ability to launch a challenge.

"I can't see anything that can be done by Muhyiddin's camp when Muhyiddin himself is not standing up.

"And for now, I don't see any difference whether he or Shafie quits or stays. They haven't been doing much anyway," he said.

Muhyiddin has not clearly indicated that he wants to challenge Najib despite speaking up against his ex-boss, Wan Saiful argued.

"It will not be easy for him to recover (from the suspension) and mount a challenge," he added.

Nevertheless, he said people must wait for Muhyiddin's reaction before they typecast him.

Crossing the Rubicon

For Wong, who is also a fellow at the Penang Institute, Muhyiddin’s suspension is an indicator that infighting within Umno has intensified.

This could push the Muhyiddin camp to cross the Rubicon and quit Umno, said Wong.

However, he pointed out that if Umno grassroots are worried that toppling Najib would imperil the party, Muhyiddin will not get much support, even if they feel he has been unjustly treated.

"But if the backfire among the society is strong and becomes a wave, that's another story," he said.

As Najib collects the scalps of Umno dissidents, another battle is brewing outside the party.

Former law minister Zaid Ibrahim is organising a gathering slated for March 27 to call for Najib's resignation. Mahathir - Najib’s number one nemesis - has since confirmed his attendance.

Wong doesn't rule out a possibility of Najib recruiting PAS to his team if the gathering gains momentum and it looks like he is losing control.

"People like (PAS’ Pokok Sena MP) Mahfuz Omar wants to topple (Najib). (However) if Najib feels a sense of instability and uses hudud to canvass PAS, will PAS be able to resist?" he asked.

Najib's safe exit plan

With Muhyiddin's suspension, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is tasked with the duties of the deputy president.

According to Wong, Najib's promotion of Zahid is to safeguard himself should he be forced to step down.

"One of the possibilities is that he (Najib) thinks he may not last long and has to negotiate to step down.

"Other people may not be able to protect him; perhaps Zahid can. Helping Zahid to gain power is the only way.

"From this point of view, in the short run, Najib will first probably cut off all these (dissenting) people, then start negotiating for stepping down," he said.

Attorney-general Mohamed Apandi Ali has cleared Najib in both RM2.6 billion scandal and SRC case, but foreign probes are ongoing and have frozen a number of 1MDB-related bank accounts.

But if Najib can completely neutralise the forces arrayed against him within and outside the party, it is likely he may decide to stay on for many years to come. ---Mkini