Analysts: Najib, Rosmah scandals can turn Amanah's tide

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Pakatan Harapan is making a final push to woo voters in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar, with less than 24 hours to go before polling day.

Over the past two weeks, opposition leaders had been harping on scandals surrounding Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, his wife Rosmah Mansor, and 1MDB as part of its campaign.

They even roped in Najib's top critic, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, to boost Amanah's chances of defeating BN and PAS.

Initial observations indicate that BN is headed for victory in Sungai Besar, where the opposition seems to have less traction.

PAS and Amanah's ceramah in the Selangor constituency barely ever peaked above 200 people.

However, Universiti Malaya pundit Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the scandals might still turn the tide for Amanah in Sungai Besar.

"The effect is especially felt among the middle class and Chinese voters," Awang Azman told Malaysiakini, adding that BN was working hard to counter the effects.

But he said the majority of voters in the semi-rural seat were more concerned about bread and butter issues, and thus were more easily impressed by "momentary aid" from BN.

Meanwhile, political analyst Tang Ah Chai (photo) felt that Amanah started off as the weakest of the three parties contesting in Kuala Kangsar.

However, he said Amanah seemed to have pulled ahead of PAS and was splitting the Islamist party's support base thanks to the scandals, and may even win the election.

"BN still has the upper hand, but Amanah is moving closer," Tang said.

This was making BN sweat as well, he said.

"Of course, they feel (the heat); if not Rosmah's aide Rizal Mansor would not have gone to Rafizi Ramli's press conference."

BN Kuala Kangsar candidate Mastura Mohd Yazid had also distanced herself away from Rosmah, denying Rafizi's allegations that she was handpicked by the prime minister's wife.

The pressure in Perak comes as the opposition begins to draw bigger crowds here compared to in Sungai Besar.

In the second week of campaigning, audience numbers rose from around 200 to 500, with an increasing number of Malay and Indian residents turning up for major ceramahs, especially those featuring Rafizi.

Crossing swords

Meanwhile, Penang Institute fellow Wong Chin Huat (photo) said the whole fiasco with Najib and Rosmah, as well as in-fighting within the party, had caused some unhappiness among Umno members and supporters.

"These discontented voices may choose not to vote or some may vote against BN's candidate, but I don't think a huge number of them will turn against (Najib)," Wong said.

However, he said a low turnout for BN could lead to an opposition victory if outside voters flooded back in to cast their ballots tomorrow.

This might just be the case, with Sin Chew Daily reporting that train tickets from Kuala Lumpur to Kuala Kangsar, and bus tickets from Kuala Kangsar to Singapore, were sold out.

Overall, Tang said the victors in the twin polls would likely be determined by the Chinese voters.

"With Malay votes divided among the three parties, the 31 percent Chinese in Sungai Besar and 24 percent Chinese in Kuala Kangsar will determine the winners," Tang said.

DAP aims to secure 80 percent of Chinese votes, 30 percent of Malay votes, and 60 percent of Indian votes for Amanah in Kuala Kangsar.

Meanwhile, Amanah is less optimistic in Sungai Besar, aiming to get 32 percent of the Malay vote and 68 percent of the Chinese vote, amounting to about 40 percent of the total vote.

The outcome of this by-election could very well determine which parties will be crossing swords again two years from now in the next general election. -Mkini