Is there fire behind the smoke?

No rumour: Dr Shahruddin (left) resigned as deputy minister on Thursday while Tambat announced he had resigned from PKR on Friday.

“I GUESS rumours are more exciting than the truth, ” Venus Williams once said. The tennis star was commenting on the speculation that exploded after her last minute withdrawal – due to an injury – from a semifinal match against her sister Serena in the Indian Wells‘ Masters in 2001.

She could have been commenting on Malaysia’s political scene; Venus’ observation on rumour rings true today in Malaysia as politics heat up in the country.

Rumours are flying thick and fast. Malaysians believe there’s no smoke without fire.

Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, a war is brewing between those in power, the Perikatan Nasional government, and those who want to take it, the Opposition. What separates the two opposing forces is a razor-thin majority.

Within the war is a bitter battle in Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia between sacked chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

To understand why rumours thrive in Malaysia, political analyst Datuk Mazri Muhammad said we must understand the fundamentals of Malaysian politics. He explained that freedom of information has never been our strong point.

“We must look at the personality involved and the context of the rumour. You must learn how to sift through it all – if it has any shred of credibility or no credibility at all. You must be judicious in taking rumours to heart, ” he said.

Lately, the rumours have been hot, according to political analyst Shahbudin Husin, because Perikatan government is not stable. There are efforts to bring it down, he said.

“The government’s majority is questioned. It has not been tested in Parliament, ” said Shahbudin, the author of Anwar PM Ke-8: Janji Serah Kuasa Yang Mesti Ditepati (Anwar The Eighth PM: A Promise To Transfer Power Which Must Be Fulfilled).

On Wednesday, when I met Shahbudin in Kuala Lumpur, the government had 113 MPs and the Opposition 109 MPs. Two MPs separated the two political forces.

I met up with Shahbudin as he is one of the sources of the juicy rumours which have been circulating in the last few weeks.

He is quite an influential blogger. In the leaked audio recording of the heated two-hour Pakatan Harapan presidential council meeting on Feb 23, Muhyiddin said Shahbudin’s blog pushed for the transition of power from Prime Minister Dr Mahathir to PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

“Selepas Pak Wan dan Dr Shahruddin, di percayai tiga lagi akan menyusul letak jawatan” (After Pak Wan and Dr Shahruddin, it is believed that three more will resign), Shahbudin posted on May 29.

He was referring to the strong rumour that Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department and Alor Gajah MP Datuk Seri Mohd Redzuan Md Yusof, and Deputy Works Minister and Sri Gading MP Datuk Dr Shahruddin Md Salleh, would quit the government and support Dr Mahathir on that day.

The sacked Bersatu chairman had occupied his former office in the party headquarters in Petaling Jaya. And rumours were swirling that at least three Bersatu MPs who were with Team Muhyiddin would jump over to Team Mahathir.

If that happened, Team Mahathir would have eight MPs. And the Perikatan government would fall as it would have 110 MPs and the Opposition 112 in the 222-seat Parliament.

However, Redzuan and Dr Shahruddin did not quit. But they did meet Dr Mahathir separately on that day.

Supporters of Perikatan whacked Shahbudin for getting it wrong.

“Of course, people will condemn us as it did not happen. I felt my credibility was affected. But not 100% affected as it is outside our control. We got information which was correct at the time when we were told, but the situation changed, ” said the former journalist.

For Mazri, who has been studying Dr Mahathir as he finds him an interesting figure, the former Prime Minister went to the Bersatu office as an opening move.

“His opening move will be something, but it is not the deadly one. It is just a cover for something else which is brewing. He never makes a move without a subsequent move and another subsequent move. And he will never do the obvious, ” he said when we met in KL on Friday.

On that same day, I asked a Bersatu supreme council member Wan Mohd Shahrir Wan Abd Jalil why the quit rumour escalated.

“The rumour spread maybe because the politicians relayed it to their inner circle who then relayed it to their inner circle, and then there is a leak, (another) leak and (another) leak and social media played up the information, ” he said.

“What’s the latest rumour?” I asked Shahbudin.

“Tomorrow Shahruddin will quit. He will not call for a press conference but send his resignation letter as deputy minister to the Prime Minister. And a few days later, Redzuan will quit, ” he said.

On Thursday, the blogger got it right. Dr Shahruddin resigned as Deputy Minister and Opposition politicians and supporters were in a celebratory mood as if they had already formed a new government.

However, his resignation letter stated that he was still backing the Perikatan government. So was it still government 113 MPs and Opposition 109 MPs? Or government 112 MPs and Opposition 110 MPs?

On Friday, during my chat with Wan Mohd Shahrir, we were waiting to hear whether Redzuan, who had called for a press conference in his house in Kajang, Selangor, would jump. He had said he did not think the minister would do so.

True enough, Redzuan squashed the rumour.

Instead of him jumping, hours later, Lubok Antu MP Tambat Jugah Muyang announced he had resigned from PKR. Tambat said he would be an independent who supported Perikatan at the federal level and Gabungan Parti Sarawak at the state level.

It is now government 114 MPs and Opposition 108 MPs.

I was curious to know what Wan Mohd Shahrir thought about how the government handled the rumour about Bersatu MPs quitting the ruling coalition.

“The government doesn’t really focus fully on these small fires here and there, but they will eventually kill the bigger fire if it occurs, ” he said cryptically.

“How do you grade this govern-ment in terms of its communi-cation plan to handle the quit rumours?” I asked Mazri.

“‘Absent’. I can’t give them a ‘fail’ as they are absent, ” he said.

“A rumours will take on a life of its own if you don’t manage it properly. You’re going to get sucked into the vortex and then spat out, worse off. That’s the challenge in political communication, ” he said.

Shahbudin said rumours need to be killed as quickly as possible: “If not, they will enter people’s mind, and they will influence them, ” he said.

Want to hear the rumour I heard on Friday morning?

Some Amanah, PKR and Warisan MPs will jump. That evening, the PKR rumour became the truth when the Lubok Antu MP quit PKR.As for Amanah and Warisan MPs, well, let me quote a famous Malay proverb used to defend rumours: “Kalau tidak ada angin, masakan pokok bergoyang (If the wind wasn’t blowing, the trees wouldn’t be swaying).” - Star