IRAN ABANDONS HEZBOLLAH AND THE LEBANESE SHIA

 The Israeli bombardment of southern Lebanon has started since Monday. About 350 days after the Shia Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel. Since October 8th 2023, the Hezbollah has fired over 8,000 rockets into Israel (still counting). The Israelis retaliated with counter strikes.

Starting Monday the Israelis ditched 'counter strikes' and have launched all out aerial strikes in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley to neutralise Shia Hezbollah's rockets and missiles. Over 600 people have been killed in southern Lebanon, including over 30 children and 40 women folk. The vast majority of the people killed were Shias, including Hezbollah fighters.

The air strikes were less intensive yesterday (Tuesday) and today Wednesday 25th September. Thousands of Lebanese (again mostly Shias) have left southern Lebanon and headed mainly for Shia suburbs in Beirut.  Thousands are also leaving Lebanon and heading into Syria for protection by the Shia government of Bashar Assad. 

I keep saying Shia because the Sunni, Druze, Christian Maronite, Greek Orthodox etc population of Lebanon are not affected at all or as badly affected. Here is a map of Lebanon by religious sect (they even have such maps for that horrible and very troubled country).

Note the dark blue areas, those are Shia areas. Almost the entire southern Lebanon is dark blue. The other dark blue is the Bekaa Valley - where you can see Baalbek. These are the trouble spots that are suffering the bombings. The Shia people from these parts are now fleeing to Syria and Beirut.

Iran is not doing anything to help the Hezbollah or the Shia people in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. The ayatollahs threats to bomb, burn, blast and destroy Israel  have turned out to be empty threats. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has a well used escape route from Lebanon to Syria and then to Iran.

• And exactly as I predicted a few days ago, there are also absolutely no protests in the larger Sunni world. 
• Recall all those worldwide protests on behalf of Hamas.
• Well no one cares about the Shia. 
• There are no street protests in London. 
• No student protests on university campuses in the US. 
• No protests after Friday prayers (day after tomorrow) at Masjid Kg Baru KL.
  
• Absolutely no protests at all in insanely anti-Shia Pakistan. 
• Even the Sunni, Maronite Christian and Druze Lebanese will not be protesting.
  

The Israelis will likely launch a ground invasion of southern Lebanon next. Any possibility of a ceasefire will become more difficult once the ground invasion begins. This is mainly because the ground invasion will likely be up to the Litani River - a distance of only 18 miles (29 km). The Israeli tanks can cover this distance in less than a day. 

Israel last occupied southern Lebanon from 1985 to 2000  -  which did bring 15 years of peace, calm and quiet in Lebanon and especially in Beirut. 

Israel left southern Lebanon in the year 2000. Six years later in 2006 the Hezbollah attacked Israel which precipitated another round of conflict :

"The conflict was precipitated by the 2006 Hezbollah cross-border raid. On 12 July 2006, Hezbollah fighters fired rockets at Israeli border towns as a diversion for an anti-tank missile attack on two armored Humvees patrolling the Israeli side of the border fence. The ambush left three soldiers dead".

If Israel occupies southern Lebanon again, will they occupy the area for another 15 years? 

After World War 2 the US occupied 'mainland' Japan from 1945 until 1952 - for seven years.

The US occupied Okinawa (Japan) until 1971 - ie 26 years after the end of World War 2.

The Americans occupied Saipan (Japan) from 1944 until today. The US will never return Saipan back to Japan. Saipan is now American territory and its inhabitants are US citizens.

Towards the end of World War 2, the Soviet Union / Russia occupied four Japanese islands located 24 km off Hokkaido. Please see the map.  Russia has not returned these islands to Japan until today.

The Russians have made it clear that they will NOT be returning these islands back to Japan forever. They want to remind the Japanese about Japanese aggression against Russia in the past.

The Russians occupied East Germany from 1945 until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 (44 years).

At the end of World War 2 Germany had to permanently cede the Oder-Niese area to Poland, until today.

In 1704, the British captured the island of Gibraltar from Spain during the War of the Spanish Succession. The British have kept Gibraltar until today.

In 1833 the British took the Falkland Islands (from dont know who). They have kept ituntil today.

 Proton Saga (?) on Falkland Islands? Hooray Dr Mahathir !

 

In 1934 after a brief border war, Saudi Arabia captured the Yemeni "border" provinces of Asir, Najran and Jazan. I dont know what is the status of these three border provinces now.

The moral of the story.  

This appears to be "international law". When two countries go to war, the country that wins the war gets to keep all the territories it captured in perpetuity. Forever.

The country that loses the war cannot go crying to the country that won and say, "We are sorry. We did not mean to go to war against you. Please return our islands and our territories". 

It does not work that way.

• America has kept Saipan. 
• Russia has kept those Hokkaido islands. 
• Britain has kept Gibraltar and the Falklands. 
• Poland has kept the Oder-Niese Line.

The moral of the story is : before you decide to go to war, you must engage your otak first.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.