Battle to avoid the drop still wide open

 No one is safe as relegation dogfight looks set to go to the wire.

Who’s for the drop?

For once, the title race is not the story. Nor is the Manchester United v Liverpool clash beyond their own fan bases.

The current spotlight in the EPL is on the battle to avoid the drop. With four games to play, there are four contenders and only six points covering them.

Why the football world’s attention is focused on the basement is, of course, because of a Big Six club being embroiled in the dogfight.

And it happens to be the one with the fewest points.

Nothing against Spurs, (apart from Arsenal overdosing on what the Germans call schadenfreude), but most fans want them to go down.

We love to see a giant fall as much as we love an underdog. And the idea of a Big Six club being relegated tells us that anything is still possible.

It restores our faith that money, although a very useful thing to have, cannot guarantee safety, let alone success.

If you cock it up badly enough – and Spurs have – no matter how many zillions you throw at it, you can still end up playing Lincoln City, Stevenage or Wrexham next season.

Forty-six games in the league. No European glamour ties. A half-empty “best stadium in Europe” echoing to the cries of visiting fans as home supporters pick and choose.

Matchday income and broadcasting rights melt down to a fraction of what you’ve come to expect.

It all adds up to a chilling blast of harsh reality.

As it stands, Spurs have just 34 points, two behind West Ham on 36, with Forest (39) and Leeds (40) occupying the higher ground in this battlefield.

The 40-point marker was once considered safe, but as nervous Leeds fans will tell you, points in the bag are handy, but in this situation, possession of them is not nine-tenths of the law.

It’s the remaining fixtures that will decide who remains on the EPL gravy train and who falls into the abyss.

Indeed, despite their numerical advantage, there is no counting of chickens among Leeds or Forest fans.

Both have spent years in the wilderness – Forest 23 and Leeds 15 – including spells in the third tier – before clambering back to where they think they belong.

The psychological scars have not completely healed and a return to the huddled masses is a fate too ghastly to contemplate.

The narrative suggests that either Spurs or West Ham is more likely to go down, yet Spurs arguably have the easiest programme of the four.

But perhaps too many people are looking at data and listening to the bookies.

Opta’s supercomputer has Leeds and Forest as rank outsiders for the drop, giving Forest a 1.26% chance of finishing 18th , while Leeds are at 1.2%.

In stark contrast, it gives Spurs a 60.15% chance of going down and West Ham a 37.35% chance.

Opta thinks that Leeds has the easiest run-in, with three of its four games categorised as “easier”.

However, closer analysis reveals that its game away at West Ham on the final day of the season is one of them.

Making a mockery of the prediction is that Opta considers the same game “easier” for the Hammers too!

Leeds fans are praying that it doesn’t come down to the wire, as home advantage would make West Ham favourites.

The Yorkshiremen’s visit to Spurs is also in the “softer” category for both clubs.

Without going into any more depth, it’s safe to say that form, fitness, tactics and managerial nous on the pitch will be the decisive factors. And not, whatever is fed into a computer.

All four won last weekend, which means there’s some positivity in the air.

Forest were on an unbeaten run of eight games before the overnight Europa semi-final with Aston Villa.

Inspired by Morgan Gibbs-White, they might be considered the form team, especially after scoring nine times in their last two matches.

But the distraction of this tournament may count against them. They go to Chelsea on Monday and then play the return leg against Villa on Thursday.

With their brilliant Brazilian centre-back Murillo a doubt for all three games, and his deputy, Jair Cunha, for at least one, they may need to keep hitting the target.

Spurs, who have been the hardest hit EPL club of all, had more injury woes with Xavi Simons out for the season, and Dominik Solanke likely to miss most of it.

Ominously, perhaps, West Ham are the only one of the four to boast a clean bill of health.

The so-called six-pointers between the clubs could tilt the balance. Leeds has to go to Spurs as well as Palace.

With so much riding on them, such games could turn the formbook upside down.

Forest could pull off a unique double which would be entirely in keeping with their rollercoaster season: going down and qualifying for the Champions League!

It’s unlikely as Villa are favourites to win the Europa League, but Forest has work to do to avoid the drop.
All in all, West Ham and Spurs could close the gap on the other two. But the decider could well be the Hammers at home to Leeds on the fateful final day.

By then Leeds will have visited Spurs. Forest, meanwhile, face their bogey team, Bournemouth on the final day.

It’s why you can’t take your eyes off the relegation battle. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.