Sabah CM’s post: The plot continues

It’s that silly season again when any flare-up among the ruling Sabah Barisan Nasional (BN) parties is seen as a plot to unseat Chief Minister Musa Aman. In the latest twist, a statement from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) vowing not to work with the CM was enough to set tongues wagging.

This is similar to the Cold War years when any critics of the establishment in the so-called democratic countries, east and west alike, were shouted down as “communists”. The fact that there wasn’t even a shred of evidence to support such accusations – read McCarthyism in the US for one – was seen as beside the point.

In the current political scenario in Sabah, that doesn’t mean there are no plotters against the present state government. The consensus of opinion among political observers in the state suggests that the plots continue unabated within and without Sabah Umno for a variety of reasons.

Within the LDP itself, it cannot be denied that many would like to see the back of Musa as soon as possible but not because they are in cahoots with any plotters in Sabah Umno.

If there is any plotting against the state administration, clearly it’s not going to work.

The fate of Musa lies solely in the hands of Umno president and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. If Najib tells Musa tomorrow to go, he will have to go but it’s unlikely to happen soon.

Najib is seen as indecisive, going in one direction one minute and then suddenly pulling back and moving in another direction. However, he doesn’t move in the opposite direction to open himself to charges of flip-flopping. He goes off more at a tangent.

It’s conceded among even the most ardent apologists and sycophants that the writing is on the wall in Sabah. Najib will have to decide within the next two years, at the most, whether Musa steps down or continues to lead the state coalition for the 2013 polls.

By that time, Musa would have been in office far longer than the five-year limit that most coalition leaders want to place on the chief ministership as a check-and-balance measure. Five years is seen as an improved take on the all too brief two-year rotation of the CM’s post among BN component parties. It was introduced in 1994 and came to an end with the appointment of Musa, a Pathan-Dusun, in early 2003. The two-year rotation gave large communities – KadazanDusunMurut, Bajau, Suluk and Chinese – a shot at the chief ministership.

Najib is likely to opt for the former option. He’s expected to appoint a new chief minister from among four possible Sabah Umno candidates, namely Masidi Manjun, Rahim Ismail, Hajiji Noor and Nasir Sakaran. The latter two, Bajau and Suluk, are unlikely to make the grade as members of fairly large communities. The others in the coalition would not stand for it.

No comeback

It’s for the same reason that there’s no comeback for former chief minister Salleh Keruak, a Bajau.

No chief minister in the history of Sabah, except Donald Stephens but as a Kadazan Muslim the second time, has ever made a comeback.

Again, Deputy Chief Minister Joseph Pairin Kitingan, a Dusun, is unlikely to make a comeback as an interim chief minister in the run-up to 2013, as speculated. Besides, having secured the chief minister’s post, Sabah Umno is unlikely to let it go even for a moment.

Shafie Apdal, a Suluk and Nasir’s cousin, is a federal minister with no state seat. He can be ruled out for the same reasons as the latter if the Umno president continues to appoint the Sabah Umno chief. In any case, if the next general election is in 2013 and the chief ministership changes hands in 2012, Shafie can be discounted.

So, the choice would have to come down to between Masidi, a Dusun Muslim, and Rahim, a Barunai (Brunei Malay). Both are members of tiny communities who would have an easier time doing a balancing act among the many ethnic and religious groups in Sabah.

This scenario of the chief minister’s post being a dance among the minorities is not likely to materialise if the Sabah chapter of Umno gets to elect its own leader. They have in fact been promised this even before the Peninsular Malaysia-based party entered the state. At present, leaders of the state chapters of Umno are appointed by the president. Sabah Umno was to have been an exception.

Whoever becomes chief minister from Sabah Umno would have to reckon with the other component parties in the state BN.

Among BN component parties, LDP and earlier the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) being the tip of the proverbial iceberg, the issue is one of relevance within the current structure of the ruling coalition. This has left the state administration open to charges of abuse of power and exercising absolute power.

When Sabah Umno allocated 32 of the 60 state seats at stake for itself at the last general election in 2008, the thin line was crossed. It tipped the balance of power dangerously in favour of the so-called backbone of the ruling state coalition at the expense of the other component parties. No matter how the other component parties shared the remaining 28 state seats, they were effectively reduced to irrelevance. The smaller the party, the greater the irrelevance.

If the woes of BN component parties are not addressed, and addressed well before the next general election, Sabah Umno will find itself in the political wilderness like its predecessor United Sabah National Organisation.

courtesy of FMT