Warning - Our food grain production falling

By Malaysian

It is just a matter of time before we are hit by a food crisis, due to grain production falling below consumption levels, falling grain trade volumes, as well as the concomitant price increases, which we are beginning to notice.

One third of our wage earners have an income near the poverty line. They will not sit idly by and watch their children starve.

This can make all the arguments about racism, unity, corruption, or whatever topic is the flavour of the week irrelevant. The 2007/2008 food price crisis saw at least 25 incidences of unrest and government action globally. After studying the data, it is apparent that unless we act now, we will join the long list of nations that will experience an extended period of unrest and instability, which will be pretty damn stupid considering that this is Malaysia, where the land is fertile with plenty of rainfall.

Agriculture and Food Security: Developments In Malaysia

By T. Indrani, ERA Consumer Malaysia (Nov 2000)

Food security ensures the independence and sovereignty of a nation. History has proved time and again that food is vital to national security. Food crisis sets in when it is not available, or accessible, in sufficient quantities for the local population. Nations have gone to war over food, and will continue to do so, if they are not able to produce enough or buy food for their people.

Malaysia is a net food importing country, despite once having produced almost enough food for the local population. It is not that there is no land to produce food: it is just that the priorities are different.

INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL - GRAIN MARKET REPORT (29 July 2010)

GRAINS* OUTLOOK FOR 2010/11

Prospects for the next grains crop have been significantly affected by the past month's adverse conditions in parts of the Black Sea region, the EU and Canada. Total wheat and coarse grains production is now forecast 23m. tons lower than before, at 1,753m., down from the previous year's near-record 1,782m. The impact has been mainly on northern hemisphere wheat and barley crops, lowered by 13m. and 7m. tons, respectively, with little change in the maize figure. The reduced crop prospects have prompted a downward revision in the feed use forecast, with global consumption now projected to rise by only 0.8%, to 1,774m. tons; increases in industrial and food use will outweigh a reduction in feed use. With the global crop forecast cut by more than consumption, world carry over stocks of grain in 2010/11 are placed 18m. tons lower than before, at 369m.

RICE SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2009/10

Global rice output in 2009/10 is estimated to have declined by 1%, to 441m. tons following the heavy fall in output in India. Although rice consumption is expected to expand by 0.7%, world carry over stocks are forecast to be show little change; those in the five leading rice exporters are expected to fall slightly, to 25.3m. (26.3m.). Due to a slower than expected pace of shipments to sub-Saharan Africa, the forecast of world trade in calendar 2010 is cut slightly from last month. However, at 29.6m. tons, it would still be 2% higher than in 2009, underpinned by stronger import demand from Far East Asia, notably the Philippines.

MALAYSIA GRAIN AND FEED ANNUAL - USDA (19 February 2010)

In 2010, rice imports are expected to drop to one million ton as the Rice Authority works down on stocks. Vietnam was the biggest rice supplier to Malaysia in 2009.

The anticipated 3-4 percent growth in the Malaysian economy in 2010 should sustain increased demand for wheat-based products. Pork consumption is expected to outpace supply as land use for pig rearing becomes more controversial. As domestic rice output is expected to show a drop with the impending El Nino weather condition, self-sufficiency in rice may drop to 60-65 percent.

ASIA SENTINEL - IS ANOTHER FOOD CRISIS COMING , J Berthelsen (12 August 2010)

Over the past month, global grain exports have been hit by two calamities that have been exacerbated by worries over global warming, particularly affecting the world's rice crop. For the better part of a decade, the world's food scientists have been warning against what they have called an Event - a confluence of natural calamities that drive the price of staples - particularly grains - past the point where hundreds of millions of poor will no longer be able to eat.

The question isn't whether there are enough grains but whether governments will panic again as they did during the 2007-2008 rice crisis. Governments across the planet from Vietnam to Egypt banned exports, driving rice prices from US$300 per metric ton to more than US$1,100 and causing shortages and food riots in several countries and resulting in the fall of the Haitian government. Russia has ordered an export ban until the end of the year and Ukraine is said to be considering one as well.

Review Article - Malaysia's strategic food security approach, Tey Y.S.

Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia (2010)

Actions taken in response to the food crisis in the selected Asian countries have worked out well and produced promising outcomes from a combination of availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability aspects in food security. In greater discussion, Malaysia weighted more on availability aspect in food security by introducing more short- and long-term policy measures for boosting paddy and rice production, particularly in Sabah and Sarawak. However, much of the unhappiness and disequilibrium in the local paddy and rice market were created due to irrational extensive intervention of the Miller Subsidy and Beras Nasional programmes in the nation. Many of the policy measures target at area expansion and productivity but it was suggested that the dominant path to achieve the targeted SSL is through R&D at specialized and committed paddy and rice research centre. Alternatively, the country may need to re-evaluate its long-served self-sufficiency approach. (Poor English, but basically says we need to do better than the last time a couple of years ago)

MALAYSIAN-GERMAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE & INDUSTRY, MARKET WATCH 2009 - THE FOOD INDUSTRY

The recent rapid increase in international food prices posed serious concerns around the world. According to the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), the food price index climbed 44% in the first half of 2008, relative to the corresponding figure last year. In June 2008, the price index for cereals escalated 274%, oil and fats 292%, sugar 156%, meat 135%, as well as dairy 263%. The raising prices, which translate into higher food bills, widened the trade deficit, placing a heavy burden on developing countries. The World Bank estimates that the doubling of food prices over the last three years not only could push 100 million people deeper into poverty but also can triggered unrest in some developing countries, creating social and political instability.

The upward pressure on food prices will likely persist over the next years and the era of cheap food prices and sanguinity about food security may be over. Food price inflation will erode purchasing power, increasing the possibility of food deprivation and malnutrition. Therefore, it is necessary for the global community, national governments and other stakeholders to take remedial measures to reduce food prices as well as to mitigate the negative effects of rising food prices. Over the long run, better infrastructure as well as more research and investments should be channelled into the agriculture sector to increase food production.

I could keep adding excerpts all night, all with the same message. Become self sufficient or prepare for massive trouble. The competition for food will be as intense between nations as it will be between individuals.

The urban poor, the displaced multitudes, the millions of legal and illegal immigrants, the homeless, the destitute, the hundreds of thousands of rural folks tending cash crops (palm oil,rubber) basically anyone that falls in the lower rungs of society will arrive at a point where they will say enough is enough.

WHAT CAN YOU DO?

Hoarding will not be an option, it will just hasten the flash point. Hoarders are usually the first targets, be they innocent retailers or selfish individuals.

Write to your ADUNs and MPs, and ask them to study the food situation and guarantee that your area will be self sufficient; and when they can't, ask them what they are planning to do about it. There is little hope in central policies in this matter, local governments will have to be forced to allow fallow land to be worked while there is still a time buffer.

If you can't tell one end of the cangkul from the other, or even if you can, try the Fukuoka farming method. Three days of work to support an individual's calorie needs for a year. It does not get any easier than that. Fukuoka has also consistently produced the highest yields-per-acre of rice in Japan, and quite possibly the highest yields in the world, with continuous cultivation (no fallow periods) and no fertilizers, natural or artificial. There is no tilling of soil, minimal weeding, minimal pest control, no irrigation, and not much else being done either (Nathan Lewis).

Every calorie that we become self sufficient in is a calorie that becomes available to another.

Vegetarianism, or better still, veganism, even for one day a week, will reduce the feed demand for livestock, releasing the grains for human consumption down the road.

Do not put much faith in the 45 day rice stockpile the government has planned. 45 days is just not long enough for us to grow alternatives for our needs. Nature usually takes a little longer to give us her yields. But 45 days will be enough for the wealthy to make good their escape before the shit really hits the fan.

I personally have little faith in politicians or bureaucrats taking the food security question seriously. If the upper two thirds of Malaysian society choose to do the same, expecting that someone will come along and wave a magic wand to make the problem disappear, then all I can say is that you lot deserve each other.

Warning

"Remember this," Tyler said. "The people you're trying to step on, we're everyone you depend on. We're the people who do your laundry and cook your food and serve your dinner. We make your bed. We guard you while you're asleep. We drive the ambulances. We direct your call. We are cooks and taxi drivers and we know everything about you. We process your insurance claims and credit card charges. We control every part of your life. "We are the middle children of history, raised by television to believe that someday we'll be millionaires and movie stars and rock stars, but we won't. And we're just learning this fact," Tyler said. "So don't fuck with us."

CHUCK PALAHNIUK.