If the BN wins the two by-elections, the Sarawak state election might be held together with the general election in March next year. The Batu Sapi by-election in Sabah is going to serve as a vane for the Sarawak state election. If the Pakatan Rakyat fails to threaten the BN, it will be difficult for it to take over Sarawak.
By LIM SUE GOAN, Sinchew
Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE
The current hot political scenario has been brewing for more than two and a half years, and the last two months have been a real critical time for the component parties of both the Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat, with intense internal struggles threatening to cause massive damage to their image, and even their existence.
Many important programmes have been scheduled for October and November, and both coalitions now have to face two unexpected by-elections.
The MCA has basically been stabilised after its fresh poll on 28 March 2010 and it has started to actively restore the people's confidence. However, Gerakan has fallen into a troubled period. Even though Penang Gerakan chairman Datuk Dr Teng Hock Nam has survived the no-confidence vote against him at an extraordinary general meeting in Penang on Sunday 10 October 2010, the leadership crisis remains unresolved.
Umno is going to hold its annual general meeting from 19 to 23 October, and it is expected that a loyalty pledge will be taken to endorse Umno president and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's reform plans, to prepare for the next general election.
After the Malay rights group Perkasa and former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad have stirred up several racial issues, Najib's 1Malaysia concept has been in a quandary. Also, his New Economic Model (NEM) is facing some obstacles. Hence, it is important for Najib to get the full support of his party. He wants to lead a united Umno, instead of a factional party.
The next will be the BN convention on 28 November. The main agenda of the convention, which has been postponed for several times, is to amend the constitution, so that the BN can accept direct members to strengthen the power of the coalition.
The convention is expected to boost the morale within the coalition and bring desirable effects if it works with other reform plans.
Meanwhile, component parties of the Pakatan Rakyat are having their party elections and the PKR is going to have a new leadership. Datuk Zaid Ibrahim is not steady enough to do great things as he has repeatedly changed his stand. Therefore, Azmin Ali is expected to win the party deputy president post while Nurul Izzah Anwar is expected to become a new generation leader.
PKR adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim must introduce new strategies during the PKR annual general assembly from 26 to 28 November to strengthen the party organisation and discipline. Otherwise, internal faction will weaken the party's strength, especially when Anwar might face imprisonment for sodomy.
The DAP is going to hold its party state elections in November. The surfaced factional problem is a difficult task and thus, the central leadership has been committed to resolving the problems in Perak. We can see that the Perak DAP deputy chairman M. Kulasegaran's attitude has turned softer and the two factions have started to prioritize the party interests and future.
The Galas and Batu Sapi by-elections are going to serve as support rate indicators for the BN and the Pakatan Rakyat. Particularly, a third of voters in Galas are non-Malays while Batu Sapi has about 40% of non-Muslim voters.
If the BN wins the two by-elections, the Sarawak state election might be held together with the general election in March next year. The Batu Sapi by-election in Sabah is going to serve as a vane for the Sarawak state election. If the Pakatan Rakyat fails to threaten the BN, it will be difficult for it to take over Sarawak.
In addition, the government has started to implement its reform plans, such as the Education Ministry has abolished the policy of teaching Science and Mathematics in English and decided to change the Penilaian Menengah rendah (PMR) examination for Form Three students to a school-based assessment starting 2016. Also, Najib is going to table the 2011 Budget on 15 October and the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) on 26 October.
The BN has been diligent in work over the past year while the Pakatan Rakyat seems to have been overshadowed. If the Pakatan Rakyat still does not pull itself together and introduce new reform plans, swing votes might go to the BN and its dream of taking over Putrajaya will fade farther and farther away.
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