There is, however, a by-election to be won before any general election can be called. This is at Galas in Kelantan, due to be held on Nov 4.
This traditional Umno seat was lost to the state-governing Islamist party, PAS, in 2008. Should Umno regain it from PAS, then Mr Najib will be strongly encouraged to call an early general election.
Malaysia's gross domestic product is expected to grow by 7 per cent this year, up from minus-1.7 per cent last year, and will ease only slightly next year to about 5 to 6 per cent. Inflation will remain low, the ringgit is showing strength and stability, and international reserves remain enviably large.
Citing such heartening news, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak presented the federal budget for 2011 to Parliament last Friday. He credited the turnabout to "proactive measures" undertaken by his government, most specifically the spending of RM67 billion ($28 billion) in two economic stimulus packages.
Indeed, the news coming from the economic sector has not been bad. GDP growth for the first six months of the year was at 9.5 per cent and exports increased by 22 per cent between January and August.
Given the political situation, however, the budget will be scanned by all concerned for signs that a general election will be called soon. Mr Najib is under pressure not only from a highly-active opposition but also from Malay groups who fear that he will think it necessary to end affirmative action favouring them.
The recent postponement of the goods and services tax policy does suggest very strongly that elections might be on the way.
Indeed, judging from his choice of words, one would understand why Malay leaders like Ibrahim Ali or former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad are worried.
In his budget speech, Mr Najib stated: "To attain developed nation status, we cannot remain complacent. We must change our mindset. Business is not as usual. Success demands drastic changes, not incremental. It requires a quantum leap. The choice before us is clear. Change is not an option but an imperative. We must change or risk being left behind."
It is not without reason that the speech was titled "Transforming Towards a Developed and High-Income Nation".
By employing the concept of "transformation" and calling for "holistic" change, Mr Najib is moving the fight to the opposition's turf. It was, after all, fervent calls for "change" that won the opposition control of key states in the last elections. How far he will actually go beyond the mere lip-service adoption of such terms remains an open question.
By-election barometers
There is, however, a by-election to be won before any general election can be called. This is at Galas in Kelantan, due to be held on Nov 4.
This traditional Umno seat was lost to the state-governing Islamist party, PAS, in 2008. Should Umno regain it from PAS, then Mr Najib will be strongly encouraged to call an early general election.
Other good economic news include an expected rise in per capita income of 6.1 per cent and a low unemployment rate of 3.5 per cent. Be that as it may, the federal government has seldom had to tread as cautiously as it has to do now.
Economists expect the final inflation figure to reach 2 per cent for this year and 2.8 per cent for next year.
There is fear that these will rise with the successive cutting of subsidies planned by the government.
Greatest shock the 100-storey Warisan Merdeka
Of the "Four Key Strategies" in the 2011 budget, "Reinvigorating Private Investment" and "Intensifying Human Capital Development" are of macro-economic interest. The other two - "Enhancing the Quality of Life of the Rakyat" and "Strengthening Public Service Delivery" - seem aimed at winning votes.
The greatest shock is the proposed RM5-billion Warisan Merdeka, which will be Malaysia's tallest building. How the administration arrived at the conclusion that the construction of this 100-storey structure will provide the best Keynesian effects will be a key point of discussion, at least until it is ready in 2020.
What may be considered populist measures are the moderate sums earmarked for raising the quality of life of senior citizens, young children, the disabled and the homeless; stimulating home ownership among the poor; and building infrastructure in rural areas, especially in the electorally critical states of Sabah and Sarawak.
Where civil servants are concerned, benefits are being given to help with schooling costs, funeral arrangements and housing loans.
What seems most significant is the abolition of Competency Level Assessment for civil servants, to be replaced in June next year with a more "refined" system of appraisal.
But perhaps what will decide the Prime Minister's mind for him where snap elections are concerned, is the Umno general assembly due to be held later this week. Should support for his leadership be solid, and should his measures at reforming the party be sufficiently well received, then he will certainly be encouraged to go for broke as early as possible. - Today
(The writer is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. His latest book on Malaysia is Between Umno and a Hard Place: The Najib Razak Era Begins (Refsa & Iseas).
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