Analysts: Ku Li a big factor in Galas, Pakatan resources fizzling

KUALA LUMPUR — The latest by-elections results suggest that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) has lost its Election 2008 momentum, while Barisan Nasional’s (BN) Umno seems to be regaining its winning touch, analysts say.

But they cautioned that BN’s strong win in the Galas state seat, situated within PAS-controlled Kelantan, as well as Sabah’s Batu Sapi parliamentary seat cannot be taken as a signal that the momentum of voter support has returned to the ruling coalition, as the two seats are “unique and isolated” cases.

They are also divided as to whether Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak will call for snap polls by the first half of next year, amid widespread speculation that the double win will be reason enough to dissolve Parliament.

“From the results of the by-elections and the days leading up to the polling day, we see that Pakatan Rakyat has lost its momentum, their focus, and are distracted instead by internal issues that have affected the opposition’s focus and resolve to win these by-elections.

“I think the long string of by-elections has sapped PR of their financial resources which may have been a factor in BN’s wins. The peak of Pakatan’s dynamism as seen during the past Bukit Gantang by-election is no longer there,” said Ibrahim Suffian.

PR won four states and 82 federal seats in Election 2008, denying BN its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority. It also won eight out of the 13 by-elections thus far since the March 2008 general election.

Ibrahim, who is Merdeka Center director, said the results of the Galas by-election showed BN’s effective “low-key” campaigning method which indicated rural Malay support in Kelantan slowly returning to the federal coalition.

“If you look at Galas, you can see that Malay voters who were previously voting for Pakatan and were against BN are slowly returning back to BN’s fold. It also shows that Umno was more focused in the by-election, having a greater resolve and have learnt from their past experiences. Malay voters over there are slowly returning to BN,” Ibrahim told The Malaysian Insider.

Asked whether he thought PKR had made any inroads in Sabah, after coming in second after BN in Batu Sapi and having gathered more votes than local state party SAPP, Ibrahim claimed that the opposition still had “a long way to go” before it could actually make its presence felt in east Malaysia.

“Despite all the politics and talk of dissatisfaction towards BN, PKR as well as Pakatan still have a long way to go. At the end of the day, development policies are still relevant. And this is where there is a continued assurance that BN is still strong in Sabah, provided they can address all the development issues raised by Sabahans,” said the pollster.

USM political scientist Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said the election strategy adopted by PAS during the Galas polls contributed to a renewed shift towards Umno and BN.

“PAS was overconfident, they believed that traditional voters would support them. This didn’t work out well in Galas. In Galas too, we could see a change in BN’s approach, where they adopted a low-key campaign approach. I think Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah played a major part in BN’s campaign strategy shift, and it worked out well for the federal coalition,” Sivamurugan told The Malaysian Insider.

The academic however claimed that BN’s two wins did not mean that it would be able to replicate such results if snap polls were to be called in the near future.

“Alhough BN won big this time, it does not mean that they can replicate such results on a national level. I do not think that this can be used as an indicator for snap polls. Galas and Batu Sapi were won because of more localised issues, like in Batu Sapi the BN candidate’s late husband, who was the MP was a well-liked man.

“I do not think that snap elections will be called anytime soon. First of all, Umno and BN would have to replicate their campaign strategy in Galas. Do they have leaders like Ku Li in other areas, constituencies?” asked Sivamurugan.

In Galas, BN’s Abdul Aziz Yusoff obtained 5,324 votes while PAS’s Dr Zulkefli Mohamed received 4,134 votes. The margin of victory was 1,190 votes.

And in Batu Sapi, Election Commission results showed that BN’s Datin Linda Tsen Thau Lin obtained 9,773 votes to win the seat by a majority of 6,359 votes. Her PKR opponent Ansari Abdullah obtained 3,414 while SAPP’s Datuk Yong Teck Lee received only 2,031 votes.

Another political analyst however insisted that Najib would call for snap polls “as soon as possible.”

“I think BN leaders are certainly going to be emboldened and some will want to call for a general election as soon as possible,” said Dr Lim Teck Ghee.


Lim told The Malaysian Insider that the two by-elections should be a “wake-up call for PR” to stop being complacent and “buck up while there’s still time.”

“The victories show that Pakatan Rakyat still has some way to go in winning over the rural electorate. At the same time, they are going to take heart from the fact that the BN victories cannot be easily replicated all over the country and there is still a sizable rural anti-government sentiment that is up for grabs.

“The question is whether they can get their act together in terms of stitching a cohesive and formidable electoral machine the way the BN has, and whether they can pull in the smaller parties. Avoiding three corner fights is going to be critical to PR’s hopes of taking over Putrajaya and they cannot leave this negotiation to the last minute,” said Lim.

DAP national publicity secretary Tony Pua said BN’s victories showed that PR can never really take over Putrajaya unless it obtained the majority of east Malaysian votes.

“Pakatan has a lot more work to do in east Malaysia. Without the support of east Malaysia, we cannot even hope of taking over the federal government,” Pua told The Malaysian Insider. - Malaysian Insider