5 things that could happen if BN loses the next general election

The winds of change are sweeping across the nation and Malaysians may very soon be witnessing a changing of the political guard on a scale never before imagined since the political tsunami of 2008. Barely 48 hours after the Barisan Nasional was brought to its knees in March 8 poll, there was talk of "lessons being learnt" and the need for the coalition "to improve" on its dismal performance.

No less than the then prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi vowed that BN would "learn its lesson" and "improve" after the fall of four states to Pakatan Rakyat which made a stunning political comeback on the back of frustration and bitterness amongst the electorate. Those remarks by Abdullah proved to have been made in haste and have, over the years, proven hollow as the people awaited a new dawn that has proven false yet again.

Once again the political pendulum appears to be swinging the way of Pakatan Rakyat as seen by widespread disillusionment and disenchantment by the people with policies that have not kept pace with their aspirations. All indications now point to history repeating itself, perhaps even on a more resounding scale, as the BN coalition appears to be on the verge of being swept out of Putrajaya. What then would be scenario if, for the first time in the history of this country, the BN loses the 13th general election which must be held by 2013?

Losing the mandate for good?

Political analysts fear the BN will never relinquish its hold on power as, according to a veteran politician, "the coalition has too much to lose" and would go to any extent to remain at the helm. A political scientist even goes so far as to say that the spectre of imposition of emergency rule, suspension of civil liberties and a crackdown on the media ala Ops Lalang 2 cannot be entirely ruled out. Already there is concern within Pakatan Rakyat that BN may hang onto Putrajaya through foul means and brute force even if it loses the next general election although some BN politicians have dismissed these claims as unfounded.

This despite Prime Minister Najib Razak's proposal to repeal the Internal Security Act and two Emergency laws over the weekend. This is because he has said new replacement laws will kick in few people doubt these laws will adequately protect Umno's stranglehold on the nation. Such negative perceptions of Najib and his party underscore the lack of public confidence in them and strengthens the growing view that GE-13 is Pakatan's to lose.

A senior Pakatan Rakyat component party official says any transition of power could be turbulent particularly since political parties on both sides of the divide would be in "uncharted waters". The electoral process has already come under much scrutiny and whatever gains or losses on either side will likely be hotly disputed. He says the country may then be witness to "people power" to help restore the democratic mandate to those whom they perceive to be the rightful winners of the general election. "However, these can only happen if the people are empowered and have the means to ensure the survival of democracy. That is a big if particularly when one considers whats at stake and how long the BN has been at the helm and how it has kept its grip on political survival."

A political researcher paints another scenario if the next general election leads to some states with slim majorities in the breakdown of power. She says there could be "re-runs" of the political controversy in Perak with crossovers and party hopping among politicians eager to jump ship for position, money and power. "What the people have seen in Perak with the Pakatan being robbed of their legitimate right to power could very well play out in some states. It may very well be a forerunner of things to come bearing in mind the political temperature and how things heat up."

The people may well see a whole new round of "money politics" with politicians, including Independents, crossing over to tilt the balance of power in states where majorities are slim. "They'll just bring out the cash and buy up seats to get their majority. There will be no scruples so long as the price is right, The people will see frogs (defectors) all over the place," she adds.

A grudging opposition

Another possible scenario is that Umno and BN components may decide to be a reluctant and grudging opposition as they lick their wounds and bide their time to usurp power if not through the normal channels than perhaps by some back door approach. This would, of course, entail wholesale changes in Umno and BN party line-ups with old guards making way for young Turks or fresh blood to reinvigorate the parties.

As one BN party veteran puts it: "There will be a demand for complete transformation not only in Umno's hierarchy but for all the other BN component parties. The shake-ups and reshuffles will be inevitable as the grassroots will demand answers and be eager to see some old faces and perhaps even some young ones make way."

A political observer, however, says the scenario of a BN in opposition mode may not curry favour with other BN component parties and may well result in implosions within parties or the formation of break away factions eager to either form new political entities or perhaps seek to "find some common ground with their erstwhile Pakatan foes".

He points out that the MCA leaders, already having strained ties with Umno and being under constant pressure from within the party to go its own way, would be caught in a dilemma over their perceived role in the new political reality post GE-13. However, PKR vice president and former Health minister Chua Jui Meng, who has experienced life on bioth sides of the fence, says being in the opposition is not all gloom and doom. BN leaders may not think so, but it could well be the precise medicine the coalition needs to institute much-needed reforms within their parties and seek a comeback much like the Kuomintang party (KMT) in Taiwan.

"They could do some soul searching, get rid of the communal politics baggage, institute much-needed political reforms within their own parties and try and appease their members to not abandon ship just yet," Jui Meng told Malaysia Chronicle.

"In Taiwan, this was exactly what happened to the KMT. Chen Shui Bian's Democratic Progressive Party came to power after KMT ruled Taiwan for more than 5 decades. But Chen himself turned corrupt and after two GEs, he was ousted and KMT is now back in power. But mind you, this was only after the KMT regained the people's confidence by admitting it was wrong and took action to show it was sincere."

The inevitable witch hunt

Umno and BN may never be the same coalition post GE13 as there would tremendous pressure on the respective parties for radical changes. For example, the MCA will have to reconsider its role and relationship with Umno and other component parties as the parties conduct post-mortems and seek answers to where they failed to deliver. An MCA party insider says the changes may well prove to be a blessing in disguise as it would enable the party to see itself in the mirrow and force it to institute the changes it so badly needs.

"There will be massive ruptures in ties between parties as recriminations fly fast and furious. After all the dust has settled, we may see new entities and perhaps even some break away factions forming new off-shoots," said the insider.

"I think MCA may very well decide to go it alone in the wake of the political tsunami. And what's worse from the Umno perspective is that it could well draw other BN component parties as well. That, of course, would be a worst case scenario for BN."

The fissures may prove so deep that the once grand coalition may be hardpressed to re-enact itself into a cohesive single-minded entity that it aspires to project itself as. There could be some mosquito parties being formed from the implosion of the bigger parties in the BN, all of which would deal a blow to the people's aspirations for an end to communal politics.

Another MCA veteran, however, feels that it is the MCA that could most benefit from the new-found political status quo. "It has the resources and means to resurrect itself and make fresh inroads to win over the community and with the right appeal it can even win over the other communities during the transition. If it succeeds in its makeover,it would pose a real challenge in the next polls."

So what of Umno? Where would it stand with the new political scheme post G-13? A DAP party veteran says Umno would end up the big losers after GE-13. "They had their chance in the 12th general election but failed to see the writing on the wall. Their perceived link to cronyism, corruption and money politics has proven to be their undoing and this perception will be difficult to erase."

Indeed, perhaps more than the other BN parties, the recriminations and blame game will take a heavy toll on Umno and its top leadership. Its continued refusal to distance itself from racist politicking and groups such as Perkasa has cost it dearly, and unless there are wholesale changes, Umno will find the going tough.

New alliances

A Pakatan triumph at the next polls may well force Umno and BN to reassess their relationships and perhaps re-strategise to form new alliances. These may not necessarily work for the best of the other BN component parties. As a PAS veteran sees it, Umno may be under pressure to go back to its roots and discard any notion of forming alliances with other BN component parties.

"They may decide to strengthen their appeal to the grassroots and hope in the process to bury whatever divisions within their ranks. They could, by doing so, even woo those from Perkasa to join their fold at the expense of MCA, MIC and the other parties. There is already a faction within Umno that is eager to see Umno fight solely for Malay rights and would like to see ties and linkages with Perkasa strengthened," said the PAS veteran.

Political observers say that scenario would entail a permanent MCA exit from the BN fold with all the attendant ramifications. As an ex-MCA leader put it: "It is the worst case scenario for MCA. They would quit the coalition in a huff and, quite frankly, there would be no turning back for the MCA leaders."

Not surprisingly, any MCA move to quit the BN would spur other component parties to at the very least consider a similar move and that would probably signal the beginning of the end for BN as a worthwhile coalition. There are other quarters who feel any political setback for Umno at the GE-13 may see the party attempt to resurrect ties with PAS with new-found urgency to ensure its political survival.

"Umno leaders will be going with bowls begging as PAS would be calling the shots. But Umno leaders will have little choice but to attempt to forge some middle ground if the party is to survive the next elections," said an Umno watcher.

A unity government?

Observers have not ruled out the possibility that in Umno and BN's unholy haste to retain power attempts to clinch some power-sharing pacts may be in the offing.

This is one possible scenario given the attempts in the past by Umno to come to some kind of rapport with Pas. Although Umno leaders would balk at any "pact" with PKR, the political tsunami and its shuddering effects would force the most recalcitrant of political foes to initiate some form of compromise.

"A unity government is entirely feasible if BN and Pakatan find themselves having to share the spoils. But given the deep enmity and distrust all round, it would be at best a temporary truce among practical-minded foes," says a BN party insider.

Indeed Umno leaders, having realised how much support the party had lost among the grassroots, had put out feelers a long time ago to PAS leaders to come to some form of compromise. However, deep divisions and dispute over the sharing of oil royalty in Terengganu put paid to those plans at rapproachment.

Such a move, however, would cause consternation among MCA, MIC and other BN component parties which would be worried over the "compromises" being made by Umno and Pas and the inevitable concern over the Islamic state issue.

Conclusion

Analysts believe that even in a best case scenario, the BN would be hard pressed to win by a comfortable margin in the next election. Given the fluid political situation and with polls showing the prime minister's popularity declining by the week, Umno and BN face an uphill task in winning over the rakyat or populace.

Najib's 1Malaysia slogan and transformation programme appears to have come unstuck with the bleak global economic outlook putting a squeeze to his plans. The recent 'Malaya-not-a-colony' fiasco has also made people wonder if Umno and BN have got it all wrong.

Najib's waning popularity has caused concern and BN leaders are worried they may not survive the next tsunami. With the elections looming large, it is not impossible for the silent majority to surprise pundits by giving Pakatan their votes.

Disheartened Malaysians probably know in their hearts that BN, and Umno in particular, will never change and that the only way to force that change is through the ballot box. To these Malaysians, the winds of change sweeping the land will inevitably bring a new political order, a refreshing change of democracy and the social justice they have long craved for.

- Malaysia Chronicle