A high stakes shadow play involving several formidable factions in Umno has emerged as the political temperature heats up in the run-up to the country’s next general election, widely expected within the next six months, and then the party's own internal election due next year.
All signs point to an imminent shake-up in Umno as things don’t seem to be going according to the game plan envisaged by the party leaders. There is already mounting pressure from the grassroots and certain leaders are subtly clamouring for a change to more decisive leadership.
With Prime Minister Najib Razak and his deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, clearly not on the same page, the stage appears set for a change of script and, more pertinently, even a change of the cast.
There is intense speculation, say Umno insiders, that at least three factions have emerged of late, ready to make their move should Najib falter on the home stretch ahead of the 13th general election or if there is pressure for a change of leadership style well before the next polls.
“One faction is aligned to former prime minister Abdullah and his son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin, another is the old guard comprising former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his son Mukhriz while the third faction is headed by Muhyiddin and his clique," says a party veteran.
“All three have so far kept their cards close to the chest while Najib has gone about his task to revamp and prepare the party for the polls. Now with the prime minister’s popularity taking a hit, they might be inclined to move."
Waiting in the wings
There are no shortage of “actors” waiting in the wings to take over the party mantle. Speculation is rife that Abdullah and his son-in-law Khairy are eyeing developments in the party as they bide their time.
The duo, particularly Khairy, who is Umno Youth chief has so far kept a low profile. He is out of favour with the current administration and is seemingly “paying the price for purported links links to money politics” and his meteoric rise in the party echelon.
“If Najib fails to galvanise Umno whose members appear in disarray over its direction, there is no doubt Abdullah and Khairy will make their move,” says the veteran party member.
“They have been waiting for just the right opportunity and so far it looks like things are looking up for them.”
He was, of course, alluding to recent polls showing a dive in Najib’s ratings and his early popularity seemingly waning after some early promise amid high hopes among the people of change that appear to have been wanting so far.
Analysts see Najib’s pronouncement of repealing the Internal Security Act (although it seems likely that similar but less draconian legislation may take its place) and removing some curbs on the media as indications of his desperate bid to shore-up support ahead of the 13th general election.
“It may well be his trump card to shore up support considering his appeal has noticeably waned,” says a MCA party veteran.
Party war chest?
Some analysts see a highly dubious link between recent corporate deals and a bid by Umno party factions to build a war chest ahead of the next Umno party elections and the 13th general election, which may well prove pivotal to Umno’s very existence as a backbone of the Barisan Nasional.
They see a link in the controversy-plagued purchase by plantations conglomerate Sime Darby of a 30 per cent stake in Eastern & Oriental (E&O), a Penang-based property concern.
Khairy’s good friend and high flying corporate czar Kalimullah Hassan’s ECM Libra Financial Group Bhd had emerged as a substantial shareholder in Penang-based property developer E & O after accumulating 42 million shares or a 5.12 per cent equity interest in the company at end-April.
In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, ECM Libra said it had nudged its shareholding in E&O to 5.35 per cent or 41.41 million shares after mopping up an additional 3.4 million shares on May 9.
What ECM Libra plans to do with its block in E&O is not known and that has set tongues wagging over the intentions of those calling the shots behind the scenes.
“Could it have been the building of a war chest to help get the support their faction needs? The jury is still out on that one,” says a PAS division chief.
But the deal has already run into problems and may well end up dead in the water once the authorities are done with it.
The move by Sime Darby had raised the question as to whether it had secured control over E&O, having paid a significant premium over market for the shares.
The plot thickens over the acquisition when one considers the personalities involved. For one the chairman of E&O, Azizan Abdul Rahman (a close friend of Kalimullah) had raised his personal stake in the company just weeks before Sime Darby announced its proposed acquisition in E&O.
Critics of the deal argue that Sime Darby’s purchase of the block from three groups was structured in a way to circumvent the country’s takeover code.
What’s more intriguing is that Azizan is the husband of the Securities Commission chairman, Zarinah Anwar. The SC has since come under pressure to investigate Azizan for insider trading, putting Zarinah in a conflict of interest situation as the SC mulls whether the transaction had breached the country’s Takeover Code.
Other factions in power play
Umno party insiders say Mahathir and his open links with Perkasa make him a formidable entity with all the clout to usurp power at a stroke, albeit one with a more radical flavour.
“He is watching Najib like a hawk and there are those who say he is eager to see his son Mukhriz play a more dominant role in the party. Despite being considered by many as a party elder statesman, he is still a king maker and there’s no ruling him out of any equation,” says a BN component party member.
His links with Perkasa have also served to burnish the former premier’s credentials as having Umno’s “back to basics” politics at heart rather than the reform path set forth by Najib.
The other faction, of course, is that helmed by Muhyiddin who has clearly demarcated his own road map to grabbing power.
“His ‘I am Malay first and Malaysian second’ still rankles within BN component party leaders and he is clearly set on not following the drummer,” adds the BN insider. “He is playing his own tune to Najib’s consternation.”
His body language and blatant posturing to Umno hardliners has set him out clearly as a proxy leader in the event Najib falls on his sword or takes the rap for any poor showing at the next general election.
As these factions engage in perhaps one of the most keenly-fought shadow power plays Umno has ever witnessed in recent years, the die has been cast for tumultuous jockeying where the winner may well depend on who gets to roll and blow the dice. And above all, at the ready to stump out an endless supply of cash. - Malaysia Chronicle
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