Najib's Malay Dilemma II

LETTER Prime Minister Najib Razak will face very tough decisions in 2012. The force of Mahathirism has reared its head and is showing signs of spreading. The beginning of Mahathir's Malay Dilemma II will again change the political economic and social landscape of Malaysia and surely trouble Najib, who will remain the incumbent UMNO president and prime minister after the next general election.

At 85, Mahathir is still going strong and has not stopped speaking his mind on the local political scene. His opinion is still having a positive influence on the Malaysian political and economic transformations that Prime Minister Najib is trying to introduce through his vision to transform Malaysia into the next level of national development toward the year 2020.

Political analysts have been speculating that it is not that easy for Najib to change the mindset of the Malays especially with regards to their political aspirations at state and national level, whereby the heads of UMNO divisions and branches are still weilding the power and resisting any changes that will affect their political patronage and fortune. It is therefore, almost impossible to come up with a list of "winnable candidates" for UMNO to represent BN in most of the parliamentary and state seats.

Cracking the whip

In order for Najib to realise his political transformation, many of the tainted and corrupted grass-root leaders will have to be phased out and make way for more educated, hardworking and acceptable candidates in the eyes of the voters across the political divide. It is estimated that more than 70% of these UMNO national and state-level senior leaders, who have overstayed their term of office, can no longer be acceptable as recycled candidates for the 13th General Election. This is also true in the other BN component parties and there is tremendous political pressure within their parties to press for a immediate change in their leadership.

However, the election and appointment of party leaders within the BN component parties remain the prerogative of the respective members with the endorsement of their party leadership and supreme council. Najib who is the BN chairman and prime minister will have to assert his independent power and insist on transformation within the BN parties, which will be closely monitored by analysts to gauge if Najib is stamping his authority by way of a tougher stance in the political bargaining. Najib has to crack the whip and show them who is the boss and there is no alternative if BN is to continue surviving and ruling this country, which has seen few radical changes after more than 54 years of governance.

What is Dilemma II

The second wave of the Malay dilemma II will compose of the current Malay problems and issues in West Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak. The Malay success depends on equal opportunity, now being created through the various government, political, economic and social transformation programs. The success of these transformation programs will depend very much on the implementation of Najib's vision and mission to take Malaysia to the next level of development. It is hoped that through these transformation programs, the gaps between the Malays and the Non-Malays will be closed as much as possible in order to ensure that the overall success of the programs, which will also require greater compromise and unity among the people under the spectrum of the 1Malaysia initiative.

Having said that, it is felt that there are still a lot of political and social-economic issues that will have to be resolved in Sabah and Sarawak caused by the political divide in both the states. Although, there is no UMNO influence as per se in Sarawak, however the political base is cracking up due to the weakening of Taib Mahmud's party and his leadership. On the other hand as witnessed in the last state general election, there was an upsurge of Chinese support for DAP which led to the political demise of SUPP's leadership. Taib Mahmud is now facing tremendous political pressure for him to resign as the party president and also as the Chief Minister.

In Sabah, the political situation is not that stable as UMNO Sabah is being challenged 'underground'. The challenge involves powerful UMNO leaders like Musa Aman, Salleh Keruah, Shafie Afdal and Anifah Aman, the brother of Musa Aman. Under the present political circumstances, UMNO's main thrust of political power can no longer depend on the substantial "fixed deposit" of UMNO's delegates from Sabah in the coming 2012 party election.

The Palace

Last but not least, the BN government under Najib Razak will have to take into serious consideration the impact of Palace influence on the status of the Malays and Muslims in this country. The Malay Ruler Council or "Majlis Raja-Raja Melayu" under the better educated leadership of very pragmatic future Sultans and Malaysia's supreme King will determine the fate of the Malays and Muslims in this country.

The supreme King, HM Yang Di Pertuan Agong and HRH the state Sultans will have the final say in all matters relating to Islam and Muslims without any prejudice or political influence. The King and Sultans will have to abide by the Federal Constitution that guarantees the well being and position of the Non-Malays and also the Non-Muslims in this country.

Therefore, the Non-Malays especially the Chinese, the minority Indians and others have nothing to fear as long as they are protected by the King, Rulers in the spirit and essence of the Federal Constitution and State Islamic Laws, etc. It is also a save haven, even if BN is no longer the elected government of the day and replaced by the Pakatan Rakyat or under a two party system of governance. Malaysia should retain the Monarchy system of government no matter which party (parties) rule this country. The people will reject the presidential system of government.

- Dato' Mustapha Ong is a retired former top civil servant and diplomat