GE-13: To be or not to be held in March?

The Chinese New Year falls in January this year, less than a month from the opening of new school term.

For political leaders, time flies and if the next general election is going to be held right after the Chinese New Year, there might not be enough time to get prepared.

Based on a few factors, the 13th general election seems unlikely to be held in March.

Firstly, Umno's internal stability is still not strong enough. Prime Minister and BN Chairman Datuk Seri Najib Razak selects candidates based on their chances of winning, regardless of their positions. However, who would think that they have low chances of winning? It is said that some district and senior leaders have refused to resign, placing the Prime Minister in a dilemma.

In addition, Najib also intends to replace some state Menteri Besar but the move is delayed due to factional problems and the consideration of whether the new candidates are acceptable by Malay rulers.

It would create a chaos to dissolve the Parliament without getting a prior acquiescence of the grassroots.

Before the next election is held, Najib must also solve the corruption allegations, including the National Feedlot Corporation (NFC) issue involving Women, Family and Community Development Minister Datuk Seri Shahrizat Abdul Jalil's family. Meanwhile, Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Dr Awang Adek Hussin also admitted that cash contributions were channelled to accounts under his name.

Umno leaders can no longer remain silent over these issues or the Pakatan Rakyat will continue attacking, digging and expanding the damage.

Secondly, Sabah and Sarawak are not ready for the general election at the moment. The two states are considered as the BN's bastions but both have encountered some problems lately.

Before the infighting of SUPP is settled, four elected representatives from SPDP have quit the party following disagreements with the party president. Although the internal problems of the two parties would not affect the overall performance of Sarawak BN, it is still unacceptable to lose even a few seats.

As for Sabah, before central leaders mediate and resolve the conflicts between the LDP and Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Musa Aman, there is now a rumour saying Deputy Housing and Local Government Minister and Beaufort MP Datuk Seri Lajim Ukin is ready to quit the BN and lead a new party, due to dissatisfaction over being removed from the candidate list of he 13th general election. Also, Parti Upko president Tan Sri Bernard Dompok has denied the rumour of withdrawal from the BN.

It seems to have a reason for DAP Parliamentary Leader Lim Kit Siang to say in December last year that the political situation in Sabah will change.

The alternative coalition has been very active recently, including bringing State Reform Party (STAR) into Sabah. Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim also stressed that the Pakatan Rakyat will cooperate with small parties to win more seats.

Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng also pointed out before that to seize the central power, the Pakatan Rakyat would have to win one-third of the 56 parliamentary seats, namely 18 seats. If the alternative coalition enhance its penetration, it is not impossible to achieve.

Thirdly, the Pakatan Rakyat has restored stability. The PKR had gone through the most unstable period in 2010 during the outbreak of party withdrawal wave. Today, Anwar is acquitted while former Selangor PAS Commissioner Datuk Dr Hasan Ali is sacked. The crises are settled and the unity of the Pakatan Rakyat will be the greatest threat to the BN.

The prosecuting team of Anwar's sodomy trial wants to appeal against the High Court decision and it is believed to bring political impacts. If Anwar continues to be entangled by the case, he would be unable to focus on the general election.

Although the people-friendly policies under the Budget have been implemented, including the RM500 Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M) scheme, but due to the considerations of the above mentioned factors and Najib's cautious style, he will not easily decide the election date. Therefore, it is unlikely to have the next general election in March.

-Sin Chew Daily