Over the weekend, an Umno-owned daily raised eyebrows when it reported that there was speculation of Home Minister Hishamuddin Hussein being be made the next Mentri Besar of Johor. But is there any reason to believe that such rumors could be true? What about the incumbent chief minister Ghani Othman? And is there any purpose for the news report? Was someone trying to signal something to Hisham and Prime Minister Najib Razak or were the cousins trying to signal something to someone?
A sheaf of questions and no real answers but whatever it is, the report confirms that we have been reporting for a while now. Infighting in Umno is in advanced stage, and perhaps the Hisham rumor signals a key decision has been made. All these, of course, relate to the leadership succession in pirate Umno and who gets what and when.
A shell of a party Umno may be, with little cash to its name but its political power is still strong for now, and with the opportunity to make new gains and protect old ones, it is still a valuable vehicle to 'own' and control for those who have long-terms interests to preserve, such as former premier Mahathir Mohamad.
"If the rumor is true, then it is a huge step-down for Hisham. No doubt about it, as Home Minister, he is within striking distance of the PM'c hair. I am sure Hisham does not consider it an equal exchange," Chua Jui Meng, PKR's Johor chief, told Malaysia Chronicle.
Won't dare hold GE-13 without Mahathir's support
Indeed, political watchers suspect that Najib has decided to dump Hisham to fast-track Mukhriz Mahathir into the top Umno leadership. Mukhiriz, the youngest son of the ex-premier, holds the key to how the chips will fall in the Umno party election due later this year and to a significant extent, the outcome of the 13th general election, also widely expected to held this year.
"It signals that Hisham will have to give way. Najib won't dare hold GE-13 without Mahathir's upport and GE-13 cannot be held until the succession question is fully trashed, from Mukhriz, right down to the Mentri Besars of each state. That's why the talk about Tee Keat for Selangor, Hisham for Johor and so forth," PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.
"Basically, if Hisham is out and it is not necessary he has tol go to JB, just as long as it understood he is not in line for a top post, then Najib has his deal with Mahathir, which is Najib will stay on as Umno president, Muhyiddin the deputy and Mukhriz will get in with a vice president's post. Later on, Muhyiddin will be eased out and Mukhriz will succeed him. This is way, Mahathir doesn't have to wait so long."
Given Malaysia's elitist politics, what transpires at the top Umno leadership has been closely watched by pundits and even foreign analysts. Whoever takes over will offer a glimpse of the future Malaysia and under Mukhriz, who clearly is in awe of his dad, the country can be expected to shift further right.
At 86, Mahathir is the most reviled of Malaysia's 6 prime ministers so far for the unbridled corruption that took place under his power and the manner in which he castrated the agencies and apparatus of governance into stooges for his political interests. Talk about his ambitions for Mukhriz have swirled for years and till now, Mahathir has not made any denials.
Shorter queue for Mukhriz
Previously, the accepted sequence in the Umno musical chairs was for Najib to leave, Muhyiddin to take over with Hisham as the DPM, Mukhriz to get 'voted' into one of Umno's three vice presidencies and to take over as DPM to Hisham after Hisham takes over from Muhyiddin. "One term each," was what went down the Umno grapevine.
The latest deal - if struck - means Mukhriz gets to be prime minister at the end of the new 5-year term that will start if Najib is able to defend the federal government from a fast-advancing Pakatan Rakyat led by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim. It could even be sooner. It also means, Muhyiddin will never get to sit in the PM's chair but in Malaysia's history, DPMs seldom get to take over the top job. Hisham will have to bide his time, he could still be in the federal Cabinet but he will no longer be among the heir-apparents.
The previous way, Mukhriz would have to wait 10 years for Muhyiddin and Hisham to finish their terms. If still alive, Mahathir would be 96 then!
Whether or not Hisham is forced - by lack of choice to be the Johor MB, the state is already a hotbed of political undercurrents and activities. Current chief minister Ghani Othman does not get on well with the new Sultan.Hisham won't have the same worries, coming from the creme de la creme of Malay political aristocracy, so to speak.
His grand-dad Onn Jaafar founder Umno, wanted to make it a multiracial party, and left when he failed to convince the rest to drop the nationalist fervor. His father Hussein Onn was the third prime minister, his uncle Razak Hussein was the second and his cousin Najib is the 6th. It may not be unreasonable - at a personal level - for Hisham to sulk at being left out because of Mahathir's impatience to install Mukhriz as PM, although nepotsim be a good enough reason for inheriting power especially in a country that purported practises democracy.
On the wrong side of Father Time
But then, Mahathir probably reckons his need is more urgent. Not only is time against him, but if Mukhriz does not get in, he may not be able to leave in peace, knowing that all hell might break loose give the huge amounts of illicit wealth that he and his cronies are believed to have saletd away. The fortunes of his family, which includes two billionaire sons Mirzan and Mokhzaini, and those of his coterie of tycoons as well political allies such as Daim Zainuddin will be at threat.
Mahathir knows this and so does Najib. But Najib also knows that without Mahathir's support, he has zero chance to stave off Anwar's Pakatan Rakyat. A compromise has to be struck and to those who have been watching closely, a final deal is now taking shape and form.
"Once Mukhriz becomes PM, do you think he will let go and let someone like Hisham have a chance after 5 years? I can tell you Mukhriz will try to beat his father's 22-years record as PM, that's what will happen," an Umno watcher told Malaysia Chronicle.
"So it is something for Hisham to think about. In the first couple of years after GE-13, he can still have a powerful ministry but going forward, as Najib's power wanes, his will also weaken drastically. MB of Johor is not too bad after all because he gets to oversee Iskandar, and even if he can't have the highest power, at least he be rich and call the shots in Johor. It really is something for Hisham to think carefully about and not just chase after an impossible. Johor is a very good opportunity for him."
Culture of racism imbued into the cousins from early on
At 51, the LSE law-trained Hisham is a pleasant man with a friendly-nature, just like his cousin Najib. Sad to say, both men early on in their political careers voluntarily imbibed the political culture created and stamped onto Umno by Mahathir. It seems to Mahathir, nationalism - the essence of Umno - was equivalent to racism and depriving non-Malays in the country to benefit the Malays.
As such, Najib is infamous for vowing to bathe his keris or Malay sword in Chinese blood and for vowing to defend Putrajaya at all costs even with "crushed bones" "lost lives" and "ethnic cleansing".
Hisham was by comparison much more subdued. Even so, he offended the Chinese community deeply by brandishing the keris again at the Umno assembly, and this act was blamed by Gerakan, MCA and MIC as having contributed to the BN's disastrous results at the 2008 general election.
Sembrong not a safe seat anymore for Hisham
Hisham now stands to face further fallout from his action, which reeks of racism and intimidation. His current parliamentary constituency, Semberong, has 40% per cent Chinese voters.
"The keris is one thing, but in 2008, the Chinese in Johor still voted for Umno and BN. So it is what happened after that, when Hisham became the Home Minister that will go against him. The decisions that he has made have upset the Chinese and also many of the Malay liberals. The way he behaved like a mini-Hitler during the Bersih rally, the cow-head incident in Selangor where basically he responded based on race for the sake of politics rather than for justice and fair play are the reasons why he is likely to get booted out in Sembrong. This would be a real embarrassment for him, the grandson of Umno's founder.It is another reason for his to consider shifting to a state seat," said Jui Meng.
Sultan Ibrahim Ismail, who succeeded the throne in January 2010, will alsp play a key role in deciding who becomes the Mentri Besar. Like his dad, Sultan Ibrahim maintains a direct interest in how the state is being managed.
Some in Umno Johor have in private said this could be the reason why Gani is willing to call it a day, despite the huge possibilities that Iskandar can bring. However, having been chief minister since 1995, it is healthy for Umno to put in new blood in the state, which is expected to experience a late wave of reformist sentiment and plumb for the Pakatan Rakyat in GE-13.
There are other young Turks eyeing Ghani's hot seat and among these are Omar Mustapha, one of Najib's key financial and media advisers, and also a Petronas director.
Malaysia Chronicle
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