Umno STILL NOT fully prepared: Najib won't dissolve Parliament until PLAN A is ready

There have been numerous occasions when the people expected Prime Minister Najib Razak to announce the 13th general election date or it seemed to be just around the corner due to the pronouncements and insinuations he and other top Umno leaders made. But time and again, the Malaysian people were disappointed by Najib's lack of follow-through.

Even the political 'experts' as well as the Opposition have been stumped and proven wrong then they attempted to predict the timing of what will surely be Malaysia's most hotly-contested ballot. Why?

There are two simple reasons. Firstly, UMNO is still not fully prepared for GE-13. Secondly UMNO is not prepared to lose the GE-13 either. Of these two reasons, which is the more pressing concern right now to UMNO's ruling elite? Of course, it is the second factor. It may seem obvious why, but let's look at the situation from the UMNO point of view.

Prepared to win but not prepared to lose 

Preparing for the general elections is a 24/7 job for UMNO. Given the huge wealth its leaders have been able to reap by controlling the federal government, this is understandable. Actually, the process of preparing for the election actually continues immediately after every ballot. Seats won are reviewed and wannabes start to plot for the 'piece of action'. So in a way, it is not wrong to say UMNO has been preparing for every election starting from the day it was formed.

Under Najib, it is the same and more intense than ever before due to the high stakes involved. Najib has been preparing even before he was appointed the UMNO president. One reason former party president Mahathir Mohamad chose Najib was because he is 'rich'. Thanks to his stint in the Defense ministry and the string of lucrative arms procurement deals like the Scorpene submarines, Najib has been able to salt away a nice nest egg. So, UMNO and its leaders are never fully prepared but they are always ready when the time comes. Money may well be the better part of valor!

However UMNO has never contemplated losing. It has never lost the federal government before. The 2008 general election was a wake-up call but UMNO failed to get up and going. And this is why it is now suffering, hoping against hope to regain its advantage over the Pakatan Rakyat led by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim.

TOO afraid to lose

Odd as it may seem, but the prospect of loss took some time to get absorbed by UMNO leaders. They refused to acknowledge how precarious their positions are - even now. Due to its insistence on playing the counter-productive Malay supremacy car, PPP, Gerakan, MIC and MCA have practically been shredded to pieces by infighting and loss of support from their traditional electorate. Thus BN - which is actually UMNO and Taib Mahmud - is now fully dependent on UMNO and the long-time Sarawak Chief Minister to bring home the bacon.

But all the signs are not good and Najib doesn't help by continuing to delay the GE-13. Things will get worse and even with the cheating and polls-rigging, BN can no longer be sure of winning.

The Opposition is getting stronger and the people are becoming more aware of the fallacies in UMNO-BN and UMNO-BN is getting jittery by the day. UMNO must now answer, explain and counter every single issue brought up by the Opposition no matter how trivial it may be. For example, UMNO is now trying hard to debunk the Pakatan's shadow budget, whereas previously UMNO leaders - who never like to exercise their brains too much - would just brush it off.

Preparing for the WORST - Plan A

UMNO will prepare for two situations that could follow GE-13. Plan A is to continue controlling the country even if they lose by creating the necessary conditions, for example social riots which will allow them to proclaim an Emergency or putting as many Opposition leaders as they can in jail - obviously with the help of the police, the Attorney General and 'friendly' judges.

UMNO could even manipulate the result of the polls. If it loses, it can protest against its self-created irregularities and then blame these on the Election Commission, and ask the 'friendly' judges to pronounce the polls INVALID. Convenient scapegoat, the EC would of course be punished but not before being directed to organize another polls.

Whichever the method employed, UMNO will do whatever necessary to stay in power and by hook or by crook.

Plan B kicks off with UMNO leaders protecting their wealth, business and other interests firsts and foremost. They would start by grabbing as many business opportunities as they can. This is already evident as witness the 1Malaysia email project, the Ampang LRT extension, the controversial repurchase of several tolled roads and power plants by agencies including Najib's 1MDB. Getting cleared by courts and authorities would also be another precaution such as Sabah Chief Minister Musa Aman being allowed to get 'off the hook' over an alleged RM40 million cash stash.

Seeking asylum has not been ruled out either

While the UMNO elite is prepared to go all out to secure their vested interests, they have no clear plans yet on how to hold on to power. Maybe the idea of losing is too awful for them to confront but they have no choice because there is simply too much at stake. To the UMNO elite, they have to stay in power no matter what. If not they have Plan C, which is to prepare to seek asylum somewhere.

With such a load on his shoulder, it's no wonder Najib has not been able to announce the GE-13 date. Of course, as far as possible no one in UMNO would like to go to the extremes and would hope the conditions in the country will be conducive enough for UMNO-BN to win.

Sad to say, from the way Najib is procrastinating, UMNO knows that this will not happen. Thus Najib and UMNO are not taking any chances this time. The last thing they need is a repeat of their 2008 lesson.

Until Plan A is debugged and smoothed out, Najib will not dissolve Parliament. He has about six months from today to prepare it.

Malaysia Chronicle