PEKAN 'EARTHQUAKE': Najib the first incumbent PM to LOSE SEAT?

If PAS president Hadi Awang had his way, he would be contesting the Pekan parliamentary seat in the coming general election. If this happened, Prime Minister Najib Razak, the constituency's incumbent, would be forced to put up camp there if he did not want to suffer a humiliating and crushing defeat.

You see, Hadi may seem stern and hard to read but he is a man with huge grass roots support. Well-respected for his humility and Islamic credentials, Hadi has what Najib lacks the most - political credibility.

When a deputy minister in Najib's Cabinet Mashitah tried to smear Hadi with accusations he was involved in a sex scandal with a 'young virgin girl', the news initially shocked and then raised a huge giggle as Malays and non-Malays alike brushed off the news as another attempt by UMNO to use sex scandals to malign and topple leaders from the Opposition.

This says a lot for Hadi's reputation because when Najib and his wife Rosmah Mansor were accused of having a hand in the murder of Mongolian beauty Altantuya Shaariibuu, most Malaysians - perhaps as high as 8 out of 10 - believed the allegations. The first couple's thirst for power and money is visible even to the man in the street and this is why despite furious use of the federal government machinery to cover up the case has failed to douse suspicion and calls for a Royal public inquiry.

Capable leader

At 65, Hadi has quietly achieved what many other past PAS presidents have failed to do - modernize the Islamist party and breathe new life into its meaning and relevance to the Malay and Malaysian society of today. Obviously, it is still very much works-in-progress but already several major transformations have been implemented, the most critical being shifting the party out from its Islamic fundamentalist mindset into one that is ready to gel with the rest of the country by focusing on building a 'welfare state' equitable to all colors and creeds.

To PAS insiders, Hadi's strength is in his patience and long-term views. No explosive knee-jerk reactions from him. A good example is the way he decided to keep PAS' former deputy president Nasharuddin Mat Isa in the powerful Syura Council despite the latter publicly courting Najib and backstabbing his own party.

Hadi could have used his presidential power to sack him but he did not. This annoyed UMNO who had wanted to make a hero out of Nasha and create another stink in the Malay community about PAS losing its Islamic principles and selling out to the secular DAP.

"Even in 2008, when Nasha ‘used’ Hadi by cajoling him to attend several meetings with UMNO leaders on the pretext of Muslim brotherhood, he did not object. When it was clear Nasha's main intention was to seek a PAS-UMNO merger, Hadi came under suspicion from his Pakatan Rakyat partners and his own party members. But he did not panic," a PAS insider said.

It is this 'coolness' and Hadi's innate humility which are his strengths, and at the same time, also his weaknesses. To his critics, he is too humble for his own good, allowing himself to be used by the certain people in the party including Nasha. But the facts speak for themselves. Hadi has been PAS president since 2002, re-elected through the years by a respectful congress.

Has 'lost' Pekan before

Najib, the 59-year-old UMNO president, on the other hand is always right even when he is clearly wrong. Such is Najib's vanity that the entire governance and political system must praise and defend him even if it means having to lie to the people.

Whether it is at his wife's egging-on or his personal ambition still burning bright, Najib wants to remain UMNO president and the Prime Minister of Malaysia. As such, Najib has to make sure that he will definitely win in Pekan. But based on all the in-house surveys and information gathered by his aides, the political scenario is not like before and cannot be taken for granted. That's right. Najib's survival in Pekan - the seat he 'inherited' in 1976 after his father died is only 50-50 at best.

His aloofness over the Lynas rare-earth refinery in Gebeng and the controversial gold mine in Raub have negated a lot of the goodwill Pekan voters have for his father. Actually, Najib has 'lost' Pekan before. The UMNO folklore goes that in 1999, Pekan folk were enraged when he threw his support behind unpopular former premier Mahathir Mohamad who had controversially sacked and jailed Anwar Ibrahim, then the Deputy Prime Minister and the darling of the Malay community.

Najib was seen openly weeping at the counting booth but thanks to some 'tweaking' of postal votes, he turned in the slimmest of victory margins to hang onto the seat. It is no surprise that he has been accused of getting the Election Commission to pad an extra 18,000 new voters into Pekan electoral roll, most of whom are pro-BN government workers.

According to rivals, with planning and 'cheating', Najib thinks he is sure to win Pekan and would thus be afraid to contest anywhere else in Malaysia. So when Anwar Ibrahim, now the Opposition Leader, challenged Najib to contest in Marang - which is Hadi's long-held bastion - the PM's supporters bristled at the suggestion. UMNO vice president Zahid Hamidi accused Anwar of trying to deflect attention from his daughter Nurul Izzah, who is currently the target of an UMNO-led attack for allegedly encouraging apostasy amongst Malay-Muslims.

But say what they will, Najib and UMNO got the shock and scare of their lives when Hadi announced out of the blue that he would contest in Pekan. The PAS president is not afraid of losing, he is not even worried about not becoming a Member of Parliament. In fact, he had earlier expressed his wish to retire.

It is Najib, who is quaking at the prospect of not only losing the 13th general election but also his father's seat. That Najib and BN are now at their weakest is obvious in the manner in which other Malay leaders including former UMNO minister Zaid Ibrahim have dared to throw down the gauntlet for Pekan.

Prodigal son: Affable & courteous but not PM material

Najib has no real grass roots support in Pekan. The people there are neither deaf nor blind. They are not dumb either. They know what about the corruption allegations against him including the AES traffic summons, the George Kent-Ampang LRT extension and the red-hot French trial about the Scorpene submarines he ordered and allegedly took a 114 million euros bribe for. They are also wondering why two of his ex-bodyguards would want to kill Altantuya, whose connection to the Scorpenes purchase has been established by documents seized by French prosecutors.

The older generation in Pekan may hold fond memories of Najib's late father, who was Malaysia's second prime minister. But the younger ones - like Najib's own children - never knew Abdul Razak. They won't give two hoots and will instead think of Najib's alleged Mongolian mistress Altantuya, the excesses of his spendthrift wife Rosmah Mansor, his daughter's expensive engagement party, his controversial son-in-law and mother-in-law from Kazakhstan who have been accused of being international swindlers and 'con men'.

Now, do you understand why Najib needs 18,000 new voters for backup in GE13? Unlike the prodigal son whose return to the fold was rejoiced by the entire household except one, Najib is the prodigal son whose return was not rejoiced by the majority of the Pekan household. A courteous and affable soul he might be, but Najib's careless and free-living ways have not convinced Pekan folk he is a good leader for Malaysia. They may like him for being Razak's oldest son but they are not proud of him and may not like him to remain as PM for another 5 years.

Yes, the shrewd Hadi Awang has struck a deft and powerful blow to UMNO's innermost sanctum. Najib’s hold on Pekan is not in anyway absolute while losing it would be the final nail to UMNO's coffin.

For now, the PAS top leadership has refused to approve Hadi's request. And Hadi has no choice but to toe their line. But who knows? The situation can change once GE13 is announced and Parliament dissolved.

Even if Hadi is held back, chances are high for a free-for-all in Pekan. Which young Turk would not want to go down in history by taking Najib's scalp? Even Najib's critical deputy Muhyiddin Yassin has said ' the more the merrier!'.

Malaysia Chronicle