Pulling a rabbit out of a hat

 

First of all, I don’t think that the next general election is going to be held in December this year. It would most likely be around February-March next year. And the timing of the general election would all depend on whether Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak is able to pull a rabbit out of his hat.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

There are four very interesting news reports that I would like to comment on today. (Maybe you can read those four news reports below before you read what I am going to say).

First of all, I don’t think that the next general election is going to be held in December this year. It would most likely be around February-March next year. And the timing of the general election would all depend on whether Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak is able to pull a rabbit out of his hat.

Assuming Najib fails to perform his magic trick and things more or less remain the same, then this is what I forecast we may see.

Umno will sail through with about 70-75 parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia. MCA will not win more than ten seats. MIC, Gerakan and PPP will get wiped out. Barisan Nasional Sabah and Sarawak will pull through with 30-35 seats while 20-25 seats will go to Pakatan Rakyat plus some ‘independent’ parties.

This would mean Pakatan Rakyat could win 100-110 parliament seats while Barisan Nasional would win 110-120 seats.

If Pakatan Rakyat wins 110 parliament seats this will mean Malaysia will see a hung parliament with Barisan Nasional winning only 112 seats. Then about 5-10 Barisan Nasional MPs will cross over to help Pakatan Rakyat form the new federal government. And the majority of these crossovers will be from East Malaysia.

However, it can also work the other way. In the event of a hung parliament, 5-10 MPs from Pakatan Rakyat can cross over to Barisan Nasional to help Barisan Nasional increase its majority in Parliament.

Hence both sides need to be very careful in their choice of candidates because ‘negotiations’ are ongoing by both sides of the political divide for potential crossover candidates.

Kelantan, Penang and Selangor are safe states for Pakatan Rakyat. Sabah, Sarawak, Perlis, Terengganu, Pahang and Johor are safe states for Barisan Nasional. Kedah, Perak, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka can go either way. For the 13 Federal Territory seats, five can go to Barisan Nasional and eight to Pakatan Rakyat.

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Najib: GE could be in Dec, or next year

Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak said the 13th general election can be held in December, even though the country will be facing the monsoon at that time.

He was confident that despite the monsoon season, the machinery of the political parties contesting in the election could face any eventuality.

“If it rains or a flood occurs, (then we) can use the boat,” he said in jest when asked whether the GE would be held in the near future or Parliament would dissolve on its own on the expiry of the current mandate.

He said this in an interview with editors of Bernama and Utusan Group in conjunction with the Umno General Assembly 2012 at his office in Parliament House, recently.

Najib, who is also Umno president, however, did not rule out the possibility that the election would be held next year if it is not held next month.

“If there is no election in December, then it will be held next year,” he said.

Najib has up to April 28 next year to dissolve Parliament to make way for the 13th general election before the Parliament dissolves on its own, and the Election Commission is compelled to set a date for the general election within two months of the dissolution of Parliament.

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Dr M: Barisan can retain power with two-thirds majority

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has predicted that Barisan Nasional will keep Putrajaya and that regaining a two-thirds majority in Parliament is not an impossible target.

He said Kedah, Selangor and Penang were winnable on condition that Umno did not indulge in the politics of sabotage and members supported the selected candidates.

Dr Mahathir has been driving home the “no sabotage” message at a string of meetings he has had with Umno leaders and groups from all over the country.

He also made it crystal clear that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak has his unreserved support, slamming pro-Pakatan Rakyat news portals which keep claiming that he wanted Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to take over.

“That is their propaganda. Have they ever heard me promoting Muhyiddin? During Pak Lah's time, yes, I did try to promote Muhyiddin. But Muhyiddin told me he is fully behind Najib and would not go against Najib. They are harping on this because they want to make Umno weak.

“I have spoken to Umno all over the country. I told them they have to support Najib to win the election,” he said.

“Najib has done a lot of good, maybe there are things which could be improved but we can tackle that after the general election.”

He was confident that Johor and Negri Sembilan would stay with Barisan despite the Opposition's ambitions in these two states.

He said that although Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng was so powerful that he was known as tokong (deity), there were people who were not happy with him.

Dr Mahathir also said it was time Kelantan Mentri Besar Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat kept his promise to retire.

“He promised to step down when I stepped down. These people never keep their word. They are supposed to be religious people but religious people who don't keep their word are not very religious,” he added.

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Professor: Barisan can win 120 seats if polls are held now

(The Star) - Barisan Nasional can win 120 seats if the general election were to be held now, said National Council of Professors deputy chairman Prof Datuk Dr Shamsul Amri Baharuddin.

However, he told Sinar Harian that 24 seats were still considered “grey areas” while Pakatan was expected to win 70.

He predicted that Barisan would still be able to form the Federal Government in spite of a comparatively slimmer majority than in 2008.

“They will win no fewer than 120 seats. Now, Barisan has 140 seats, 24 are “grey areas” while the remaining are taken up by Pakatan Rakyat. Overall, the majority is narrow,” he said in a pre-Umno annual general assembly interview.

Currently, Barisan has 137 seats in Parliament while Pakatan holds 72. Seven seats are held by independents, PSM has one while SAPP has two.

Dr Shamsul Amri said his prediction was based on research conducted in September by his team.

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BN confident of recapturing Selangor

(Bernama) -- Barisan Nasional (BN) is confident of re-capturing Selangor from the opposition pact in the 13th general election, said Selangor BN Coordinator Datuk Seri Mohd Zin Mohamed today.

"The momentum is with us now. Based on the response and support shown by the Selangor people the advantage is on our side.

"Therefore, we should build up the momentum and not do anything that can weaken it," he said when opening the Selangor People's Progressive Party Convention at SJK (C) Yuk Chyun, Jalan Klang Lama near here.

Towards this end, he said, members of all BN component parties should move in one group and made decisions collectively so that BN would remain strong.

He also told members of BN component parties in Selangor to unite and not to sabotage one another or the parties in BN.