REALLY? The Najib brand appeals to Kedah

WINDS OF CHANGE- Support is returning to Barisan Nasional from two key groupsUmno ready to redeem itself

IT'S rare to see many picnickers at Pantai Merdeka, the only sand beach in mainland Kedah, on a working day. So, when 15,000 of the state's farming and fishing community thronged the beach, 60km south of Alor Star, on Wednesday, it turned into a festival-like outing. There, many got to meet or see Datuk Seri Najib Razak in person for the first time, thanks to the Kedah Farmers' Association -- its leaders had been instrumental in pulling the crowd to the Himpunan Peladang, Penternak dan Nelayan Kedah.

The prime minister, who was on a one-day working visit to Kedah, was given a rousing welcome as he arrived in a boat from Tanjung Dawai, escorted by 40 fishing boats.

Gatherings of farmers and fishermen have been a big deal in Kedah. The two groups form the bulk of Kedah's 1.8 million population, making up a huge percentage of its one million registered voters, which Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat are actively wooing ahead of key national polls that could return BN to power in this agriculture-based state.

There are 50,000 farming families in the Muda Agricultural Development Authority (Mada) area alone, which comprises the parliamentary seats of Jerlun, Kubang Pasu, Alor Star, Kuala Kedah, Pokok Sena, Pendang and Jerai. Another 6,000 fishing families are located in Kuala Muda, Yan, Langkawi, Kuala Kedah and Jerlun. A sizeable portion of Kedah's agriculture population is involved in rubber planting.

The Muda irrigation scheme, managed by Mada, transformed the lives of the farmers, while various forms of subsidies and assistance are provided by Federal Government agencies to fishermen and those involved in agriculture-related activities.

The reality in Kedah is that Pas' influence is strong in areas where the pondok (traditional religious schools) are located, the strongest being in Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Azizan Razak's seat of Sungai Limau and Tokai (formerly Bukit Raya), where the influence of former Pas president, the late Datuk Fadzil Mohd Noor, has remained strong.

Despite the popular 3-P link -- pondok, padi, Pas (traditional religious schools, padi and Pas) -- still in play, Umno/BN had won seats with these criteria in the past, namely the parliamentary seats of Jerlun, Kuala Kedah, Pokok Sena, Pendang and Jerai. But local Umno leaders believe the winds are now blowing in BN's favour. They say the Najib brand appeals to the people, especially the BN supporters who switched allegiance in 2008 because of dissatisfaction over various issues.

Also, they say ad-hoc surveys conducted among the Chinese community, particularly those involved in business and trading, showed they do not foresee a better future under Pas' administration but are still, at this point, unwilling to throw their support behind Umno. They realise there were no new business opportunities in the services, tourism, manufacturing and agriculture sectors in the past four years. The industrial areas in Kulim, Bukit Kayu Hitam, Sungai Petani and Gurun also did not have any new entry since 2008.

It shocked Kedah Umno when the green tide of Pas swept across the state in the last general election. BN was only able to hang on to 14 seats in the 36-seat legislative assembly, handing Pas a new power base in the Malay heartland. BN lost power mainly because of fence sitters swinging their votes to the opposite and Umno supporters not backing BN candidates.

"Azizan was riding high in the first two years in power but his popularity rating has since faltered because of the leadership tussle in the party and several controversies involving decisions and policies implemented by the state government.

"If there is less bickering in Umno, people would be willing to return BN to power," immediate past menteri besar Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid said in an interview after Najib's visit.

There was too much bickering within Kedah Umno then, mostly over the choice of candidates.

Had internal bickering been contained, Umno could have retained Kedah with a single-seat majority. The five marginal seats the party lost could have been won had Umno members voted for Umno and BN candidates.

BN lost five seats by between 79 and 503 votes or by 1,500 votes in total, which it could have got if Umno members had not sabotaged the results by giving their votes to opposition candidates, spoiling them or staying away from voting, leading to low voter turnouts in some areas.

Pantai Merdeka and Tanjung Dawai are among the seats in question that show signs of support returning to BN.

Pas’ Abdullah Jusoh won Pantai Merdeka by a majority of 503 votes, defeating Dr Shuib Saedin of Umno despite the latter having won the seat with a 2,661 majority vote in 2004. An election post-mortem showed that only 23,101 of the 27,784 registered voters turned out to vote and that there were 296 spoilt votes, mostly involving BN supporters.

Umno’s Datuk Arzmi Hamid, who won Tanjung Dawai with a comfortable majority of 5,151 in 2004, failed to retain his seat, losing by a mere 79 votes to Dr Hamdan Khalid of Pas. A total 23,533 of 29,446 registered voters cast their votes but there were 618 spoilt votes, believed to be done out of protest.

Increased political activities in the state and problems that had besetted the Pas-led state government over the past two years will give an added advantage to BN.

Azizan, whose health had taken a tumble and is embattled in a leadership tussle, is concerned that Kedah Umno and BN members had recovered from the 2008 electoral thrashing and are now back on track after being pushed to buck up by the Umno leadership.

While awaiting the return of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong from performing the haj at the Sultan Abdul Halim airport on Wednesday, he had asked his predecessor, Mahdzir, what the crowd was like during Najib’s visit to Tanjong Dawai and Pantai Merdeka. He also wanted to know what the prime minister had announced for the people of Kedah.

Najib had approved an “irrigation highway” for 38,000ha of padi fields in Pendang to boost rice yields for 3,000 farmers and housing for 2,000 fishermen in Tanjung Dawai.

The mood in Kedah remains hard to read as many seats had swung both ways in past elections. Pas, however, has reason to be worried given more and more people had realised they had voted in a state government that is lacking in governing skills and experience. The party fears its new supporters will heed Najib’s advice to the Pantai Merdeka crowd to return support to BN for a better deal.

Najib had said in the Kedah lingo: “Hangpa dah terlajak (all of you had overshot), tapi tak apa itu boleh ubah tak lama lagi (but it is all right, that can be corrected soon).”

More importantly, Kedah Umno’s machinery must be ready when the time comes if the party is not to miss the opportunity to redeem itself for the 2008 losses.

- New Straits Times