General Election 2013 – BN, Shifting From Strategic Defence to Strategic Offense

The Opposition has also run out of ammunitions and their rank and file is woefully battle-fatigued. Self-doubts have emerged and major policy disagreements between DAP and PAS have divided the rank and file as well. Karpal Singh has done an invaluable service to the BN government. Whatever surprises that were touted as game-changers, such as the so-called political realignments in Sabah, could not be sustained and have not been transformed into any major groundswell.

By Matthias Chang – Future Fast-forward

In my previous articles, I suggested several reasons for having a General Election in 2013, one of which was that as long as the Opposition controlled four State Governments, it would be a strategic disadvantage to the BN Government to have an early election. The four State Governments controlled by the Opposition parties would not be dissolved in the event of an early election so that they could harness their limited resources and concentrate on the Parliamentary Election in an attempt to seize Federal power. The four State Governments would be the “impregnable forts” offering shelter and resources to opposition forces and afford them opportunities to conduct strategic forays in BN controlled areas.

Since 2010, the strategists in the Opposition camp have been baiting the BN Government to hold early elections and each time, I had warned of such a danger. The four “impregnable fortresses” have now been encircled and whatever forays outside the fortresses had limited battlefield success.

If I were Anwar Ibrahim, I would sack those strategists who were conducting continuous and relentless battles against the BN government since 2010. If Tommy Thomas was one of them, he should be the first to be "decapitated", figuratively speaking. How can any strategist be so stupid to adopt the blunders of Brutus (especially riding on the wrong tide) in the famous final Battle of Philippi as the winning strategy for the Opposition? Brutus, casting aside the advice of the more cautious Cassius, misread the tide and plunged into a disastrous defeat. To salvage what little honour remaining, Brutus committed suicide, as did other conspirators who murdered the great Caesar on the false pretext that the assassination was necessary to save Rome. And as they say, the rest is history!

History will repeat itself in the “Second Battle of Philippi”, which will commence soon enough.

One must not ride on the crest of every tide for there are tides that will assuredly lack the force and momentum to guarantee victory. Low tide comes to mind.

In July 2012, the strategic balance changed for BN – from Strategic Defence to Strategic Parity. Since December 2012, we are witnessing a new phase – Strategic Offense – the gathering momentum for an irreversible High Tide!

A good analogy of what has happened would be the great victory by the greatest boxer in history, Muhammad Ali over the big puncher, George Foreman in Africa. Employing the “rope-a-dope” tactic, Ali baited George Foreman to punch relentlessly for eight critical rounds until exhaustion took over. Ali took every punishing blow to the head and the body, absorbing the pain and the relentless pace. When Foreman was all spent and worn out, Muhammad Ali unleashed a devastating blow that floored Foreman for good.

Well, the Opposition has thrown every conceivable punch at the BN for the last three years but there was no knockout punch. Like the abovementioned boxing match, the pace was relentless, and the blows punishing but BN took it all and is still standing.

The Opposition has also run out of ammunitions and their rank and file is woefully battle-fatigued. Self-doubts have emerged and major policy disagreements between DAP and PAS have divided the rank and file as well. Karpal Singh has done an invaluable service to the BN government. Whatever surprises that were touted as game-changers, such as the so-called political realignments in Sabah, could not be sustained and have not been transformed into any major groundswell.

Initially, the Opposition held the high ground, having the tactical advantage and when they over-estimated their strength, they launched a blitzkrieg offensive on several fronts, all at once and gained massive ground. But, the offensive sputtered in the second half of 2012 and by December stalled. It is clear that the Opposition "Generals" are at a lost as to which front-lines are to be abandoned, the troops pulled back to a more defensible perimeter and how to prepare for the inevitable counter-attack.

Napoleon made the same strategic mistake and so did Hitler when they attacked Russia. The critical blunder was to launch a broad frontal attack in the hope of a rapid collapse of enemy's forces thereby exposing the weakness of the supply lines, stretched thin by the wide frontlines. When the great Marshal Zhukov counter-attacked, the entire Eastern Front collapsed leading to the defeat of Nazi Germany!

The Opposition has now consolidated and reduced their frontlines to the battle for Penang and Selangor with expeditionary forces in Sabah and Sarawak as diversions. But, it is too late. Exhausted troops are manning the frontlines, not sure of fresh supplies or reserves. If truth be told, the Opposition has no reserves at all.

The Barisan Nasional has already launched its counter-attack with a full Division of fresh troops kept in the rear as reserves for two years for this one objective. And they have abundant supplies.

Additionally, the Opposition’s propaganda campaign is losing momentum and has no longer any bite. It was a huge strategic mistake for the Opposition to latch on to the coattails of Deepak, a blackmailer whose agenda was hijacked by an opportunist legal goon to project himself as the “Knight in Shining Armour”, who has opened himself to future prosecution for being complicit in drawing up the so-called first statutory declaration for private-eye P. Balasubramaniam.

My reasons are as follows. The clue is in the followings words of the press release dated December 20, 2012 by the solicitor of P. Balasubramaniam:

 “As far as I am concerned, the 1st SD was transcribed, produced and eventually affirmed by my client over a period of two months during which time every detail was painstakingly checked and cross-checked to ensure the highest accuracy…” (and as reported by Malaysiakini)

Based on the above statement, the rakyat is told to accept as Gospel truth what is stated in the Statutory Declaration (SD). Who did the checking and crosschecking? The lawyer? The private eye? Some other third party? If it is the lawyer, what are the implications? Let me just say, he is on shaky grounds to assert so boldly that “every detail was checked and cross-checked”. But, there are no statements as to how the checking and crosschecking were conducted and with whom did the lawyer and or the private eye checked and crosschecked the so-called details!

By the way, there is no such hotel as the “Prince Court Hotel” where it was alleged that the 2nd SD was executed. There is however a “Prince Hotel & Residence” in Kuala Lumpur and a “Prince Court Medical Centre” also in Kuala Lumpur. Was this fact checked and crosschecked by the solicitor when he released his press statement, I wonder? If not, why not? The location of an alleged crime scene is most important. But, this is now open to doubt notwithstanding that the crime scene was identified as the non-existent “Prince Court Hotel” by a member of the profession that prides itself as being honourable! If every detail relating to the 2nd SD was not meticulously checked and cross-checked as it should be, then one has to question the accuracy of the 1st SD and no one should take the word of the solicitor as the absolute truth.

Even the contrived “Deepak Scandal” did not have the desired effect. The goons behind this pantomime who postured as “knights in shining armour” were in fact muckrakers, peddling trash. The orchestrated press conference consists of innuendos and subtle speculations but devoid of hard evidence. The conductor of this third rate pantomime, if truth be told, is an opportunist and a coward.

Let’s call a spade a spade – the conductor of this sordid pantomime was orchestrating an insidious blackmail and his co-conspirators who pride themselves as honourable were up to their eyeballs in this cesspool.

The entire political campaign of the Opposition (save that of PAS) was grounded on emotions and hate. In essence, the political campaign of the Opposition is a “Hate Campaign” – to demonise and politically assassinate the leaders of the Barisan Nasional (past and present).

More important issues are at stake and Malaysians should take time to analyse some critical facts with regard to the leading members of the Opposition parties. Take Lim Kit Siang. Politically as a member of parliament, he can be likened to a “rolling stone”, one who has no loyalties to his constituency. How else can one explain his track record as an MP:-

• Bandar Melaka (1969–1974)

• Kota Melaka (1974–1978)

• Petaling Jaya (1978–1982)

• Kota Melaka (1982–1986)

• Tanjong (1986–1999)

When his Tanjong campaign to take over Penang failed in 1995 and 1999 (he was rejected and defeated in Tanjong together with Karpal Singh in Jelutong in 1999), he gave up totally the campaign to capture Penang. What happened in 2008 was unexpected, for if DAP was so sure of taking over Penang he would have waged battle in Penang. The DAP Chief in Penang, Chow Kon Yeow publicly declared in 2003 that there would be no more Tanjong 3! So, Kit Siang ran to Perak to seek greener pastures.

• Ipoh Timur (since 2004)

Karpal Singh is a lesser rolling stone.

Karpal's political career began in 1970 when he joined the DAP. He won the Alor Setar Bandar state seat in Kedah in 1974. He was first elected to parliament in 1978 when he won in the Jelutong constituency, Penang, as well as the Bukit Gelugor state seat. Karpal held the Jelutong seat for more than 20 years until losing it in 1999. He held the Bukit Gelugor state seat until 1990, moving on to contest the Sungai Pinang and Padang Kota seats in subsequent elections but was defeated. In the 2004 general election, Karpal returned to parliament with a 1,261-majority win in the new Bukit Gelugor seat and retained his seat in the 2008 election.

Lim Guan Eng has a similar pattern.

Lim was first elected as a Member of Parliament for Kota Melaka in 1986, after defeating Soh Chin Aun and was re-elected in the subsequent 1990 and 1995 general elections, albeit with reduced majority votes. He was ineligible to contest in the 2005 election on account of his conviction for sedition. He suffered a personal setback when he and his wife came in last and second-last respectively in the election for the DAP Malacca Committee. It came as no surprise therefore, that in the 2008 General Election he switched to Penang as it is clear he did not enjoy much support in Malacca even within his own party. The unexpected DAP victory in Penang in the 2008 general election allowed Lim Guan Eng to become the Chief Minister of Penang replacing the former Chief Minister, Tan Sri Dr. Koh Tsu Koon even though Lim Guan Eng is not from Penang. Senior DAP leaders of Penang such as Lim Hock Seng, Phee Boon Poh, and Chow Kon Yeow were bypassed and were instead appointed as excos.

The above, by any measure, is a reflection of the political opportunism practiced by the three top leaders of DAP and I would urge the Malaysian voters to be very cautious in entrusting the fate of our country to such leaders.

I must give credit where credit is due. It can be said without any fear of contradiction that of the three Opposition parties, PAS is the most consistent in its political aim of setting up an “Islamic Welfare State” whether one agrees with that agenda or not. PKR has similar political origins as the former Semangat 46, both came into existence as a result of differences within UMNO. But, DAP is a totally different political entity. Throughout its history, it could not forge any lasting cooperation with other opposition entities and or project a leadership role. It was only when Semangat 46 and PKR came into the ranks of the Opposition that DAP gained a wider acceptance. However, this was and is purely tactical so as to garner more electoral victories. DAP never aspired to be the ruling party and therefore had no long-term vision for the country. Being part of the “ruling coalition” that captured Penang and having the coveted Chief Minister post was a political bonus beyond its wildest dreams, as they had in 2003 given up all hope in capturing Penang when it abandoned the Tanjong 3 campaign!

Given the inherent political contradictions between DAP and PAS with regard to the establishment of an Islamic Welfare State, there is just no way that DAP will give support (other than lip-service) to PAS in those constituencies where DAP may have some influence over the Chinese voters.

The stand taken by Lim Guan Eng on the “Allah Issue” will be the straw that will break PAS’ camel’s back. Given that this issue is so close to the hearts of all PAS members and the blatant and very public refusal of DAP’s leadership (especially Karpal Singh and Lim Guan Eng) to make a tactical compromise is an indication that when the crunch comes, the retention of Penang as a DAP stronghold is a bigger prize for DAP than the prospect of securing Federal power.

The cold calculation is simple. If the Opposition loses out in the General Election, for DAP it is better to have “a bird in hand (i.e. Penang) than two in the bush” for it can survive such a defeat. And to buttress its long-term survival, it is not beyond DAP’s calculation to offer an olive branch to the BN on a similar understanding as what Gerakan accomplished in 1973.

Given this final equation, it is utterly stupid for the Chinese voters to give any support to DAP. DAP in Chinese parlance is a “Fun Kuat Jhai” i.e. a traitor, for DAP will assuredly betray PAS!

The soothsayer has spoken, “Beware the Ides of March” but this time, there will be no assassination of a Caesar, but instead we will witness the burial of Malaysia’s Brutus, Cassius and the other conspirators after the Second Battle of Philippi!