Which way will Johor voters go in GE13?

FOCUS The 13th general election offers a window of opportunity for change after 55 years of BN federal rule.

This has been created due mainly to communications technology which allows information to be uploaded within seconds anywhere, any time, via the Internet.

A second factor is the awakening of the people to the massive looting by those who walk the corridors of power.

The third relates to Anwar Ibrahim who has been able to forge a working coalition among PAS, DAP and PKR within Pakatan Rakyat.

During the 12th general election in 2008, DAP flags flew in Malay kampongs and PAS flags in Chinese new villages in the northern states. 

For the first time too, Malays voted for DAP and Chinese for PAS, leading to the Umno-led BN losing four states. But the political tsunami did not reach Johor.

Let us look at the scorecard for Johor to see how where the votes went and why this is deemed a BN ‘fixed deposit state’; why PKR has considered Johor a frontline state since early 2010; and why Anwar has been a frequent visitor.

The column ‘PAS/DAP’ and ‘DAP/PAS’ in the table indicates the percentage of votes obtained by either party in the five parliamentary seats contested in 2008.

The first four parliamentary seats were contested by a Chinese in the DAP seats and by a Malay in the PAS seats.

A similar trend was seen in all four constituencies - a large number of Chinese who voted for a DAP candidate did not vote for a PAS candidate; and a large number of Malays who voted for PAS did not vote for DAP.

So, despite the fact that DAP contested predominantly Chinese seats, it could not win more than five seats due to a large number of Malays who voted for PAS and not DAP.

This was equally true for PAS - a large number of Chinese who voted for DAP did not vote for the Islamic party. This reveals why the political tsunami failed to reach Johor.

The fifth parliamentary seat was contested by a Malay candidate from DAP. A large number of voters who voted for a Malay from DAP did not vote for a Malay from PAS. 

The question is: has this trend changed in February 2013? If it has, which way has it changed?

Will all the Chinese in Johor who will vote for DAP also vote for PAS? Will all the Malays in Johor who will vote for PAS also vote for DAP? Or they have not changed?  

Would it be wise to believe that voters in Johor have changed and hence, just work on one race and then rely on the other party be it PAS or DAP to deliver the votes of the other races? 

Or, would it simply be wiser to work on all races with top priority given to swing by Malays voters?

DAP and PKR

How did Johor voters vote in the 12th general election when faced with a Chinese candidate in both a parliamentary and state seat? 

Two parliamentary seats were contested by PKR, while the DAP contested a state seat under these. The ‘PKR/DAP’ and ‘DAP/PKR’ columns in the table indicate the percentage of votes obtained by either party.



It is noted that PKR’s Chinese candidate secured slightly more votes from all races in Tangkak and slightly fewer votes in Paloh, compared to DAP’s Chinese candidates. 

Overall, if Chinese sentiments in the 12th general election is still applicable today, there is no basis to the DAP’s claim that it can secure higher (at least 5 percent or more) Chinese votes than a PKR Chinese candidate. 

In general, more Chinese dumped BN, but not as many as in the northern states.

PAS and PKR

How did Johor voters vote in the 12th general election when faced with a Malay candidate in both a parliamentary and a state seat? 

PKR contested three parliamentary seats, while Pas contested a state seat under these. The ‘PKR/PAS’ and ‘PAS/PKR’ columns in the table indicate the percentage votes obtained by either party.



In general, the Chinese prefer a Malay candidate from PKR. However, there were mixed results (as in Batu Pahat and Tanjung Piai) when it came to a situation of Malays voting for Malay candidates from PKR, PAS or DAP.

If the sentiment and behaviour of voters in the 12th general election continues, then DAP will not be able to help PAS secure more Chinese votes, while PAS cannot help DAP to get more Malay votes in Johor. 

PAS will therefore have to work harder in the Chinese-majority areas and DAP will have to work harder in the Malay-dominated areas in Johor.

If the Johor Chinese prefer a Malay candidate from PKR, it is difficult to predict how Malays in Johor will choose. Hence, the political choice of Johor Malays will be critical to both BN and Pakatan Rakyat in the 13th general election.

These facts have stimulated PKR to take Anwar frequently into the Malay heartland since the middle of 2010. Johor PKR chief and PKR vice-president Chua Jui Meng was appointed to assist him to make inroads.

Although the police did not give Anwar a chance to speak in the initial period in Bukit Batu, Kulai and Rengit, Batu Pahat, his persistence bore fruit later.

Ceramahs featuring him began to draw larger and larger crowds after PKR threatened to take legal action against the local authorities and the police for abuse of power. 

In this way, Chua and Anwar have chiselled away at BN’s fortress in Johor.

PKR wishes to seal the support of the Malays in Johor before the 13th general election by taking Anwar to Rengit. Are Malays in Johor ready for him?

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STEVEN CHOONG SHIAU YOON is the Johor PKR election director.