BN in danger of losing 13 parliamentary seats in Sarawak

Based on the 2011 Sarawak state election results, BN is in danger of losing 13 parliamentary seats this time.

The six seats that Pakatan Rakyat is expected to win are Kuching, Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang, Bintulu and Miri. In addition, the opposition pact can also look forward to capturing Saratok, Sibu. Kapit, Limbang and Lawas.

If the voting trends of 2011 remain much the same today, BN should be able to win at least 18 of the 31 parliamentary seats in the state. And if sabotage among disgruntled members in the ruling coalition could be contained, BN can even win 25 or more seats as state BN chairman Taib Mahmud has predicted.

BN's major question lies with the Chinese voters in the state. If BN can further consolidate its Malay/Dayak/Melanau support base, it should be able to take the 25 seats which are not Chinese-majority.

The situation is similar in Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang and Miri. Although BN won these constituencies in 2008, the ruling coalition lost nine of the ten state constituencies under these four parliamentary seats, with the exception of Senadin under Miri, in 2011

As a matter of fact, the Pakatan candidate only narrowly lost to BN in this constituency.

Nevertheless, with SUPP's incumbent Stampin MP Datuk Yong Khoon Hian back in the race, Pakatan will face some resistance in wrestling this seat.

Kuching has been DAP's for the taking over the past two elections, and therefore DAP's incumbent Chong Cheng Jen is not expected to have much difficulty sailing past his BN opponent this time round.

In the by-election that followed the 2008 general elections, DAP won Sibu parliamentary seat for the first time ever. However, based on the subsequent state election results, it could be an uphill task for the party to keep this seat.

In 2008, SUPP's Robert Lau Hoi Chew successfully defended the Sibu parliamentary seat. After he passed away in 2010, DAP's Sarawak chairman Wong Ho Leng wrestled the seat in the subsequent by-election. Wong, nevertheless, is not fielded this time owing to illness.

BN took a total of 21,953 votes from the three state constituencies under Sibu in 2011 state election. DAP took 18,826 votes from Chinese-majority Bawang Assan and Pelawan, along with PKR's 2,408 votes in bumiputra-dominant Nangka, the total of 21,234 votes is still short of BN's by 719.

In other words, to retain Sibu, DAP will need at least 10-15% of bumi and Dayak votes, especially in Nangka.

The situation is completely opposite in Bintulu. To break the solid fortress of SPDP strongman Datuk Seri Tiong King Sing, DAP will need Chinese votes from Kidurong to offset BN's votes from the other two bumi-dominant state assembly seats.

During the 2011 state elections, DAP's candidate Chiew Chin Sing won 12,493 votes in Kidurong, and coupled with the 5,362 votes won by PKR candidates in the other two bumi state seats, DAP has good chances of capturing Bintulu in GE13.

PKR has good chances of winning in Limbang and Saratok. The party's vice chairman for Sarawak is the incumbent Krian (under Saratok) state assemblyman Ali Anak Biju. The other state seat is Kalaka currently held by PBB.

To win in Saratok, Ali Anak Biju will need to win in Kalaka. There were as many as 1,665 voters voted for the independent candidate in 2011. If thee voters cast their votes for Ali this time, Saratok could fall into the hands of Pakatan.

In Limbang, PKR is fielding the current Ba'Kelalan state assemblyman Baru Bian, the party's state chairman. DAP, meanwhile, is fielding Baru Langub in Lawas.

In Kapti, DAP is counting on the frustration of the indigenous Dayak voters to vote for its candidate Ramli Anak Malaka.

-Sin Chew Daily