Nomination April 20, polling May 2?

KUALA LUMPUR-APRIL 20 and May 2 have emerged as the likeliest dates for nomination and polling to take place.

While the Election Commission (EC) will reveal these details only tomorrow, pundits say April 20 is likely to be chosen for parties to officially name their candidates.

Those who spoke to the New Straits Times said this was a possible date, if one were to take into consideration that nomination had, by convention, been held within 10 days after the commission’s announcement in the past.

If this date is chosen, and given Prime Minister and Barisan Nasional chairman Datuk Seri Najib Razak's indication that the ruling coalition would announce its candidates a week before nomination day, the country can expect the list to be unveiled any time from this Saturday. This will be a departure from norm as BN had previously waited till the eleventh hour to disclose its line-up.

Polling, said pundits, would likely be on May 2.

"If nomination is on April 20, one has to consider the minimum 11-day campaigning period, which will bring the earliest potential date of polling to May 1, a public holiday that falls on a Wednesday," said one pundit.

"But if you consider the fact that May 1 (Labour Day) is in the middle of the week, then you would have to factor in travelling time. A cuti peristiwa (holiday to be replaced at a later date) can be announced for May 2 to carry out polling."

The pundits argue that to encourage people to travel back to their states to cast their votes, the prospect of them being able to spend a long weekend there after polling would also be a factor.

"May 2 is a Thursday. In Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu, Friday is not a working day and that would take care of voters in these states."

Some argue along a simpler line.

Early May, some of them contend, was ideal because "people would have had their salaries banked in".

"Because they have money, they will be more likely to travel to vote. It is a common perception that polling should never take place in the middle or end of the month."

Another theory is that the digits of 2, 5, 1 and 3, which represent the day, month and year that is May 2, add up to 11, which happens to be Najib's favourite number.

There are also 11 days between April 21 and May 1.

Najib's affinity for 11 is widely known as his car's licence plate is 11, while one of his homes is numbered as such.

Coincidentally, his late father, second prime minister Tun Abdul Razak Hussein, was born on March 11, 1922.

It is also possible that polling could take place on May 4 or 5.

A pundit, however, argued that May 4, falling on a Saturday, would not be a good date if one considered states like Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

"These are states with weekends on Friday and Saturday. Two of these states are opposition-held. It is common for Friday sermons to carry political intonation and this may have some effect on fence-sitters at the eleventh hour."

Another combination is for nomination to be held as early as April 13 or 14, with polling set for April 27.

"However, April 13 and 14 would put a damper on the prime minister's plan to announce the BN line-up a week before nomination day," said an analyst.

"That said, one has to remember that the prime minister does not have to announce BN's list of candidates before nomination day. It is not a legal requirement."

Najib had said, after last week's BN and Umno supreme council meeting, that revealing the candidates sooner than usual would provide ample time for them to introduce themselves to their constituents, while leaving enough time for campaign preparations.

"It will also allow us (BN) to gauge the public's reaction to them (candidates) so that we can mitigate any problem that arises."

Pundits have been speculating on the dates of nomination and polling since the April 3 dissolution of Parliament.

Other than these two dates, EC will also announce dates for the advance voting dates for military and police personnel and their spouses, and the postal voting day for certain personnel, EC workers and Malaysians living abroad.

Political analyst Datuk Dr Mohammad Agus Yusoff, of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, said nothing less than a 14-day campaigning would be good for the people to "savour" the election process.

"This is a celebration of the people's democratic right and they should be allowed to savour it.

"A pilihanraya (election) is a form of raya (celebration). The people should be given enough time to celebrate this democratic process and enjoy this important moment that comes only once every four or five years."

Some 13.3 million voters, including 5,200 living abroad, are eligible to vote in this election. A total of 222 parliamentary seats and 505 state seats will be contested.

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