PR set to implode after winning GE13?

VOTERS who have decided to back Barisan Nasional (BN) know what kind of cabinet composition to expect should BN return to power. The prime minister will be the president of Umno and his deputy in the party will also be the deputy prime minister. Each component party will have its seat allocation in the cabinet. The formula might be tweaked a little but voters roughly know what to expect from a BN government.

The same cannot be said of Pakatan Rakyat (PR) supporters. All they know is that a PR cabinet would comprise ministers from PKR, DAP and PAS. Although it is generally assumed the PR prime minister would be Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, even that is not very certain, given the noises from certain segments of PAS lately.

It's unclear who the deputy prime minister(s) would be although there is an assumption there would be up to three of them – one each from PAS, DAP and East Malaysia – assuming Anwar is the PM.

A bigger and more important question that PR supporters have to consider is whether a PR government will be able to stay together or whether it will quickly implode due to inter-party squabbles.

Right now, the parties are all on their best behaviour as they all have their eyes set on taking over Putrajaya. PAS and PKR, for example, have managed to compromise and sort out the seven overlapping seats where each party had its own candidate contesting.

The issue of hudud has also re-emerged, partly due to MCA's determination to make it an issue and partly because of certain segments of PAS prone to scoring own goals. As expected, DAP's Karpal Singh has responded forcefully to this, giving the impression of discord within PR.

PAS secretary-general Datuk Mustafa Ali has shrewdly tried to diffuse the situation by saying hudud is a PAS, not a PR, agenda. And that PAS would only implement hudud through democratic means. That's a remarkably adept way of admitting that while PAS still aspires for hudud to be implemented, it cannot do so without the agreement of all parties in the coalition.

The so-called Erdogan faction of PAS, which includes the likes of Khalid Samad, Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad and deputy president Mat Sabu, all see the big picture and understand the importance of compromise in order to achieve their common goal of taking over the government. But party hardliners like Datuk Dr Haron Din do not. He might be in the minority but he's not alone.

At the most recent PAS muktamar in November, several speakers called for PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang to be prime minister should PR come to power. Never mind that Hadi has never indicated he wants to be PM or that PAS spiritual adviser Datuk Abdul Nik Aziz Nik Mat supports the notion of Anwar as PM. The PAS hardliners want things their way.

Would this pose a problem if PR wins? It depends very much on the composition of the PR government. If PAS somehow emerges as the party with the most number of MPs in parliament, you can almost be certain there will be calls for its president to be PM and for its partners PKR and DAP to accept hudud.

This could very well lead to the crumbling of a PR government soon after it is formed. If, however, the configuration were different, there could be hope for PR to stay intact. Such a configuration calls for DAP to have the most number of seats, followed closely by PKR and finally by PAS in third place. It would also be helpful to have a significant East Malaysian presence in the mix.

In such a scenario, a numerically-dominant DAP would give way to PKR as the coalition leader, with Anwar as the PM. With PAS in third place, but not too far behind, it would still feel it has clout but not so much that it could insist on having everything its way. A strong East Malaysian presence in the mix would also help to moderate PAS.

What's wrong with PKR being the dominant party, you might ask? It would be better than having PAS as the dominant party for sure, but it would too closely mirror the BN situation of Umno being the dominant big brother with the others playing second fiddle to it. And if that's what the people want, they might as well vote BN back in power.

-thesundaily