Segamat, no easy walk in the park for Jui Meng

From a well respected federal minister to an ordinary man in the street. From a key leader in the ruling coalition to one in the opposition pact. From someone who told people not to act childish to one told likewise by others. From hiding away from public radar to open outpouring of disgruntlement. From having no place to go to some place he can now stake his future on.

Chua Jui Meng's more recent political journey has made a truly exciting and intriguing political soap opera of unexpected upheavals and dramatic twists.

His frequent turnarounds seem to illustrate the point that there are no permanent friends nor foes in politics.

Everything has to go back to square one. The naked political reality that lies before this PKR Johor chairman is: This is going to be your very last chance. Whether you can revive your political prominence will very much depend on the outcome of the Segamat battle.

Not an easy seat at all

There are 47,115 voters in the Segamat parliamentary constituency, of whom 21,502 or 45.64% are Chinese, 20,921 (44.4%) Malays and 4,692 (9.96%) Indians and others. Looking at the figures, this is going to be a mixed constituency that warrants some really good effort to win.

If the internal conflicts within Pakatan Rakyat could be resolved amicably, there are still chances for Jui Meng to clinch a "surprise win" and contribute positively towards Pakatan's advances towards Putrajaya.

If things go as expected, Jui Meng is to face off with human resources minister S. Subramaniam from MIC, who defeated DAP's Pang Hok Liong by a reduced majority of 2,991 in the 2008 elections.

A lot of changes took place during the last five years, impacting the stronghold of BN while arousing desires for change among the people in the state.

Segamat's residents are not to be exempted. They have loudly demanded the establishment of an independent Chinese secondary school in town, and this gives Jui Meng a glimmer of hope to unseat BN in Segamat.

However, Subramaniam has also worked very hard over the past five years and feedback from the voters has been largely positive. While he may not stop the drain of Chinese votes towards the opposition, he should be able to retain the solid support from the local Malays and Indians.

Notably, the electorate structure of Segamat has experienced some changes over the same period of time. There are now 6,407 more voters than in 2008, among whom 4,273 are Malays, bringing the Malay percentage higher from 40.9% to 44.4%. On the contrary, the figures for Chinese and Indian voters pale at 1,950 (a drop of 2.39% in overall electorate) and 184 (-1.11%) respectively.

Whether the surge of Malay voters could offset the negative swing of Chinese votes would be a key factor to determine the final outcome of the race.

Another delicate factor will be the Indians and other races who will assume the role of the ultimate kingmakers in a tightly fought battle.

-Sin Chew Daily