The obstacles to seizing Johor

Pakatan Rakyat takes Johor as its front-line state while party parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang wishes to start off a political tsunami in Johor. The success or failure of the battle in the state might be the key deciding whether Pakatan Rakyat can take over Putrajaya.

Pakatan Rakyat has sent important leaders to the state and spent great manpower and resources. The 53.70% of Malay voters would be the decisive factor.

A whirlwind has been set off in the Chinese community after Lim Kit Siang's announcement of contesting in Gelang Patah. Pakatan Rakyat is expected to gain 70% to 80% of Chinese votes. However, Malay voters seem a bit indifferent.

Johor Malays are a bit different from Kelantan Malays. The living doctrine of Kelantan Malays is religion while Johor Malays are having a strong nationalism. Umno is originated from Johor and Datuk Sri Onn Jaafar initiated the Peninsular Malay Movement of Johor on 3 January 1946 to protest the British Malayan Union and demand the restoration of the special status of the Malays. The spirit is still influencing Johor Malays today.

It is not easy for Pakatan Rakyat to gain Malay votes as PAS' religious stand and PKR's multi-racial concept are not that appealing in the state.

According to Lim Kit Siang's calculation, Pakatan Rakyat plans to seize 33 parliamentary seats in BN's deposit states, namely Johor, Sabah and Sarawak. Particularly in Johor, it eyes 10 parliamentary seats.

Among the 26 parliamentary seats in Johor, only three have more than half of Chinese voters, namely Kulai with 56.13%, Bakri with 53.21% and Gelang Patah with 52.41%.

There are 17 parliamentary seats with more than half of Malay voters, such as Pengerang has 88.43% and Kota Tinggi has 86.99%. Constituencies with more than 70% of Malay voters are Mersing, Parit Sulong, Bandar Tenggara and Pontian.

As for the remaining six seats, they have 30% to 40% of Chinese voters, including Kluang, with 49.26% of Chinese voters.

If Pakatan Rakyat gains 80% of Chinese votes and 20% of Malay votes, it could win a few Chinese-majority and mixed constituencies. And Pakatan Rakyat might be able to record a great success in Johor only if it is able to gain 30% of Malay votes.

In addition, Pakatan Rakyat also hopes to win 30 of the 56 state seats to seize the Johor regime. The 30 seats are: Stulang, Tanjong Puteri, Johor Jaya, Permas, Puteri Wangsa, Tiram, Skudai, Nusa Jaya, Pengkalan Rinting, Kempas, Senai, Bukit Batu, Bukit Permai, Pekan Nenas, Mengkibol, Penggaram, Bentayan, Sungai Abong, Bekok, Jementah, Tangkak, Paloh, Yong Peng, Mahkota, Layang-layang, Parit Yaani, Maharani, Gambir, Tenang and Pemanis.

Twelve state seats have more than half of Chinese voters, namely Jementah, Bekok, Tangkak, Bentayan, Yong Peng, Penggaram, Mengkibol, Stulang, Skudai, Bukit Batu, Senai and Pekan Nenas.

However, 37 state seats have more than half of Malay voters, and most are Malay-majority constituencies, such as Penawar has 98.36% of Malay voters, Sedili has 96.76% and Sri Medan has 90.33%. There are 23 state seats with more than 60% of Malay voters.

Therefore, it is more difficult to seize the state regime compared to gaining parliamentary seats.

Pakatan Rakyat has promised in its Johor election manifesto that it will protect the special status of the Malays. Whether it can gain more Malay votes or not, it depends on the development in the following few days.

-Sin Chew Daily