Palanivel axes away, is Saravanan next?

In the last few weeks, MIC president G.Palanivel has awoken from his slumber to strengthen his position to face a challenge for his presidency by changing the state chairmen who are likely to be against him. 

In a series of political moves, Palanivel changed the state chairmen and key office bearers of Malacca, Pahang, Perak, Penang and Kedah. For Johor, the state chairman was retained but the key office bearers were changed.

Yesterday, the Tamil media speculated that Palanivel is set to axe Deputy Youth and Sports Minister M Saravanan (right) next. 

Saravanan is the chairman of Wilayah Persekutuan MIC and he is expected to be replaced by Chandrasekar Suppiah who is currently vice-chairman.
 
The Tamil media reports also predicted that Segmbut MIC division chairman V Rajoo is likely to be appointed as the state vice-chairman. 

If this change is executed by Palanivel then it will mean that it is now a full-blown war between the two emerging camps in MIC as Saravanan is openly leading a campaign to oust Palanivel. 

Last week, Palanivel also made another startling decision by removing S Vell Paari as a central working committee (CWC) member which is seen as a clear blow to his predecessor Samy Vellu, who is Vell Paari's father. Usha Nanthini, MIC national Puteri leader was also removed as a CWC member.

Palanivel replaced them with two new CWC members namely, S Sothinathan, a former vice- president and former MIC deputy president S Subramniam’s son, Sunthar.

Can the new recruits save Palanivel?
At the outset, these changes may seem to be strengthening Palanivel's position and help him retain his presidency but political observers following the MIC elections think otherwise. 

They see these changes as that of a desperado since the presidential election is barely two months away and whether these new recruits will be able to push up Palanivel's dwindling support is doubtful.

A veteran MIC leader said: "Palanivel has never been a 'ground' man in MIC. His entire rise in politics was designed and executed by Samy Vellu. Now, Palanivel is making colossal mistakes by cutting off his ties with Samy Vellu's support base in MIC which will bring disaster to his presidency."

"Removing Saravanan will only further aggravate the situation and will help opposition to Palanivel's leadership swell and crystallize behind (current number two) Dr S Subramaniam."

The veteran MIC man also pointed out that this is because the state leaders will never be able to control the branch leaders when it comes to voting. 

"This is the first time MIC branch chairmen will be going to ballot boxes as voters and the ground seems to be equally divided. So, Palanivel's moves should be aimed at forging a cordial relationship with the branch chairmen by seeking their support directly. 

"By removing current leaders and replacing them with new faces, Palanivel is forcing the branch chairmen to take a stand and many are taking a stand against the president by sticking behind the sacked leaders" he further said.

The next question is will these new recruits bring back the support base Palanivel is vying for? 

Branch chairmen are not excited about the replacements with one branch chairman pointing out: "These are presidential appointments which do not affect ground sentiments. If a new president is elected on the Sept 22, all these new appointments would automatically come to an end. So what is the big deal?" 

"The branch chairmen are not rushing to throw their support behind these new leaders but they are observing cautiously."

New recruits are not serious players

Palanivel's new recruits are also not seen as serious political players who will be able to sway the groundswell against Palanivel.

"Chandrasekar Suppiah is a high profile businessman who never keeps in touch with branch and division leaders unlike Saravanan who is at it almost everyday. He can never match Saravanan and will not be able to pull even few voters away from Saravanan," said a branch chairman from MIC Wilayah Persekutuan.

Another branch chairman from Negeri Sembilan thinks that Sothinathan’s appointment as a CWC member is a bit too late and will not have any impact on the outcome of the presidential election. 

He further said: "Sothinathan (right) stood against Palanivel in the race for the party's deputy presidency in 2009 by campaigning that Palanivel is not the right leader for the post. Only two months ago, Palanivel refused him the Teluk Kemang Parliament seat in GE-13. Now all of a sudden Sothinathan accepts a CWC appointment from the same Palanivel which is real hypocrisy."

Sothinathan's move in supporting Palanivel will also drive away (former deputy president) Subramaniam's loyalists from Palanivel as Subramaniam’s supporters still feel that Sothinathan spoiled their leader’s chances of clinching a victory against Palanivel in the 2009 party elections. 

Sothinathan polled 280 votes and Subramaniam  polled 574 votes. Together they polled 827 votes out of 1,500 delegates, 198 votes more than the  629 votes received by Palanivel. Many believe that Subramaniam could have won as deputy president if not for Sothinathan’s entry as the third candidate.

So Palanivel and Sothinathan joining hands now clearly indicate a marriage of convenience without any serious political repercussions.

As for Sunthar's appointment, it is clear that it is for the purpose of ensuring the support of Tamil daily Makkal Osai which he controls. Sunthar, as a new face does not wield much influence politically among his father’s supporters.

J Jay Raj is a long-time MIC member and a keen observer of Malaysian politics.